Silver, Commodities, Cycles

yep, silver is looking as volatile as ever. what else is not looking good? base metals... generally speaking, volatility precedes declines.. i never know much of anything, but it appears to me that silver should be heading much lower, bottom line is you never know much of anything and it's all a big bet. if you take all the gold in the world, you have about a cubic centimeter of gold for each person, and you have around 30 of those per person in silver. in china, we are seeing real, legitimate inflation. in the usa, however, i think we saw stagflation for the last 2 years, and finally home prices have turned south again, and if we are lucky we'll see deflation. if china starts faltering, deflation will be locked in. usually, i'm good at picking out bottoms in things and identifying opportunity looking up, i have little to no experience calling crashes... but i am looking around and everything doesnt make sense... everything looks unsustainable... i've identified in the past that when global economies sputter and industrial demand slumps as i expect it to in the next 6 months, that commodity prices come down. the great news about this is that commodity prices have been treated like an asset class... so if we see a pullback, it should be bigger.. over time, things have continued to get more and more intertwined and bubbles have been redeployed. generally what you'd expect to see is the lack of setting new highs, we've seen this. then this would be followed by drooping commodity prices, by a closely followed stronger dollar, again, seen. and then you'd just expect to see this cycle lower.... just my musings... thought i'd share.