I documented a lot of conversations for the sake of showing that what I am doing takes an emotionless, iron stomache. ----------------------------------------The following happened on November 8, 2008 Bradford86 (11:09:24 AM): so, cedc? Dad (11:09:47 AM): i have no money Bradford86 (11:34:45 AM): blah. Dad (11:34:53 AM): well done so far Bradford86 (11:34:59 AM): i'm losing my a$$ Dad (11:35:01 AM): rest fo the market is dying Dad (11:35:16 AM): be patient Bradford86 (11:35:25 AM): i'm thinking it's going to go lower Dad (11:35:44 AM): my guess is a bounce at 8,000 again Bradford86 (11:36:56 AM): i need to figure out a student loan Bradford86 (11:38:41 AM): blah. Bradford86 (11:38:57 AM): cause i think the USA is going down the tubes Bradford86 (11:39:13 AM): i think we could go down another 30-40% Dad (11:42:24 AM): remember, the market is a leading indicator Dad (11:42:33 AM): and at 8,000 no one sells Bradford86 (11:42:43 AM): what about russia? Bradford86 (11:42:49 AM): theyre down huge Dad (11:42:49 AM): at 8,000 you ahve the hard holds Dad (11:43:00 AM): russia is the wild west Dad (11:43:20 AM): if you pllay in russia you are gambling with politics Bradford86 (11:43:26 AM): true. Bradford86 (11:43:54 AM): how much longer do you think this crazy turmoil is going to last? Bradford86 (11:44:15 AM): 6 months from now. Bradford86 (11:44:23 AM): i dont think it will be worse Dad (11:44:25 AM): if you speculate with money you need, which is exactly what you chose to do, you will losemost of the tme Dad (11:44:35 AM): no i think we can wait it out Dad (11:45:02 AM): but you are using every ounce of your "good will grandma" safety net doing it Dad (11:45:35 AM): you have no income Dad (11:45:41 AM): you have only expenses Dad (11:45:53 AM): and you gambled your college funding away Dad (11:46:02 AM): exactly what i told you not to do Dad (11:47:10 AM): long term you are still strong because 4 years from now you should be making 60-100 grand Dad (11:47:43 AM): but the reality is the economic climate is getting worse daily and thos high flying jobs are fewer Dad (11:48:23 AM): but you have positioned yourself to be very highly competitive for those positions Dad (11:48:28 AM): and you are networking Dad (11:48:40 AM): hence your long term outlook is goof Dad (11:48:43 AM): off to golf Dad (11:48:52 AM): good, not goof Dad signed off at 11:49:24 AM. Dad is offline and will receive your IMs when signing back in. Dad signed off at 4:55:28 PM. Dad is offline and will receive your IMs when signing back in. Dad signed on at 5:04:46 PM. Bradford86 (5:33:08 PM): anything exciting/ Dad (5:33:14 PM): nah Dad (5:33:20 PM): ride the horse Bradford86 (5:33:22 PM): i met this kid today Dad (5:33:42 PM): ok Bradford86 (5:33:43 PM): he used Artificial intelligence/neural networks and fuzzy logic.. Dad (5:33:52 PM): ok Bradford86 (5:33:53 PM): to make money Dad (5:34:09 PM): the feds will catch up to him Bradford86 (5:34:13 PM): starting with just $500 Bradford86 (5:34:22 PM): and $9 trades Dad (5:35:51 PM): this obama thing realy has legs......i think it is great Bradford86 (5:36:01 PM): what do you mean? Dad (5:36:05 PM): its all over the local news here Bradford86 (5:37:12 PM): i got an email from purdue Bradford86 (5:37:19 PM): bills are coming out mid-november Dad (5:37:26 PM): ok Bradford86 (5:39:44 PM): yep. Bradford86 (5:40:02 PM): i'm going to need to come up with about $16,000 Dad (5:40:17 PM): for the spring? Bradford86 (5:40:20 PM): yes. Bradford86 (5:40:38 PM): tuition is $11000 Bradford86 (5:40:56 PM): room and board is 2000 Bradford86 (5:41:05 PM): food is $2000 Dad (5:41:09 PM): well where are you going to get that? Bradford86 (5:41:24 PM): and then i need $1000 to transition to a summer job and prepayments of stuff Dad (5:41:36 PM): ok Bradford86 (5:42:01 PM): well. i only am selling my stocks if i have to. Bradford86 (5:42:11 PM): that's last resort. Bradford86 (5:42:24 PM): i am willing to take on loans --- up to $100K Dad (5:42:49 PM): well they will take your stocks as collateral Bradford86 (5:42:54 PM): i already have $15000 in loans Bradford86 (5:43:23 PM): but, it's forecasted i'll need another $20,000 in loans over the next year Bradford86 (5:43:30 PM): assuming worst case scenerio Bradford86 (5:43:38 PM): actually.. $24000 is worst case Bradford86 (5:44:05 PM): so that puts me at 15000+16000+24000=50K Bradford86 (5:44:44 PM): that's worst case. Bradford86 (5:44:49 PM): assuming i can get loans Bradford86 (5:44:59 PM): and assuming all my stocks are worth 0 Dad (5:45:00 PM): well we had it set so you got thru without a loan Bradford86 (5:45:27 PM): not really --- but sure Dad (5:45:30 PM): and we have argued against speculation every step of the way Bradford86 (5:45:35 PM): yep Bradford86 (5:45:40 PM): i'm not asking for mercy. Dad (5:45:48 PM): i know Dad (5:46:01 PM): but 50,000 was the mortgae on my first house Dad (5:46:14 PM): and all you will have is thin air Bradford86 (5:46:22 PM): ? Bradford86 (5:46:37 PM): ha. Dad (5:50:15 PM): you have potential Bradford86 (5:50:25 PM): that's about it. Dad (5:50:57 PM): have you approached a bank about taking your sotcks for collateral? Bradford86 (5:51:09 PM): no. Dad (5:51:14 PM): ok Dad (5:51:36 PM): ok Dad (5:51:49 PM): you have a lot of Tom bradford in you Bradford86 (5:52:06 PM): i agree. Bradford86 (5:52:13 PM): i'm not risk averse Dad (5:52:14 PM): I never went bankrupt even using my wildest schemes Dad (5:52:30 PM): he went bankrupt and sold cars for 6 months Dad (5:52:57 PM): but he pulled out of it only after he changed his risk by working for someone else Bradford86 (5:53:15 PM): interesting. Dad (5:53:22 PM): if he had his own business with no one to control him, he would go under again Bradford86 (5:53:39 PM): haha Dad (5:53:51 PM): that's the truth Bradford86 (5:53:52 PM): you're probably right Bradford86 (5:53:58 PM): he loves growth Dad (5:54:04 PM): tom has no concept of money Dad (5:54:08 PM): he jsut spends it Bradford86 (5:54:10 PM): the aspect of growth is contageous Dad (5:54:27 PM): well it contradicts my theory Dad (5:54:38 PM): somewhere in the middle is the right way Bradford86 (5:54:43 PM): my theory is this: Bradford86 (5:54:50 PM): i've got 40 years Bradford86 (5:55:16 PM): and i'm getting a degree in something that is in demand and a masters in business Bradford86 (5:55:40 PM): playing around with $40K right now isn't unfeasible. Bradford86 (5:55:57 PM): and, i'd rather play now than in 6 months. Dad (5:56:03 PM): you dont have a job yet Dad (5:56:18 PM): you ar eplaying with other people's money Bradford86 (5:56:19 PM): i will get a job unless i become disabled Bradford86 (5:56:28 PM): if i get hit by a car Bradford86 (5:56:29 PM): or die Bradford86 (5:56:32 PM): or something Bradford86 (5:56:37 PM): then all bets are off Dad (5:56:54 PM): i would prefer you play more conservative until you have your own money Dad (5:57:19 PM): then if you go bankrupt on some wild scheme or scandal, it is your problem, not ours Dad (5:57:44 PM): it took me a long time to build a safetynet Bradford86 (5:58:01 PM): mom was knitting the safety net the entire time Dad (5:58:06 PM): yep Dad (5:58:24 PM): but i was the one making sure it was reasonable Dad (5:59:02 PM): i was the one who demanded we pay off the house Dad (5:59:15 PM): i was the one who set up the aggressive college plan Dad (5:59:43 PM): i dont buy anything, ever Bradford86 (5:59:47 PM): you are a julie. Bradford86 (5:59:53 PM): julie's 90% you Dad (5:59:58 PM): there are two ways to live Dad (6:00:08 PM): lots of ways to live Bradford86 (6:00:17 PM): in debt or in cash? Dad (6:00:40 PM): but if you decide to go big, you will soon have obligations to other people Dad (6:00:48 PM): and you will be another richard Dad (6:01:11 PM): its fine once you ahve your own money Dad (6:01:30 PM): and in the long run, borrowing from gma is the right thing to do Dad (6:01:40 PM): selling at a low is not a good idea Dad (6:02:07 PM): however, you were set to pay offeverything thru your senior year Dad (6:02:19 PM): and maybe have to borrow 15,000 for the mba Bradford86 (6:02:34 PM): you're right Bradford86 (6:02:39 PM): without the co-op Dad (6:02:44 PM): now you are looking at 50,000 Bradford86 (6:02:51 PM): i was set to be -15000 before graduation Dad (6:02:57 PM): 10,000 of which is Julies Bradford86 (6:03:07 PM): i only owe julie 6000 Bradford86 (6:03:25 PM): and the purpose of that is to teach her what a loan is. Dad (6:03:45 PM): well you need to learn what cashflow management is Bradford86 (6:03:49 PM): i tried to make her think about money --- but she failed credit cards Bradford86 (6:03:50 PM): haha Dad (6:04:02 PM): she only blew it once Bradford86 (6:04:23 PM): 5/3 was a terrible idea that i vetoed from day 1 Dad (6:04:36 PM): at any rate....i need to go Bradford86 (6:04:39 PM): how's mom? Dad (6:04:43 PM): try to elarn from this Dad (6:04:50 PM): she is just driving in Bradford86 (6:05:00 PM): "glen says hi" Bradford86 (6:05:07 PM): "my ipod kind of works" Dad (6:05:17 PM): only because glen wants her to buy cedc? Dad (6:05:19 PM): lol Bradford86 (6:05:19 PM): "it breaks down and works about 1/4 of the time" Dad (6:05:39 