Glen Doth Know

Blog Moved

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 20:03:00 +0000

This Blog has moved to www.GlobalSpeculation.com

Screw it!

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 19:35:00 +0000

Yeah, I was actually strategizing if I was going to blog about my findings anymore since I'm running a hedge fund. bottom line, it's something I like to do... and I also like to write for thestreet and seekingalpha and run around on ihub.

so, i'm going to keep doing what I like to do.

apwr- yuck
holi- yuck
cpst - yuck
ceua - 30% growth rate, p/e of 9, 2x book value
llfh - 25% growth rate, p/e of 8, 2.5x book value
anrgf - no clue
sutr - 30% growth clouded by recession, P/E of 5
wemu - 100% growth this year, 30% into the future prolly, P/E of 9
aemd - icky
ceua - p/e of 9, microcap for a couple years yet.
niv - growth of 20%, P/E of 10
bhrt - icky
qgp - yoink, yuck
blsw - icky
xsnx - nope
lege - nope
etak - nope
rxii - nope
npws - hype + potential? i don't care... waiting on this one.
gsi - looking into this one
csgh news
cphi news
yhgg - big potential pinkie, better than SIAF in my opinion
ciwt - expensive for my taste
chio - expensive for my taste
sutr - dip in fundies and already on the nasdaq
ors - still a/r hurting
caei - lots of upside, but still not cheap
mbrx - not profitable
cheh - not a stock
cga - expensive
cdii - expensive
ceua - expensive
rino - will likely outperform the market and probably pull 200% in the next 2 years, not enough for me seeing other opportunities
jngw - hurting, check Q2 earnings
chbo - no revenues, i just threw up in my mouth
ddr- payed out preferred dividend
inmd - too expensive for this type of investing climate
UNG – not interested
SD – not interested
HGT – looks interesting, prolly an 8% yielder. Upside is $25, not enough for me
NGLPF - dont like it
CPTC - dont like it
domr - no track record
vlov - no volume, but looks to have a p/e of around 5
pmi - and risk-o was his name-o
spng - appears to be a $100M company, price says that too, and lots of potential growth. not cheap enough right now
octi - no revenues
cagc - not cheap enough, but growth of 33% NEG CASH FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES
jngw - revisit in Q2
zolt - too expensive
zagg - wayyyy expensive

pulled the following from some crazy analytical guy that sells ideas that will in my opinion beat the market, but who cares about marginally beating the market? I don't. Not now, not when I can make 200% in 4 months.
* Kirby Corporation (KEX): Strong Interest (93%), Peter Lynch-based model
* Diana Shipping (DSX): Strong Interest (93%), Peter Lynch-based model
* Overseas Shipping (OSG): Strong Interest (93%), Peter Lynch-based model; Some Interest (90%), Joseph Piotroski-based model
* TBS International (TBSI): Strong Interest (93%), Peter Lynch-based model
* International Shipholding (ISH): Strong Interest (93%), Peter Lynch-based model; Some Interest (83%), Motley Fool-based model
* SEACOR Holdings (CKH): Some Interest (86%), Benjamin Graham-based model; Some Interest (74%), Peter Lynch-based model

kex - not interested --- too expensive + turnaround
dsx - dry bulk - interesting, but i think china is bidding these up in the short term and so i like FREE, SBLK, DAC more
osg - looks appealingly cheap with high growth, will look deeper
tbsi - not profitable last quarter, so more risky, but i picked outperform in CAPS (not real money)
ish - volatile stock price, buy below 18 and sell above 22 seems like a good gig ... i might be doing it - did it with CAEI for a couple "20% in 3 day" pops
ckh - price looks a lot like the baltic drybulk index. too expensive. no way.

my thoughts on the following list, i'm only going to cover ones i havent covered.
ABAT, AKRK, BKYI, CAEI, CCTR, CHFI, CHGY, CNOA, CSGH, CYXN, ETFC, GHII, LTHU, LTUS, NWD, ORS, XING

abat - too expensive
byki - too expensive
cctr - well... scam, or deal of a life time? referenced nmkt too. looks interesting, see below
cctr - revisited immediately - 110,944,194 shares outstanding, P/E > 50. not a growth story, not interested
lthu - haha NO WAY
NMKT - revisited again, pink sheets, and they've got videos from this really clean cut guy in a suit with what he thinks are good mba presentation skills. i hate these people. empty suits, but maybe i'm wrong here, bottom line is i am risk averse., their lead people make $200,000+, and share dilution is out the butt, screw them
siaf - still a pink sheet, seeks quotation on the OTCBB. cool. but looks like 52M shares outstanding yields a market cap of 37M, which upts the p/E higher than 5 and P/S > 2. i'm not interested
mtxx - down huge, for a reason. not interested.. icky -- but if you wanna dig deeper, let me know. prolly will go up above $5.70

aib - whoah nilly. why haven't i looked into this sooner.
ire - whoah nilly. why haven't i looked into this sooner.
txic - looks like a forward looking p/e of 3.58
hwd - wow - the motley fool keeps sucking less in their newsletter picks. but hell, they are getting better. this one will outperform and be a multi-bagger.