PM): well you may want to buy a new one or get one for xmas Dad (6:05:49 PM): gtg Dad signed off at 6:05:56 PM. Dad is offline and will receive your IMs when signing back in. Dad (6:36:54 PM): did you understand my point? Bradford86 (6:37:57 PM): yes Dad (6:38:13 PM): at this point, your best move is to borrow Dad (6:38:52 PM): however, you have to look past your own ego to learn responsible cashflow planning Dad (6:40:01 PM): you should have kept at least 10,000 out for this spring somewhere safe in a CD Dad (6:40:23 PM): you dont'e beleive in paper trading, which is what doug hall does Dad (6:41:10 PM): now your backk is against the wall Dad (6:43:07 PM): at any rate.....you need to slow it down Bradford86 (6:43:10 PM): interesting. Bradford86 (6:43:26 PM): i concur. Dad (6:43:26 PM): and look at borrowing this money as an admission of failure of your plan Bradford86 (6:43:32 PM): it definately is Dad (6:43:49 PM): now, figure out a plan that works Dad (6:44:15 PM): you are using up "good will" early Dad (6:44:39 PM): you are essentially supposed to be standing on your own right now Dad (6:44:51 PM): and you ahve to borrow from grandma Dad (6:45:10 PM): and,again, right now it is the best strategy Dad (6:45:33 PM): but a good manager learns from these kinds of huge blunders Dad (6:46:03 PM): so, that is the point... Dad (6:46:12 PM): good move to borrow Bradford86 (6:46:13 PM): i'm definately not standing on my own Dad (6:46:23 PM): better move to learn from this huge blunder Dad (6:47:00 PM): if you had paper traded, and put your "gatta have it" money away, you would be miles ahead. Bradford86 (6:47:15 PM): well, that's true Dad (6:47:21 PM): all it takes is a solid market move Dad (6:47:30 PM): to let you tell me i told you so Dad (6:47:43 PM): and im hoping it will happen Bradford86 (6:49:00 PM): i'm into the realm of "i cant afford to gamble" Dad is offline and will receive your IMs when signing back in. Dad (9:07:56 PM): keep next friday night open Dad (9:08:19 PM): if you want a free dinner Dad (9:08:28 PM): It is Julie's birthday Dad (9:09:06 PM): we will meet you1/2 way Logansport or North Judson Dad signed off at 9:27:12 PM. Dad is offline and will receive your IMs when signing back in. Dad signed on at 10:31:32 PM. Dad signed off at 10:49:32 PM. Dad is offline and will receive your IMs when signing back in. Dad signed on at 7:09:54 AM. Dad signed off at 7:15:23 AM. Dad is offline and will receive your IMs when signing back in. Dad signed off at 3:53:19 PM. Dad is offline and will receive your IMs when signing back in. Dad (6:35:13 PM): there? Dad signed off at 7:22:01 PM. Dad is offline and will receive your IMs when signing back in. Dad signed on at 7:36:34 PM. Bradford86 (7:37:32 PM): hey Dad (7:38:26 PM): hey Bradford86 (7:38:31 PM): what's up? Dad (7:39:03 PM): next friday we are going to take Julie out for her birthday dinner Dad (7:39:10 PM): you are invited Dad (7:39:22 PM): we will meet whoever 1/2 way Bradford86 (7:39:38 PM): great. Dad (7:39:40 PM): are your mab classes late classes? Dad (7:39:49 PM): probably logansport Bradford86 (7:40:07 PM): i get out at 1230 usually Dad (7:40:13 PM): there is a very nice ponderosa in logansport Dad (7:40:31 PM): im not sure what else is there Bradford86 (7:40:40 PM): well, me either Bradford86 (7:40:49 PM): i dont know why we're doing it Dad (7:40:50 PM): ok Dad (7:40:59 PM): julie's birthday Bradford86 (7:41:02 PM): haha. Bradford86 (7:41:15 PM): i'm probably dumping cbi and getting more bucy Dad (7:41:25 PM): ok Bradford86 (7:41:26 PM): cbi has had too many 1-time costs Bradford86 (7:41:36 PM): i dont like that. Dad (7:41:50 PM): the big decision will be how long the govt carries the Big 3 Dad (7:42:00 PM): and how much money can we borrow? Bradford86 (7:42:08 PM): good question Dad (7:49:16 PM): yep Dad (7:49:38 PM): take my concern as advice Dad (7:50:04 PM): your overall strategy is cash management, not total gambling/speculation Bradford86 (7:50:27 PM): my concern is that i have no money ---- i've squandered it all Dad (7:50:40 PM): not squandered yet Dad (7:50:56 PM): invested in highly speculative stocks yes Dad (7:51:16 PM): what has cedc done the last two days? Bradford86 (7:51:30 PM): i think it's at 29 Dad (7:51:51 PM): your options are at 30? Bradford86 (7:52:02 PM): yes Dad (7:52:14 PM): ok...can you just let it sit for the next 30 days? Bradford86 (7:52:23 PM): let cedc sit for 30 days? Bradford86 (7:52:28 PM): of course Dad (7:52:32 PM): your portfolio Bradford86 (7:52:32 PM): i'm letting that ride Bradford86 (7:52:43 PM): well, i need to make a decision on cbi Dad (7:52:54 PM): xin was up Bradford86 (7:53:01 PM): yep, i grow bearish Bradford86 (7:53:09 PM): as stocks go up, i grow bearish Bradford86 (7:53:44 PM): bucy is kind of like cedc right now Bradford86 (7:53:53 PM): unfortunately, bucy options are more expensive Bradford86 (7:53:57 PM): so, i'm not buying options Dad (7:54:00 PM): you need to be patient,,,choose reasonable stocks and quit making ameritrade rich Bradford86 (7:54:21 PM): that's the thing --- what do i do when i decide that some of my stocks aren't reasonable anymore? Dad (7:54:51 PM): how can they go from reasonable to unreasonable in 15 days? Bradford86 (7:57:04 PM): Chicago Bridge & Iron Company N.V. announced that it is adjusting its fiscal 2008 revenue guidance to $5.9 billion to $6.1 billion and earnings guidance to a $0.10 to $0.30 loss per share. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts are expecting the Company to report revenue of $6.1 billion for fiscal 2008. Bradford86 (7:57:33 PM): they've chalked up 3 stupid losses over the last 2 years Bradford86 (7:57:41 PM): i thought it was a 1-time thing Bradford86 (7:57:45 PM): i'm not so sure anymore. Dad (7:57:57 PM): how much have you lost on the stock? Bradford86 (7:58:04 PM): cbi? Bradford86 (7:58:20 PM): probably big Bradford86 (7:58:49 PM): http://community.investopedia.com/news/IA/2008/Cracks-Appear-Around-CBI-CBI1104.aspx?partner=YahooSA Dad (7:58:53 PM): well at least you won't have to pay taxes this year Dad (7:58:59 PM): you will get it all back Bradford86 (7:59:32 PM): that's a bad way to look at it Dad (8:00:16 PM): one of the cedc dirctors just did something with 400,000 shares Bradford86 (8:00:23 PM): haha Dad (8:00:47 PM): looks like just a book keeping thing Bradford86 (8:01:01 PM): probably redeemed options? Bradford86 (8:01:03 PM): who knows. Dad (8:01:53 PM): well it is on yahoo cedc page Bradford86 (8:03:30 PM): ok Bradford86 (8:03:40 PM): what are you suggesting? Dad (8:05:01 PM): if you sell the dog, is it in your account or someone elses? Bradford86 (8:05:32 PM): they are all mine --- thats how i treat them Dad (8:05:59 PM): will you lose money or is it someone elses? Bradford86 (8:06:09 PM): this is someone elses Dad (8:07:12 PM): do you know how much money you actually have that is in your name in your accounts? Bradford86 (8:07:28 PM): 9+17+1 Dad (8:07:48 PM): how much was invested? Bradford86 (8:08:04 PM): 14+28 Dad (8:08:21 PM): where did you get 28000? Bradford86 (8:08:49 PM): you keep forgetting that i worked 3 rotations at GE and i dont spend money on anything but food/alcohol/rent/school Bradford86 (8:08:55 PM): gasoline Dad (8:09:19 PM): is bradford brother 10000 included in that? Dad (8:09:22 PM): or julie? Bradford86 (8:09:29 PM): mine is Bradford86 (8:09:35 PM): bradford bros is Bradford86 (8:09:40 PM): julies went to college Bradford86 (8:10:13 PM): that was the point of julies Dad (8:10:35 PM): so you ahve 27,000 in assets does that include you iras? Bradford86 (8:10:40 PM): yes Dad (8:10:45 PM): ouch Bradford86 (8:11:00 PM): college costs 10000 Bradford86 (8:11:18 PM): and i've lost about 15000 Dad (8:11:22 PM): well you have time Dad (8:11:27 PM): to recover Dad (8:11:43 PM): i just dont trust the little league stocks Bradford86 (8:11:54 PM): which ones? Dad (8:12:01 PM): but they ahve history Dad (8:12:22 PM): at any rate....im hoping you have lost your teflon image Bradford86 (8:12:29 PM): my teflon? Dad (8:12:32 PM): and some of your mispalced confidence Dad (8:12:42 PM): read some of your early writings Dad (8:12:57 PM): Go Big or Go Home Dad (8:13:05 PM): which way are you going? Bradford86 (8:13:13 PM): i'll be in your driveway tomorrow Dad (8:13:24 PM): that's thr point. Bradford86 (8:13:31 PM): do you understand the best i'm making? Bradford86 (8:13:36 PM): bets* Dad (8:13:40 PM): yes Bradford86 (8:13:43 PM): ok. Dad (8:14:09 PM): by borrowing 16,000 fro your gma, you are betting the markets will go up Bradford86 (8:14:22 PM): well, the other way to do it is to sell out everything Bradford86 (8:14:31 PM): so yes, that is what i'm betting Dad (8:14:36 PM): your safety net is the suppsoed cush job you will get when you graduate Dad (8:15:29 PM): so you are betting other people's money on unknown but probable future events Dad (8:16:30 PM): this economy right now has no effect on mom and I because we dont need the money Dad (8:16:51 PM): at any rate...enjoy your weekend Bradford86 (8:16:58 PM): haha Dad (8:17:02 PM): do you have walkaround money? Bradford86 (8:17:16 PM): you wish Dad (8:17:32 PM): so you are tightening down on everything Bradford86 (8:17:49 PM): i havent been to the bars in a few weeks Dad (8:18:08 PM): well don't be so tight you ruin your senior year Dad (8:18:19 PM): you boxed yourself into a little corner Bradford86 (8:18:26 PM): yes, i did. Bradford86 (8:18:37 PM): a corner with a 1 year bailout time frame Bradford86 (8:18:45 PM): bailout or bailin Dad (8:19:27 PM): are you saying that to graduate, you need 16 from gma now, 16 in the fall and 16 more next spring? Bradford86 (8:20:06 PM): i was planning to make this next falls tuition in the summer Dad (8:20:18 PM): ok Bradford86 (8:20:23 PM): but even without "gambling" Dad (8:20:24 PM): and live on what? Bradford86 (8:20:33 PM): i was set for a deficit of 20000 Bradford86 (8:20:36 PM): actually more Bradford86 (8:20:39 PM): like 30,000 Dad (8:21:33 PM): sucks Bradford86 (8:21:41 PM): dont worry about it. Bradford86 (8:21:48 PM): i just need the fafsa filled out correctly Bradford86 (8:22:34 PM): i just turned my debt from 30,000 to 46000 as it stands Dad (8:22:46 PM): ouch Bradford86 (8:22:48 PM): but, i'm very confident that over the next year.. Bradford86 (8:23:02 PM): the market is going to do something Bradford86 (8:23:06 PM): up, down or sideways Dad (8:23:08 PM): i think the market will recover half Dad (8:23:18 PM): how are you going to pay Julie back though? Bradford86 (8:23:21 PM): if the market recovers half, i double my money. Bradford86 (8:24:11 PM): if i had to choose a time in the last 10 years to be "all-in" Bradford86 (8:24:15 PM): what do you think? Dad (8:24:31 PM): i think she can get through sophomore year with just an interest payment this summer Bradford86 (8:24:41 PM): julie has a lot of cash Dad (8:24:44 PM): or maybe just 1/2 of it back Bradford86 (8:24:44 PM): julie needs a summer job Dad (8:24:55 PM): well she will get one Bradford86 (8:25:09 PM): how much of julie's money have we lost? Dad (8:25:25 PM): toms deal? Dad (8:25:35 PM): we wont need that until senior year Dad (8:25:43 PM): and im confident that will recover Bradford86 (8:25:58 PM): why's that? Dad (8:26:05 PM): aapl Dad (8:26:10 PM): and agu Dad (8:26:19 PM): both traaditional strong stocks Bradford86 (8:26:50 PM): the only question i'm asking is, how long is this depression Dad (8:26:52 PM): julie should be able to get 4 years unscathed Bradford86 (8:27:02 PM): julie should come out debt free without even having to work a job Dad (8:27:09 PM): yes Bradford86 (8:27:19 PM): her college is about 1/8 as expensive as mine Bradford86 (8:27:30 PM): she's a lucky duck Bradford86 (8:27:33 PM): i'm the ugly duckling Dad (8:27:37 PM): because she went after scholarships and got lucky with the state Dad (8:27:39 PM): yep Bradford86 (8:27:44 PM): ha.. haha Dad (8:27:58 PM): just stay focused Bradford86 (8:28:03 PM): i applied for 2 scholarships a month from senior year in college through sophomore year of college Dad (8:28:20 PM): you got a couple Bradford86 (8:28:26 PM): nothing that i applied for Dad (8:28:35 PM): i was never too worried because my plan was solid Dad (8:28:45 PM): we had oyour 4 years paid for Bradford86 (8:28:50 PM): well Bradford86 (8:28:54 PM): yep Bradford86 (8:29:02 PM): and then i decided to do the 3+2 Bradford86 (8:29:13 PM): an extra 30,000 and 70000 in foregone income Dad (8:29:15 PM): maybe i should not have just given you the cah up front Bradford86 (8:29:29 PM): and then i put 40000 into the market Dad (8:29:34 PM): so that was my fault Bradford86 (8:29:38 PM): and turned it into 25000 Bradford86 (8:29:45 PM): you didnt make a mistake. Dad (8:29:47 PM): so far Bradford86 (8:29:51 PM): nobody made a mistake. Bradford86 (8:29:58 PM): just relax Bradford86 (8:30:08 PM): i'm not afraid of debt Bradford86 (8:30:21 PM): most business have it Dad (8:30:39 PM): using my strategy, you would be getting a CD for the balance your last semester Bradford86 (8:30:56 PM): i wouldnt have money using your strategy Bradford86 (8:31:05 PM): i would have graduated in 3.5 years Bradford86 (8:31:07 PM): with a co-op Dad (8:31:09 PM): paper trading is what i suggested early on Dad (8:31:27 PM): doesnt matter Bradford86 (8:31:30 PM): the time frame has been 4 months Bradford86 (8:31:37 PM): the 4 worst months i've ever seen Dad (8:31:39 PM): but i will handle maddie totally differently Bradford86 (8:31:47 PM): why's that? Bradford86 (8:31:59 PM): just give it to her and let her decide Dad (8:32:01 PM): she spends money anyway Dad (8:32:07 PM): i wont do that Dad (8:32:17 PM): we will set up a safe 4 yr plan Bradford86 (8:32:36 PM): just be ready. Bradford86 (8:32:59 PM): but, i am documenting these pessimistic conversations Dad (8:33:07 PM): i just hope the economy recovers in time for her Bradford86 (8:33:18 PM): why? Bradford86 (8:33:26 PM): you act like money is an issue? Bradford86 (8:33:29 PM): are you financially strapped? Dad (8:33:42 PM): no..not until im 65 Dad (8:33:46 PM): you are Bradford86 (8:33:54 PM): my issue is getting loans in the near term Dad (8:33:55 PM): and i feel someresponsibility for you Bradford86 (8:33:58 PM): and i found a solution. Bradford86 (8:34:18 PM): my portfolio at worst case scenerio is worth 10,000 Dad (8:34:29 PM): ok Bradford86 (8:34:39 PM): and my ira worst case is 7000 Bradford86 (8:34:46 PM): this is the worst case right now. Dad (8:35:19 PM): ok Bradford86 (8:35:25 PM): if it cost me 15000 to do something that i actually enjoy doing, so be it Dad (8:35:34 PM): well give yourself a living wage Bradford86 (8:35:45 PM): i really cant. and that's ok Dad (8:35:49 PM): christmas money is not that far off Bradford86 (8:36:09 PM): haha, i will survive. Dad (8:36:27 PM): i know and you will look back on this as the fun times Bradford86 (8:36:33 PM): what i need to do is take out as much student loans as possible unless the family wants to prefer it Dad (8:36:41 PM): but you used to throw around money like water Bradford86 (8:36:48 PM): i am very confident that i will make all my money back in 6 months Bradford86 (8:37:03 PM): like water? Dad (8:37:13 PM): realtively Bradford86 (8:37:13 PM): what did i buy that didnt add value to my life? Dad (8:37:21 PM): lol Bradford86 (8:37:26 PM): everything i paid a lot for i use a lot Dad (8:37:41 PM): at any rate...... Bradford86 (8:37:42 PM): the sunglasses have you baffled dont they? Dad (8:37:50 PM): not at all Bradford86 (8:37:53 PM): your perspective is very interesting. Bradford86 (8:38:07 PM): what if i told you that my friends are getting job offers around 130K? Dad (8:38:33 PM): what if i told you that i haven't seen an offer for you yet? Bradford86 (8:38:37 PM): i'd rather not work for exxon Dad (8:38:48 PM): its ok Dad (8:38:54 PM): im just concerned Bradford86 (8:38:58 PM): you should be Bradford86 (8:39:01 PM): parents dont like risk Dad (8:39:03 PM): me and debt never got along Bradford86 (8:39:12 PM): parents want me to get a secure safe job Dad (8:40:06 PM): ok Dad (8:40:33 PM): well when it becomes your money Dad (8:40:51 PM): which it will in 18 months Bradford86 (8:40:59 PM): i want student loans Bradford86 (8:41:04 PM): unfortunately --- i cant get them. Dad (8:41:12 PM): getting through the 18 months, until you get a real job offer, will be tough Dad (8:41:23 PM): because of the fafsa? Bradford86 (8:41:46 PM): i've honestly messed around with the fafsa for about 20 cumulative hours now Bradford86 (8:41:50 PM): trying to get it to work. Dad (8:41:51 PM): cant you claim you are solely responsible for your own education as an MBA? Bradford86 (8:41:57 PM): i can do whatever i want Bradford86 (8:42:02 PM): whether they listen or not.. Dad (8:42:12 PM): well can you restart from zero on the fafsa Bradford86 (8:42:22 PM): that's what i'm going to try and do in 2 months Bradford86 (8:42:35 PM): until then, i'm stuck Dad (8:43:50 PM): ok well my point is you made a mistake in cash managament by gambling money you absolutely needed do you agree? Bradford86 (8:44:39 PM): i knew this situation was possible Dad (8:44:47 PM): i agree with your strategy right now Dad (8:45:06 PM): borrowing versus reselling is the best strategy Bradford86 (8:45:09 PM): i knew this situation was possible, i knew what i was getting into Bradford86 (8:45:15 PM): for better or worse, i was going to do it Bradford86 (8:45:23 PM): the market was down Dad (8:45:24 PM): if you were running a business, the banker would shut you down Bradford86 (8:45:35 PM): at this point... i dont think so. Dad (8:45:38 PM): that is my point Bradford86 (8:45:49 PM): the potential is still 1.5 years away Dad (8:45:54 PM): as soon as you walked in for a loan, they would Bradford86 (8:45:57 PM): and we're talking 50,000 minimum Dad (8:46:08 PM): they would tell you to liquidate your stocks to make the payments Dad (8:46:19 PM): bankers dont think like that Dad (8:46:31 PM): that is all i am trying to teach you here Bradford86 (8:46:33 PM): i'm glad i dont have to do that. Dad (8:46:49 PM): you knew the plan Bradford86 (8:47:04 PM): i revised the plan about 4 times Dad (8:47:05 PM): you had a banker (me) backing that plan) Dad (8:47:10 PM): i know Bradford86 (8:47:15 PM): 1st time co-op Bradford86 (8:47:22 PM): 2nd time graduate 3.5 Bradford86 (8:47:27 PM): 3rd time MBA Bradford86 (8:47:37 PM): 4th time invest all tuition Bradford86 (8:47:45 PM): first 2 had me coming out positive Bradford86 (8:47:51 PM): 3rd increased my potential Bradford86 (8:48:02 PM): 4th cost me about $20,000 so far Bradford86 (8:48:24 PM): if i had time to get a job on the side, i would Dad (8:48:43 PM): will there be time inn the spring semester? Bradford86 (8:48:55 PM): who knows --- mom told me to graduate Dad (8:49:11 PM): well walking around money is important Bradford86 (8:49:17 PM): i'll rob mazen Dad (8:50:08 PM): ok enough of this Dad (8:50:17 PM): learn as you go Dad (8:50:30 PM): i hope you rub my face in this in a year Bradford86 (8:50:44 PM): i wont Dad (8:50:46 PM): it makes everything easier Dad (8:50:59 PM): its jsut that you ran througha lot of stop signs Dad (8:51:31 PM): you will make it. Dad (8:51:40 PM): have some fun tonight Bradford86 (8:51:58 PM): i'm tired of partying Bradford86 (8:52:12 PM): the 25 CR have taken that away from me. Bradford86 (8:52:28 PM): as kim puts it Bradford86 (8:52:39 PM): "you grew up fast, didnt you?" Bradford86 (8:55:58 PM): anyway Bradford86 (8:56:11 PM): i am selling cbi and buying bucy Dad signed off at 9:00:50 PM. -------------------------------The following happened on January 20th Bradford86 (9:36:00 PM): hey. Dad (9:36:07 PM): hey Bradford86 (9:36:27 PM): 2 things, one of which doesnt relate to stocks or girls Dad (9:36:35 PM): ok Bradford86 (9:36:38 PM): 1, mazen got a great idea Bradford86 (9:36:43 PM): we are juicing our own orange juice Dad (9:36:52 PM): that is a great idea Bradford86 (9:36:52 PM): so, every day fresh squeezed Bradford86 (9:37:12 PM): 2, i'm running some numbers on aob. Dad (9:37:15 PM): best stuff as long as you ahve time for it has pulp tho Bradford86 (9:37:23 PM): yep. Bradford86 (9:37:27 PM): that's the best part. Dad (9:37:43 PM): thought you hated pulp Bradford86 (9:37:45 PM): but, i'm learning significantly more about the market as time goes on. Bradford86 (9:37:50 PM): nah, pulp is fine Bradford86 (9:37:54 PM): that was a kid thing Dad (9:38:01 PM): ok Dad (9:38:58 PM): so what about aob? Bradford86 (9:39:13 PM): i'm running numbers. Dad (9:39:23 PM): ok Bradford86 (9:39:24 PM): but, i'm trying to be a lot lot more picky about my stocks Bradford86 (9:39:30 PM): but, it's way oversold in the past 3 days it looks like Dad (9:39:47 PM): meaning it is way down? Bradford86 (9:39:53 PM): from like 7.4 to 4.7 Dad (9:40:09 PM): do you own a bunch of it? Bradford86 (9:41:03 PM): i own 2010 and 2011 calls Dad (9:41:32 PM): at what price? Bradford86 (9:43:13 PM): 7.5 and 10 Dad (9:43:31 PM): ok Dad (9:43:44 PM): so why has aob fallen? Bradford86 (9:44:04 PM): there's a few issues that i need to look into closely, one of which is at 7.5 they have 12.5MM shares exercisable Bradford86 (9:44:19 PM): i need to look into organic growth rates Dad (9:44:29 PM): whatever that means Bradford86 (9:46:24 PM): well Bradford86 (9:46:37 PM): it means that is it growing only through acquisitions Bradford86 (9:46:43 PM): or is it growing on its own as well? Dad (9:46:50 PM): call em up Bradford86 (9:47:08 PM): i can just read their company quarterlies Dad (9:49:47 PM): ok Dad (9:49:52 PM): any good classes? Bradford86 (9:51:44 PM): uh. Bradford86 (9:52:13 PM): yeah, i suppose Bradford86 (9:52:20 PM): hard to say. Bradford86 (9:52:34 PM): it's all just re-learning Dad (9:52:42 PM): oh well at least you have fresh squeezed orange juice Bradford86 (9:52:43 PM): and continuous improvement. Dad (9:53:30 PM): yep Dad signed off at 10:35:59 PM. Dad (11:07:59 PM): hey Dad (11:08:06 PM): i made a big mistake again Bradford86 (11:08:10 PM): what? Dad (11:08:18 PM): should have sold at 9,000 Bradford86 (11:08:19 PM): apple? Bradford86 (11:08:20 PM): haha Dad (11:08:25 PM): now im stuck in free fall Dad (11:08:29 PM): apple has 5 years Bradford86 (11:08:33 PM): i'm trying to figure this out Dad (11:08:40 PM): it is actually a good buy this time Bradford86 (11:08:45 PM): yes. it is Bradford86 (11:08:57 PM): i'm also really bullish on cedc Bradford86 (11:09:07 PM): i was looking at it wrong Dad (11:09:18 PM): i see you bought some Bradford86 (11:09:21 PM): yep. Dad (11:09:28 PM): well we need a market rally Bradford86 (11:09:35 PM): i'm trying to sell my stocks that are rallying Dad (11:09:36 PM): no questions asked Bradford86 (11:09:39 PM): and buy oversold ones Bradford86 (11:09:46 PM): i'm using technical analysis to do it. Dad (11:09:49 PM): are you sellg positive ones? Bradford86 (11:09:59 PM): so today, KCI and VSEC were coming down from being overbought Dad (11:10:00 PM): i ahvent looked at my portfolio for a while Bradford86 (11:10:02 PM): so i dumped them Bradford86 (11:10:07 PM): and i bought AOB Bradford86 (11:10:14 PM): which is way oversold Bradford86 (11:10:18 PM): and i bought CEDC Dad (11:10:19 PM): how is the chinese building one doing? Bradford86 (11:10:22 PM): xin? Bradford86 (11:10:24 PM): or ghii? Dad (11:10:26 PM): yes Bradford86 (11:10:35 PM): ghii isn't going to move with the market Bradford86 (11:10:53 PM): i'm selling when the stocks are overbought Bradford86 (11:10:55 PM): that's the game. Bradford86 (11:11:03 PM): and i'm only buying oversold ones Bradford86 (11:11:13 PM): new rules i'm obiding by. Dad (11:11:34 PM): apple would be a good buy early tomorrow Bradford86 (11:11:37 PM): i agree. Bradford86 (11:11:43 PM): have mom buy CEDC and apple Dad (11:11:49 PM): jobs isnt the only creative one Bradford86 (11:11:52 PM): have her drop $5000 on each. Bradford86 (11:11:58 PM): and have her do her shifty price thing Bradford86 (11:12:06 PM): have her throw in her $0.50 cent discount thing she does Dad (11:12:10 PM): did she ever buy the dow? Bradford86 (11:12:21 PM): i dunno, she'll get it tomorrow if her orders open Dad (11:12:25 PM): you tell her tomorrow Bradford86 (11:12:25 PM): hang seng is falling like a rock Dad (11:12:32 PM): i see that Dad (11:12:39 PM): for no good reason Bradford86 (11:12:44 PM): well.. Bradford86 (11:12:50 PM): the reason is we fell Bradford86 (11:12:53 PM): so they falll Dad (11:12:53 PM): we may see it shoot past 8000 tomorrow Bradford86 (11:13:00 PM): i think we probably will. Dad (11:13:16 PM): if it blasts past itm th next support is 7500 (my guess) Bradford86 (11:13:25 PM): well. Dad (11:13:31 PM): so why not wait until noon and see what bargains pop up? Bradford86 (11:13:57 PM): i agree. Dad (11:14:23 PM): ill look at the pre market and see but apple has dropped off the table because of jobs Dad (11:14:28 PM): and it isnt warranted Dad (11:14:56 PM): i cant beleive the retail figures impacted this dramatically....everyone knew they would suck Dad (11:15:04 PM): 8000 is the key Bradford86 (11:16:40 PM): i noticed the apple thing Dad (11:17:00 PM): well it made headlines Bradford86 (11:17:19 PM): as big companies always do when their CEO goes through menopause and is a man Dad (11:17:33 PM): yep Dad (11:17:39 PM): so it is a good buy Dad (11:17:44 PM): 7600 buys 100 shares Dad signed off at 11:18:31 PM. Dad is offline and will receive your IMs when signing back in. Bradford86 (5:26:13 PM): hey. Dad (5:26:20 PM): hey Bradford86 (5:26:24 PM): do you know if the markets are open monday? Dad (5:26:40 PM): i dont know google it Bradford86 (5:26:56 PM): anyway, found another company Dad (5:27:19 PM): is this one in antartica? Bradford86 (5:27:24 PM): yes Bradford86 (5:27:31 PM): it manufactures ice blocks Dad (5:27:37 PM): sounds possible Bradford86 (5:27:40 PM): and sells them to africans Bradford86 (5:27:56 PM): actually, it's a noodle company in china Bradford86 (5:28:01 PM): if i bought the company. Bradford86 (5:28:08 PM): used the cash to pay the liabilities Bradford86 (5:28:11 PM): i'd make money Bradford86 (5:28:18 PM): not to mention liquidating the assets Dad (5:28:28 PM): well im dealing with julie now Bradford86 (5:28:39 PM): managment 200? Dad (5:28:46 PM): email the link to the company Dad (5:28:48 PM): yep Bradford86 (5:29:10 PM): nwd Bradford86 (5:29:35 PM): their website went down january 12th Bradford86 (5:35:22 PM): but Bradford86 (5:35:32 PM): i have developed new criteria to buy a stock Bradford86 (5:35:47 PM): in order to minimize losses Bradford86 (5:36:09 PM): this one meets them all but one Dad (5:38:16 PM): ok Dad (5:38:27 PM): let me help julie Dad signed off at 6:17:37 PM. Dad is offline and will receive your IMs when signing back in. Dad signed on at 7:02:30 PM. Bradford86 (3:10:04 PM): sounds like you successfully helped julie Dad (3:10:10 PM): yep Dad (3:10:33 PM): so what is the name of the stock? Bradford86 (3:10:37 PM): ticker is nwd Bradford86 (3:10:55 PM): i plan on buying some in your account tuesday. Bradford86 (3:11:21 PM): i'm not publishing my article on this one till i personally own it. Dad (3:11:33 PM): a penny stock ouch Bradford86 (3:11:46 PM): i just sent you the link Bradford86 (3:11:48 PM): i mean Bradford86 (3:11:54 PM): what i'm submitting. Bradford86 (3:12:29 PM): or my "justification" Bradford86 (3:12:30 PM): if you will Dad (3:13:17 PM): so why is it headed down? Bradford86 (3:13:33 PM): well. Bradford86 (3:13:42 PM): what are people afraid of. Bradford86 (3:13:44 PM): 1. china Bradford86 (3:13:48 PM): 2. penny stocks Bradford86 (3:13:50 PM): this one is both Dad (3:14:19 PM): yep Dad (3:14:29 PM): but it has fallen 90 percent in less than a year Bradford86 (3:14:58 PM): it's fallen more than that Bradford86 (3:15:08 PM): 95% probably Bradford86 (3:15:29 PM): well, i guess your right Bradford86 (3:15:54 PM): it's selling at less than 50% of liquidation value Dad signed off at 3:16:10 PM. Dad is offline and will receive your IMs when signing back in. Dad signed on at 3:16:26 PM. Bradford86 (3:16:37 PM): their margins Bradford86 (3:16:39 PM): over the past year Bradford86 (3:16:47 PM): have been decreasing Bradford86 (3:17:06 PM): mostly because of the whole commodities bubble Dad (3:17:24 PM): ok Bradford86 (3:17:36 PM): but. Bradford86 (3:17:38 PM): in the past week Bradford86 (3:17:48 PM): this thing's gotten technically oversold all over it Dad (3:18:08 PM): this is another little league stock Bradford86 (3:18:10 PM): yep. Bradford86 (3:18:14 PM): i'm a little league player Dad (3:18:33 PM): i would at least investigate if something bad has ahppened to management Bradford86 (3:18:45 PM): their management has been buying since $0.50 Bradford86 (3:18:58 PM): they're a lot like ghii Bradford86 (3:19:01 PM): just really small Bradford86 (3:19:13 PM): but they're the 4th largest noodle manufacturer in china Dad (3:19:31 PM): so? Bradford86 (3:19:43 PM): just a fact. Dad (3:19:45 PM): all you can hope for is they get bought out? Bradford86 (3:19:50 PM): no. Bradford86 (3:20:02 PM): the stock price is unjustifyably low Bradford86 (3:20:08 PM): it's way too much pessimism Dad (3:20:37 PM): well you are getting a lesson in penny stocks Bradford86 (3:20:53 PM): they have no long term debt. Dad (3:20:59 PM): im thinking of tossing in another 1500 and buying more DOW or GE Bradford86 (3:21:06 PM): hmm. Bradford86 (3:21:42 PM): ge is starting to look reasonable to me. Dad (3:22:06 PM): didvidends are suddenly more attractive Bradford86 (3:22:12 PM): i still like dow. it's got an 11% Dad (3:22:48 PM): i know Bradford86 (3:22:58 PM): and it's got the same commodities thing going for it. Bradford86 (3:23:05 PM): higher gross margins are on the way Dad (3:23:06 PM): we are trying to toss in money while the getting is good Bradford86 (3:23:20 PM): mom has about 30K on the sidelines Dad (3:23:37 PM): that is her money Bradford86 (3:23:42 PM): indeed. Dad (3:23:53 PM): you told her to buy cde or something right? Bradford86 (3:23:57 PM): cedc, yes Dad (3:24:13 PM): and hwat did that stock do last week? Bradford86 (3:24:19 PM): should have gone down Bradford86 (3:24:28 PM): what i'm doing for her Bradford86 (3:24:42 PM): is trying to get her to have 3-5 open orders that are about $5000 a piece Bradford86 (3:24:50 PM): of buying 10% below current price Dad (3:24:56 PM): ok Bradford86 (3:25:00 PM): she picked up dow, that was good Bradford86 (3:25:01 PM): haha Bradford86 (3:25:56 PM): whatever you do, selling cedc is not smart. Dad (3:25:57 PM): im thinking the market will bounce between 8000-9000 over the next 3 months Bradford86 (3:26:02 PM): i agree. Bradford86 (3:26:18 PM): we are seeing stabilization Dad (3:26:23 PM): then when it cant get any worse, things will bounc ewup Bradford86 (3:26:35 PM): if you look at the chart from a technical chart perspective.. here. Dad (3:26:44 PM): i think the gov emphasis on buildint upgrades is a great idea Dad (3:27:45 PM): and energy Bradford86 (3:27:59 PM): i just sent you a chart of the dow with 2 trendlines Bradford86 (3:28:04 PM): technical people love trendlines Dad (3:28:07 PM): that is stimulation and infrastructure improvement at the same time Dad (3:28:16 PM): i know Bradford86 (3:28:28 PM): but, the higher bottoming we saw this last week. Bradford86 (3:28:40 PM): that's what caught my eye. Dad (3:28:48 PM): which means? Bradford86 (3:28:57 PM): well Bradford86 (3:29:05 PM): based on the two indicators i watch Bradford86 (3:29:13 PM): we went above 20% off the low Bradford86 (3:29:22 PM): and we just saw a higher bottom Dad (3:29:33 PM): yes Dad (3:29:43 PM): those are long trends Bradford86 (3:29:48 PM): and the emerging markets were priced reasonably like a depression scenerio at bottom Dad (3:30:16 PM): so ou agree that 8000 was bottom barring something horrific? Bradford86 (3:30:31 PM): i think 2 bad things could happen Bradford86 (3:30:34 PM): obama could get assassinated Bradford86 (3:30:50 PM): world war 3 could break out Dad (3:31:01 PM): the upcoming consumer credit bubble i think is factored in Bradford86 (3:31:14 PM): the emerging market consumer is not factored in. Dad (3:31:14 PM): right now, companies have to go under Bradford86 (3:31:17 PM): yes. Bradford86 (3:31:37 PM): i just see a lot of pretty crazy deals out there. Bradford86 (3:31:44 PM): some arnt Bradford86 (3:31:48 PM): some still are overpriced Dad (3:31:51 PM): all in the little elagues Bradford86 (3:31:57 PM): like, education is overpriced Bradford86 (3:32:07 PM): and so are some obama stocks Dad (3:32:11 PM): ok Bradford86 (3:32:33 PM): i'm just getting pretty optimistic because factory inventories are starting to get really low Dad (3:32:41 PM): ok Bradford86 (3:32:52 PM): and, eventually, they are going to need to start that up again Dad (3:33:07 PM): you have 7 more weeks til things get a lot easier? Bradford86 (3:33:16 PM): school's always pretty easy Dad (3:33:19 PM): i agree with your reasoning Dad (3:38:40 PM): your article reads well Bradford86 (3:38:47 PM): well Bradford86 (3:39:06 PM): i use the act of writing an article to drive the research Bradford86 (3:39:41 PM): i thought it was interesting that back in 2002, their was a similar price shock in wheat Bradford86 (3:39:57 PM): and the company's margin ate dirt for 3 quarters Bradford86 (3:40:09 PM): but since then it looks like they've been doing a pretty good job with derivatives Dad (3:41:30 PM): ok Bradford86 (3:42:08 PM): tom thinks corn prices and soybean prices are going up from here Bradford86 (3:42:19 PM): that's fairly consistent with what's expected Dad (3:42:30 PM): ok Dad (3:42:55 PM): oh well we are going to the clint eastwood movie Bradford86 (3:43:00 PM): sounds like fun Bradford86 (3:43:16 PM): i'm trying to go workout. Dad (3:43:35 PM): ok Dad (3:43:39 PM): i already did Dad signed off at 3:44:31 PM. Dad is offline and will receive your IMs when signing back in. Dad signed on at 7:21:23 PM. Bradford86 (7:45:46 PM): was it worth $40? Dad (8:21:34 PM): the movie? Bradford86 (8:21:39 PM): yep Dad (8:21:39 PM): no popcorn Dad (8:21:44 PM): no drink Dad (8:21:57 PM): it was a movie for old people Bradford86 (8:22:17 PM): so? was it worth it? Dad (8:22:52 PM): it wasnt stupid Dad (8:23:07 PM): old guy kicks young hoodsbutts Bradford86 (8:25:06 PM): indeed Dad (8:25:18 PM): then they kill him Dad (8:25:23 PM): plot ends Dad (8:25:36 PM): off to the shower Bradford86 (9:15:37 PM): hey Bradford86 (9:15:40 PM): ever heard of markstrat? Bradford86 (1:18:13 PM): maddie's swimming again today? Bradford86 (1:27:47 PM): haha Dad (2:02:32 PM): thre and back already Bradford86 (2:02:38 PM): sweet Bradford86 (2:02:50 PM): so, i uncovered another tidbit of info on my penny stock Dad (2:02:57 PM): i just worked out Dad (2:02:59 PM): ok Dad (2:03:03 PM): good or bad? Bradford86 (2:03:05 PM): the CEO makes $20K a year Dad (2:03:17 PM): is their annual report typewritten? Bradford86 (2:03:42 PM): and the CFO has been loading up on stock options expiring in 2011 and 2014 that strike around $1.60 Dad (2:03:43 PM): does he take stock for the rest of his compensation? Dad (2:03:55 PM): ok Bradford86 (2:03:55 PM): the CEO owns a lot of stock. Bradford86 (2:04:08 PM): the cfo makes $108K Bradford86 (2:04:16 PM): i think that the CEO just doesnt care about the money. Dad (2:04:17 PM): well......then buy some shares and hold on Dad (2:04:24 PM): one of these will hit Bradford86 (2:04:40 PM): my personal goal is to find 2 more in the next 6 months Bradford86 (2:05:03 PM): it's just something fun to do. Dad (2:05:08 PM): how much cash is in my account? Bradford86 (2:05:13 PM): $0 Dad (2:05:25 PM): so w hat are you selling? Bradford86 (2:05:30 PM): ktii i believe Dad (2:05:40 PM): the big loser? Bradford86 (2:05:47 PM): ktii is selling above book value Bradford86 (2:06:01 PM): and it has a high p/e and it's not technically oversold Bradford86 (2:06:14 PM): this is all relative of course Dad (2:06:29 PM): yep Bradford86 (2:06:30 PM): but, ktii is still a great company that's significantly undervalued Bradford86 (2:06:36 PM): just not as much as NWD Dad (2:06:57 PM): ok Bradford86 (2:08:10 PM): also, i've got a new programming setup so that.. Bradford86 (2:08:17 PM): when my companies are technically overbought Bradford86 (2:08:22 PM): i know. Dad (2:08:30 PM): ok Bradford86 (2:08:30 PM): and i plan to sell them Dad (2:08:43 PM): that's what all this is for i guess Bradford86 (2:08:47 PM): it should help me lock in profits. Bradford86 (2:08:57 PM): and then i'm only buying technically oversold stocks Bradford86 (2:09:42 PM): i have to watch myself though and make sure that i like them fundamentally before i buy them Bradford86 (2:09:54 PM): i caught myself thinking a technically oversold stock was a good buy Dad (2:10:22 PM): again learning process Bradford86 (2:10:29 PM): kaizen Bradford86 (2:10:38 PM): i did. Dad (2:10:45 PM): ok Bradford86 (2:12:58 PM): one thing is definately for sure Dad (2:13:12 PM): and that is? Bradford86 (2:13:17 PM): i really like looking for bargain bin companies Bradford86 (2:13:37 PM): makes me understand why jewish women love coupons Bradford86 (2:13:46 PM): but.. they do it on a $0.25/minute scale Dad (2:14:03 PM): yep Dad (2:14:12 PM): long run they make lots of money Bradford86 (2:14:19 PM): save lots of money Bradford86 (2:14:28 PM): you cant make when you're net is spending Dad (2:15:02 PM): yep Bradford86 (3:19:46 PM): julie turned down a job offer Bradford86 (3:19:46 PM): ha Dad (3:20:48 PM): what kind? Bradford86 (3:21:02 PM): door to door sales Bradford86 (3:21:02 PM): ha Dad (3:23:14 PM): good idea Bradford86 (6:40:17 PM): any insight or good ideas? Dad (6:40:22 PM): nope Bradford86 (6:41:37 PM): well, i appreciate the support. Dad (6:41:56 PM): you are doing fine change makes me nervous Bradford86 (6:48:31 PM): the gym was crowded today. Dad (6:48:59 PM): mine wasnt Dad (6:50:58 PM): well ummm ok Dad signed off at 6:52:24 PM. Dad is offline and will receive your IMs when signing back in. Bradford86 (2:01:50 PM): so.. Bradford86 (2:01:54 PM): i got lucky Dad (2:01:59 PM): how? Bradford86 (2:02:03 PM): dodged a bullet Bradford86 (2:02:06 PM): vsec Dad (2:02:14 PM): sold it? Bradford86 (2:02:20 PM): i sold it cause it was overbought Bradford86 (2:02:24 PM): i might have to buy back in though Bradford86 (2:02:28 PM): i'll look at it later today Dad (2:02:36 PM): how much did it fall? Bradford86 (2:02:40 PM): half Dad (2:02:48 PM): well done Bradford86 (2:02:53 PM): nah, just luck Bradford86 (2:02:58 PM): the military denied their proposal Dad (2:03:08 PM): ok Dad (2:04:07 PM): did you sell this morning? Bradford86 (2:04:13 PM): vsec? no Bradford86 (2:04:16 PM): got out last week Dad (2:04:21 PM): ok Bradford86 (2:04:23 PM): at $41 Dad (2:04:28 PM): are you reinvested then? Bradford86 (2:04:33 PM): in vsec? no Bradford86 (2:04:42 PM): there's still more selling going to happen to this. Bradford86 (2:04:54 PM): with news like that, and downward like this.. Dad (2:05:00 PM): well your new stock went up then dropped Bradford86 (2:05:03 PM): nwd? Dad (2:05:16 PM): yep Bradford86 (2:05:23 PM): yeah, i'm prolly gonna average 0.21 Dad (2:07:15 PM): was it all my money? Bradford86 (2:07:21 PM): no Bradford86 (2:07:48 PM): you have 7000 shares Dad (2:08:15 PM): $140? Bradford86 (2:08:32 PM): 1400 Dad (2:08:39 PM): ouch Bradford86 (2:08:54 PM): what? Dad (2:10:19 PM): thats a lot of cash Dad (2:10:34 PM): it coul drop to 0 the lawyers take all the $$ Dad (2:10:42 PM): it is a huge gamble Bradford86 (2:10:56 PM): huh? Bradford86 (2:10:59 PM): lawyers? Dad (2:11:26 PM): when a company goes bankrupt, the shareholders get basically 0 Bradford86 (2:11:34 PM): how does a company go bankrupt? Dad (2:11:44 PM): 1st the owners strip it, then the attorneys, then the governement Bradford86 (2:11:56 PM): i thought that... to go bankrupt you have to owe people money? Dad (2:12:00 PM): then the secured bondholders then the unsecured Dad (2:12:17 PM): then the stockholders are last Dad (2:12:48 PM): in the current economic climate in a foreign more lawless business climate, anything can happen Dad (2:13:15 PM): just me worrying about my money Dad (2:13:55 PM): that same 1400 could have bought dow Dad (2:14:39 PM): with a "guaranteeed 11 percetn return Bradford86 (2:15:07 PM): it could be 12 by now Bradford86 (2:15:22 PM): it's pretty close Bradford86 (2:15:24 PM): 11.99 Dad (2:16:26 PM): so explain why you prefer to play wild buffalo bill versus taking a strong company that will help lead the market back Bradford86 (2:16:50 PM): well Bradford86 (2:17:13 PM): i think nwd is less risky. Bradford86 (2:17:46 PM): they make a product that has a relatively constant demand Bradford86 (2:17:52 PM): are good at making this product Dad (2:18:10 PM): 4th in the nation means they are dr pepper Bradford86 (2:18:14 PM): and are really cheap. Dad (2:18:32 PM): not the market leader Bradford86 (2:18:40 PM): yep. Dad (2:18:49 PM): the most likely outcome is they will get bought out Dad (2:19:01 PM): but that is beside the point Dad (2:19:23 PM): if you are trying to make good solid decisions, you need to question your choice this time Bradford86 (2:19:26 PM): the dividend is comforting. Dad (2:19:56 PM): 12 percent annual return is doubling your money every 6 years plus the stock going up Bradford86 (2:20:20 PM): i dont think 12% return is enough to be satisfied right now. Bradford86 (2:20:40 PM): i'm looking to do better Bradford86 (2:21:14 PM): i am only running with $50K Bradford86 (2:21:19 PM): if i was running with $500B Bradford86 (2:21:25 PM): then 12% would be superb. Dad (2:23:06 PM): well right now i figure you have at least 8,000 of my 16,000 in high risk securities Dad (2:23:17 PM): when do you say "enough" Bradford86 (2:23:20 PM): risk is not knowing what you're doing Bradford86 (2:23:28 PM): do i know what i'm doing? maybe Dad (2:23:51 PM): risk is knowing the market doesnt care about you and would just as soon take all your cash Bradford86 (2:23:58 PM): that's true as well. Dad (2:24:36 PM): playing in the wading pool, as you are, is different that playing in the big pool Dad (2:25:18 PM): but if you get some experience in penny stocks, and if you get lucky and one actually performs, then maybe you can get out of it unscathed Bradford86 (2:25:56 PM): well Bradford86 (2:26:03 PM): a lot of the reason i'm justifying penny stocks right now Bradford86 (2:26:10 PM): is because the market is down 50% Bradford86 (2:26:15 PM): penny stocks are down 95% Dad (2:26:19 PM): ok Bradford86 (2:26:23 PM): if i think the market has bottomed Bradford86 (2:26:29 PM): and if i think that china is bottomed Bradford86 (2:26:38 PM): and china is going to lead this next year Dad (2:26:44 PM): 8034 Bradford86 (2:27:21 PM): then if i can find chinese penny stocks that are undervalued, i should buy Bradford86 (2:27:49 PM): remember, buy on the gossip, sell on the fact Bradford86 (2:27:54 PM): that's the obama rally. Bradford86 (2:27:59 PM): people are selling the fact Dad (2:29:58 PM): obama was a fact in november Bradford86 (2:30:23 PM): they sold then too Bradford86 (2:30:30 PM): remember? Dad (2:30:31 PM): yep Bradford86 (2:31:37 PM): i would think penny stocks have less market correlation than normal stocks right? Bradford86 (2:32:01 PM): so, thinking that way, you'd be making your portfolio less risky by owning penny stocks Dad (2:32:02 PM): most likely but they have been spiralling down too Bradford86 (2:32:08 PM): yep. Dad (2:32:17 PM): here is the point... Bradford86 (2:32:24 PM): i could lose Dad (2:32:26 PM): some risk is good Dad (2:34:19 PM): and most rich guys will say that you are doing the right thing Dad (2:34:23 PM): so we are seeing Dad (2:35:39 PM): classes going ok? Bradford86 (2:35:45 PM): blah, prolly Dad (2:35:52 PM): ok Bradford86 (2:36:15 PM): classes are an excuse to leave the house Bradford86 (2:37:26 PM): one thing is for sure Bradford86 (2:37:32 PM): someone is dumping nwd Dad (2:37:59 PM): is it still dropping? Bradford86 (2:38:05 PM): they have dumped about 2M shares in the last 2 days so far Bradford86 (2:38:12 PM): usually the trading volume is 200K Dad (2:38:53 PM): wow Bradford86 (2:38:58 PM): hopefully we can get another person to panic sell ghii today too. Bradford86 (2:39:08 PM): saves me $9.99 Dad (2:40:25 PM): why do you want that? Bradford86 (2:40:57 PM): well the way orders are filled Bradford86 (2:41:12 PM): if you put in a limit order to buy 15000 shares at 0.076 Bradford86 (2:41:22 PM): and it fills that order over several days Bradford86 (2:41:33 PM): each day it fills it charges a commission Dad (2:41:50 PM): ok Bradford86 (2:43:25 PM): wow, ameritrade is sucking at filling this order Bradford86 (2:43:41 PM): oh well. hopefully it goes Dad (2:44:19 PM): ok Dad (2:45:23 PM): bouncing above 8000 again Bradford86 (3:12:46 PM): woohoo glad to be below 8000 Dad (3:13:04 PM): im not Dad signed off at 3:37:03 PM. Dad signed on at 10:44:59 PM. Bradford86 (11:34:37 PM): do you know anything about oil? Bradford86 (11:34:48 PM): me either. Bradford86 (11:34:54 PM): except it goes in the car Dad (11:35:08 PM): cant help you much on oil Bradford86 (11:35:52 PM): weird, china is down again. Dad (11:36:25 PM): sucks Dad signed off at 11:36:31 PM. Dad is offline and will receive your IMs when signing back in. Dad (8:03:55 PM): 8000 it is Bradford86 (8:30:16 PM): hey Dad signed off at 9:08:17 PM. Dad is offline and will receive your IMs when signing back in. Dad signed on at 9:31:44 PM. Dad (9:33:06 PM): what? Dad (10:06:21 PM): honestly you are acting more than a little crazy right now Bradford86 (10:06:59 PM): you're prolly right. Dad (10:07:13 PM): when you land your 100,000 per year job and you can toss away 1000 of your own money its ok Dad (10:07:31 PM): but you are tossing around money that is supposed to go for college Dad (10:07:46 PM): and in 8 months you are going to be begging for 16,000 Bradford86 (10:07:54 PM): yep. Bradford86 (10:08:00 PM): sad isnt it. Dad (10:08:07 PM): it is worrisome Dad (10:08:18 PM): cause it isnt your money Dad (10:08:29 PM): and as usual we will come and bail you out Bradford86 (10:09:07 PM): i have an idea. Dad (10:09:21 PM): the issue is, we dont have the 16000 just laying around anymore Bradford86 (10:09:23 PM): the fafsa solves your problems. Dad (10:09:49 PM): it is still loaned money Dad (10:09:58 PM): you have a negative net worth Dad (10:10:04 PM): dramatic negative Dad (10:10:15 PM): yet you are addicted to trading stocks Dad (10:10:32 PM): with no summer job Dad (10:10:43 PM): and no full time job waiting Dad (10:11:04 PM): in an economy where smarter guys with more experience will be after the same job you are Bradford86 (10:11:21 PM): you're exactly correct, from a safety perspective. i'm jobless, in debt, and in a bad economy Dad (10:11:41 PM): so who is at risk? Bradford86 (10:11:56 PM): define risk? Dad (10:12:07 PM): whose money is it? Dad (10:12:20 PM): who is going to have to ante up Julie's summer payment? Dad (10:12:27 PM): cause you cant make it Bradford86 (10:12:31 PM): is julie dooing summer school? Dad (10:12:42 PM): i have no idea Dad (10:13:01 PM): i mean you signed an agrement to pay her back 6600 in july 2009 Dad (10:13:09 PM): who is going to pay that? Bradford86 (10:13:33 PM): well, looks like i have to pay her back then Dad (10:14:08 PM): dont you feel the responsibility to do that? Bradford86 (10:15:28 PM): by july? Bradford86 (10:15:34 PM): i should be able to do that. Dad (10:15:42 PM): how? Dad (10:15:49 PM): all your bets are going down Bradford86 (10:16:00 PM): you're exactly right. Bradford86 (10:16:23 PM): it'd almost be profitable to be against myself Dad (10:16:32 PM): all im saying is, these "deals" will still be here in 2 years Bradford86 (10:16:40 PM): i dont think so. Bradford86 (10:16:42 PM): not like this. Bradford86 (10:16:47 PM): this is a once in a life time opportunity Bradford86 (10:16:54 PM): look through the past 100 years Bradford86 (10:16:59 PM): never have interest rates been this low Bradford86 (10:17:03 PM): and p/e ratios been this low Dad (10:17:04 PM): that is an addict's statement Bradford86 (10:17:30 PM): what it is, is a statement of the current economic climate Bradford86 (10:17:43 PM): you can get a 30 year fixed home loan at 3.5% with 20% down payment Bradford86 (10:18:09 PM): refinance rates are through the roof Bradford86 (10:18:35 PM): all i'm saying is the world could come to an end Dad (10:19:02 PM): it wont Dad (10:19:09 PM): you need to get a job tho Bradford86 (10:19:11 PM): but, i'm trying to buy stocks the way buffett and hall would. Dad (10:19:15 PM): then blow your own money Dad (10:26:03 PM): dont you feel frantic? Bradford86 (10:26:14 PM): not really. Bradford86 (10:26:32 PM): i feel like if i'm able to find companies that are way underpriced Dad (10:26:32 PM): well from this angle you are acting it Bradford86 (10:26:43 PM): then, i should pick them up Dad (10:26:53 PM): in 3 years yes Dad (10:27:11 PM): right now you ahve an obligation to get thru college Dad (10:27:18 PM): then pay off your debt ------------------------- The following happened on January 25th Bradford86 (2:23:33 PM): hey Finance Girl (2:23:43 PM): ay bay bay Finance Girl (2:23:45 PM): how you been? Bradford86 (2:23:51 PM): well Bradford86 (2:23:52 PM): good Bradford86 (2:23:57 PM): i'm going balls deep tomorrow Bradford86 (2:24:15 PM): i'm going to try and talk to warren Bradford86 (2:24:28 PM): and offer to work for him for free Finance Girl (2:24:28 PM): seriously? why? Bradford86 (2:24:39 PM): effective immediately Finance Girl (2:25:12 PM): why Bradford86 (2:25:17 PM): because i want to do it. Bradford86 (2:25:38 PM): i've got a good shot. Bradford86 (2:26:03 PM): my strategy is 2 parts Finance Girl (2:26:03 PM): you do Finance Girl (2:26:05 PM): ? Bradford86 (2:26:06 PM): to call and get him on the line Bradford86 (2:26:19 PM): and tell him 10 seconds about my name and university Bradford86 (2:26:33 PM): and 10 seconds about wanting to work for him for free, whenever he wants me to Bradford86 (2:26:47 PM): and 10 seconds giving him a stock pick that he should look at to consider my credibility Bradford86 (2:27:07 PM): and then tell him thanks for his time Bradford86 (2:27:17 PM): and that i'll call back tuesday to see what he thinks Finance Girl (2:28:15 PM): and how do you expect to get him on the line to begin with? Bradford86 (2:28:21 PM): call him Bradford86 (2:28:27 PM): he answers his own phone Finance Girl (2:28:40 PM): because he'd want to talk to some kid from Purdue Finance Girl (2:28:49 PM): I say no chance Bradford86 (2:28:50 PM): he would if i could get him to look at the company Finance Girl (2:28:56 PM): and what company? Bradford86 (2:29:10 PM): ghii Bradford86 (2:29:47 PM): but, we'll see. Bradford86 (2:30:33 PM): if i'm lucky i might be able to get him to loan me $100M Finance Girl (2:30:37 PM): golh horse? Bradford86 (2:30:42 PM): yep. Finance Girl (2:30:49 PM): *gold Bradford86 (2:30:53 PM): stupid right? Finance Girl (2:30:56 PM): yes Finance Girl (2:31:09 PM): i think your entire plan is unattainable Bradford86 (2:31:17 PM): haha, thanks. Finance Girl (2:31:32 PM): you're welcom --------------------------------------The following happpened on February 19th [15:25] Dad: so here is what you do [15:25] Dad: you work [15:25] Dad: you make real money [15:25] Dad: you save [15:25] Bradford86: you lose if that is what you do. [15:25] Dad: and when the market turns [15:25] Dad: you invest [15:25] Bradford86: that way of thinking is not what makes it in todays society [15:25] Bradford86: that used to cut it. [15:26] Bradford86: working 9-5 isnt what cuts it. [15:26] Dad: that is so wrong [15:26] Bradford86: that's last century [15:26] Bradford86: working hard is hardly working [15:26] Bradford86: you have to work smart [15:26] Bradford86: add value to society, you have to actually do something. [15:26] Dad: my guess is we will be bailing you out of financial ruin at least once ----------------------------------- The following happened on APRIL 7, 2009 Bradford86 (4:04:55 PM): begs the question Dad (4:05:00 PM): ok? Bradford86 (4:05:06 PM): is shit hitting the fan? Bradford86 (4:05:21 PM): i talked to *insert isurance agency here* today Dad (4:05:23 PM): no jsut a day correction Bradford86 (4:05:26 PM): $100/week + commissions. Dad (4:05:27 PM): ok Dad (4:05:33 PM): for what? Bradford86 (4:05:35 PM): and i'd be selling life insurance Bradford86 (4:05:42 PM): aka, hustling my friends and family Dad (4:05:43 PM): where? Bradford86 (4:06:00 PM): probably indianapolis Dad (4:06:03 PM): well we don't beleive in life insurance Bradford86 (4:06:10 PM): good. Bradford86 (4:06:17 PM): i dont like that job. Dad (4:06:17 PM): we have minimal Dad (4:06:31 PM): did the eye thing fall thru? Bradford86 (4:07:40 PM): no Dad (4:08:17 PM): ok Dad (4:08:50 PM): that is more down your alley selling insurnace is what marketing people do Dad (4:09:10 PM): it would be a decent "experience" Bradford86 (4:09:20 PM): sure. Dad (4:09:22 PM): but on a resume would look stupid Dad (4:11:17 PM): for an engineer/mba Bradford86 (4:12:12 PM): i dont want to do it. Dad (4:12:39 PM): did you ever get a figure from tavel? Bradford86 (4:14:04 PM): no Bradford86 (4:14:13 PM): i haven't got nothing from nobody Dad (4:14:25 PM): did you ask for the hourly rate? Bradford86 (4:14:34 PM): that's not what i want Bradford86 (4:15:34 PM): i want simply to be taken seriously Dad (4:15:50 PM): so do i Dad (4:15:54 PM): good luck Dad (4:16:31 PM): you blew off the professional opportunity to be taken seriously in December Dad (4:16:42 PM): now you are swimming with geese Dad (4:18:09 PM): i did the same thing....i blew off a great professional opportunity at two places and swam with geese for the rest of my life Dad (4:18:50 PM): farm bureau insurance wanted me to become an auditor and ayr-way had me in their management training program Dad (4:19:08 PM): instead i decided small business was the way to go and i was wrong Dad (4:19:24 PM): i thought i knew everything Dad (4:19:29 PM): no one cared Dad (4:19:45 PM): you have the advantage of a technical degree in engineering Dad (4:20:08 PM): instead you are choosing to swim with the geese in finance... Dad (4:20:42 PM): rather than being One of 1,000, you are going to be treated as just another one of the 1000;s Dad (4:21:27 PM): still you ahve the MBA thing Dad (4:21:33 PM): and Purdue Dad (4:21:50 PM): and next year at this time, hopefully a great job offer Dad signed off at 8:27:06 PM. --------------------------The following happened on March 28th Bradford86 (8:19:40 PM): basically. Bradford86 (8:19:48 PM): hmm, thinks Finance Girl (8:20:04 PM): start from the bottom and work up Bradford86 (8:20:12 PM): failed corporate finance Finance Girl (8:20:14 PM): because I feel like stocks might be an in depth conversation Finance Girl (8:20:19 PM): Oh no, I'm sorry Finance Girl (8:20:23 PM): Are you going to have to retake it? Bradford86 (8:20:28 PM): ha, no Finance Girl (8:21:05 PM): so what's going to happen? Bradford86 (8:21:07 PM): http://web.ics.purdue.edu/~gbradfor/glen/files/glen/FailPredict.jpg Bradford86 (8:21:52 PM): well, if you can pass school getting 2 standard deviations below the mean Bradford86 (8:22:02 PM): i dont have much reason to try. Finance Girl (8:23:10 PM): So you still passed? Bradford86 (8:23:58 PM): the class, yes Bradford86 (8:24:01 PM): kind of. Finance Girl (8:24:02 PM): Heyyy you got a C Finance Girl (8:24:23 PM): AND you didn't get the lowest grade on the test Finance Girl (8:25:41 PM): and for the record: what does MBA school teach you to be impossible that you could solve using simple principles? Bradford86 (8:25:58 PM): beating the mean Finance Girl (8:26:15 PM): what do you mean beating the mean Bradford86 (8:26:31 PM): beating the average Finance Girl (8:26:47 PM): and then said you could never achieve a return higher than the average? Bradford86 (8:27:11 PM): i am going to beat the average Finance Girl (8:27:24 PM): Okay just a pointer or two: Finance Girl (8:27:43 PM): If you ever want to make it in any sort of finance career, never make anything like what you just sent me public Bradford86 (8:27:53 PM): i am going to beat the s&p500 Bradford86 (8:27:57 PM): or whatever index you want to watch Finance Girl (8:28:08 PM): It is possible to be the S&P 500, but you can't do it on a continual basis Finance Girl (8:28:23 PM): But don't make anything like that public or else you have no chance at getting anywhere Finance Girl (8:28:40 PM): 1) Don't say you're going to be a millionaire in 10 years Finance Girl (8:28:46 PM): because it shows you're monetarily focused Finance Girl (8:28:48 PM): greedy Bradford86 (8:29:00 PM): it's just a fact. Bradford86 (8:29:11 PM): youre the first person to see that picture Finance Girl (8:29:15 PM): 2) Everyone interviewing you or judging you isn't going to like that you don't take MBA finance seriously Finance Girl (8:29:30 PM): It doesn't refllect well Finance Girl (8:29:47 PM): 3) You can't apply simple principles to make the impossible possible Finance Girl (8:29:58 PM): or else the quants running the world right now would have figured it out ages ago Finance Girl (8:30:49 PM): And corporations DO rationalize buying back more stock as their stock price goes up because they're targeting their leverage ratio Bradford86 (8:31:00 PM): yes, they are stupid. Finance Girl (8:31:09 PM): How so? Bradford86 (8:31:22 PM): they should buy it back when it's low Finance Girl (8:31:49 PM): 1) Usually corporations don't buy back stock just because it's low Finance Girl (8:31:55 PM): they need incentive to buy it back Finance Girl (8:31:56 PM): it's not like bonds Bradford86 (8:32:19 PM): yep. you are right Bradford86 (8:32:36 PM): i still say it's stupid. Finance Girl (8:32:40 PM): Coporations buy stock back when they want to look good or improve something Finance Girl (8:33:00 PM): they inject stock into the market when they want to deflate current stock value, or increase their own holding of shares Finance Girl (8:33:09 PM): they buy it back when they want to improve how they look Finance Girl (8:33:14 PM): including leverage ratios Bradford86 (8:33:33 PM): any idea what you want to do when you graduate? Finance Girl (8:33:53 PM): Risk management Finance Girl (8:34:53 PM): And the whole market efficiency theory: Not everyone believes it and you're not the first one to speak out against it Finance Girl (8:35:02 PM): There are even different levels of market efficiency Finance Girl (8:35:09 PM): Your opinion is your opinion Finance Girl (8:35:16 PM): a lof ot people believe otherwise Finance Girl (8:35:30 PM): so if you want to speak out against it, you really have to form your opinions in a strong manner Bradford86 (8:35:48 PM): i'll stick to.. it's a hypothesis that i proved wrong. Finance Girl (8:36:12 PM): How much research have you really done into market efficiency? Finance Girl (8:36:30 PM): Because I do believe the market (under market efficiency) has the ability to drastically correct itself if something goes wrong Bradford86 (8:37:02 PM): probably. Finance Girl (8:37:17 PM): No, it does Finance Girl (8:37:39 PM): You really have to understand everything before you make the statement that you "prove it was wrong" Finance Girl (8:37:45 PM): proof is a VERY strong concept Finance Girl (8:37:59 PM): and finding one exception to the rule (or even five) isn't good enough Bradford86 (8:38:08 PM): well. a hypothesis is proved wrong when you find 1 counterexample Finance Girl (8:38:08 PM): Its the efficient market HYPOTHESIS Finance Girl (8:38:17 PM): not the efficient market FACT Finance Girl (8:38:30 PM): Its a general way to explain general market behaviour Finance Girl (8:38:36 PM): and it most times, it does hold very well Finance Girl (8:39:28 PM): But if you're using your logic with 1 counterexample Finance Girl (8:39:36 PM): then you can disprove EVERYTHING Finance Girl (8:40:06 PM): There is NO way humanly possible (or even technologically possible) to explain the markets to a T Bradford86 (8:40:24 PM): what about the theory of relativity? Finance Girl (8:40:25 PM): And if there was, someone would have figured it out by now Bradford86 (8:40:30 PM): i can't prove that wrong Finance Girl (8:40:46 PM): Oh good lord don't start with me on silly shit like that Finance Girl (8:40:54 PM): Everything in finance for the most part Bradford86 (8:41:05 PM): we dont agree on finance. Bradford86 (8:41:08 PM): this is why i failed Finance Girl (8:41:16 PM): You and the rest of the world don't agree on finance Bradford86 (8:41:44 PM): i only hope that when i'm beating the market year after year... Bradford86 (8:41:54 PM): you see light in my arguments Finance Girl (8:42:01 PM): What were your returns over the past year? Bradford86 (8:42:08 PM): -75% Finance Girl (8:42:22 PM): Then you have absolutly NO place to talk until you start beating the market Finance Girl (8:42:37 PM): You more than DOUBLED the losses incurred by the S&P 500 Finance Girl (8:42:51 PM): which obviously means you're not heading in the right direction Finance Girl (8:43:10 PM): What they teach you in your MBA program is generally how the markets do operate Finance Girl (8:43:23 PM): and if you can't understand that and agree with it, then there's no way you could beat the markets Bradford86 (8:44:20 PM): i disagree. Bradford86 (8:44:32 PM): my mentor annualized 25% up till this crash Finance Girl (8:44:34 PM): Really, so what are you doing differently? Bradford86 (8:44:36 PM): now he's annualizing 15% Bradford86 (8:44:44 PM): my grand father annualized 20% for 25 years Bradford86 (8:45:06 PM): i dont care about what math proves Bradford86 (8:45:09 PM): i care about what works Bradford86 (8:45:16 PM): and math is wrong if you give it the wrong assumptions Finance Girl (8:45:25 PM): unless I see statements telling me that both did in fact BEAT the market every single year Finance Girl (8:45:29 PM): then that's hobwash Finance Girl (8:46:29 PM): See, but you really aren't doing anything that works right now Bradford86 (8:46:37 PM): that's not true. Finance Girl (8:46:38 PM): don't use options pricing models unless you know how to correctly use them Bradford86 (8:46:48 PM): that's also not true. Bradford86 (8:47:01 PM): options are just a play on stock prices Bradford86 (8:47:12 PM): they are a catalyst or insurance Finance Girl (8:47:19 PM): Last time I talked to you you were randomly assessing the risk metric Finance Girl (8:47:39 PM): You have no place to lecture me about any sort of derivative, so don't start Finance Girl (8:47:46 PM): my education is based around derivatives pricing Bradford86 (8:47:55 PM): risk randomly assigned by market cap and distance from where you live is better than risk assigned by covariance Finance Girl (8:48:07 PM): mmmmm Finance Girl (8:48:24 PM): but you have to remember you're not the one who is determining the risk levels or the prices of the actual derivatives Finance Girl (8:48:32 PM): so if you ever plan on making a profit from price changes Bradford86 (8:48:32 PM): there is a market maker Bradford86 (8:48:36 PM): sitting in the CBOE doing it Bradford86 (8:48:48 PM): pricing out 8000 derivatives at a time Finance Girl (8:48:53 PM): you need to understand how THEY got the prices in the first place Bradford86 (8:49:11 PM): it's a function of expected future volatility, random walk, and time Finance Girl (8:49:22 PM): yes, a stochastic process I know Bradford86 (8:49:47 PM): and then there's the whole horse betting simulation where the house always wins Bradford86 (8:50:04 PM): where the buyers and sellers are the ones actually pricing the options Finance Girl (8:50:20 PM): You know what, I'm not going to argue with you on this at all Finance Girl (8:50:39 PM): Because until you come back to me and say that you've beat the market continuously year over year Finance Girl (8:50:53 PM): then your rationale means nothing Finance Girl (8:51:57 PM): And if you continue to talk to the way you do over the internet, and produce -75% returns Finance Girl (8:52:01 PM): then you end up looking like a complete fool Finance Girl (8:53:22 PM): And how are you going to find people to invest Finance Girl (8:53:27 PM): with a track record like that