ACAS - If American Capital survives, let’s see here. They are paying out stock as a dividend. Looks like a $200M dividend ballpark. Just assume that none of this dividend is cash. So now they throw out another 50M shares. If they do this 3 times, that’s 350M shares outstanding and a current market cap of 1.361B
Still cheap in my book, but I’d take the price back in 2006 and say $35 is your high point, so with 50% dilution, $17.50 is your new high point. So, I’m saying banks are fairly valued down 50% from where they were, so I’d be out at $9 unless the market turns up big and they aren’t diluting.
Lazy analysis is better than anything an analyst can do for you.

chgi - Yeah it’s a pretty compelling story as they already have money making lines…and given the fact they’re the only company in China with the ability to produce “nuclear graphite”. The gov’t in China is currently building 40 nuclear reactors at 12 facilities throughout China by 2015. CHGI is the only publicly traded Chinese company with the technology to produce this type of graphite.
cpe
- looks cheap, but i can't figure out

China Real Estate Opportunities SA
(Public, LON:CREO)

chump of the day
http://finance.yahoo.com/special-edition/active-investor/options-beyond-fear

philip guziec
http://www.moneyshow.com/directory/speaker.asp?speakerid=5E54BF2B5F7547959B039BA50831C736

Being the CFO for OPAI
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=208628&t=01000000000214846910

I’m stuck in E*trade Land

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 19:34:00 +0000

The purpose of this article is to outline my quest for the cheapest broker that lets me “do what I want” with the least amount of hassle and how the real hassle is always behind the scenes. I’ll also outline the public companies from the perspective as an investor.

I currently can trade with Firsttrade, Schwab (SCHW), Ameritrade (AMTD), E*Trade (ETFC), Merrill Lynch (BAC), and I have checking accounts with Fifth Third (FITB), and a savings account at Bank of America (BAC). So, what’s the scoop and why am I writing this article? I’ve been setting up a new E*Trade account for the past month and my patience is wearing thin. Why did I choose to open another account with E*Trade?

Merrill Lynch (BAC) won’t let me buy stocks less than $1. This is to protect me from myself, I suppose. But what happens when a company that you value over $10 goes below $1? Odds are you’d like to buy more and now your left buying it at a higher price of at least $1, whenever it surfaces back above that waterline. All for $29.95 a trade. What a great deal! Not.

Ameritrade (AMTD) has the best interface and is honestly in my opinion the best, except for that it won’t let me buy certain penny stocks because it doesn’t like the transfer agent. I fought Ameritrade on this a little bit, because if they would simply let me buy the companies that I want to buy, I’d push all my accounts to them.
Schwab lets me buy pretty much anything I want, but Schwab has proven to be a little more hands on than what I’d like them to be. I got a margin call on a $30,000 account that was over half marginable securities and we were sitting on about $1,000 of margin. That’s pretty ridiculous. Also, Schwab is more expensive than E*Trade.

So, here I am, setting up another account with E*Trade (ETFC) because I know it will be the most flexible once I get it going. I’ve been trying to set up this account for over a month now and have made a frustration timeline that you can see below. I’m still in limbo and haven’t received a phone call from E*Trade. I’ve had to take the initiative to call them up and follow up as to where exactly the money I sent them is. They still aren’t sure, so there is roughly $115,000.00 floating out there in E*Trade land.

Alright, how do these companies stack up as far as investments go? I would say that Schwab (SCHW) and Ameritrade (AMTD) are reasonably priced. Bank of America and Merrill (BAC) still appear to have over 100% upside potential within the next year and so does Fifth Third (FITB).
Lastly, I’ll note that I’ve been asked by a couple Fifth Third employees what I would consider investing in. I asked them if they had ever considered buying Fifth Third (FITB).

Disclosure: Glen and his investors own FITB and BAC.

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 23:24:00 +0000

My thoughts:
We need a bottom in the housing market, and in order to get one, US interest rates must remain low until inflation and foreign investment put a bottom into this market. Inflation will scare away foreign investors, but will help US home owners. Loans being restructured at lower interest rates will help too --- but idiots will restructure with variable interest rates and get squeezed out later down the road or possibly walk if their home is worth less than their mortgage (underwater). This will potentially dry up market liquidity and hurt banks and insurers and all that jazz as well as kill global GDP in the short term. Now that that's how I feel, let's see how the market reacts and react accordingly. China is still the best bet. Commodities already reflect these inflationary tendencies.

“‘Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted.’” - Albert Einstein

I wrote all of this the weekend of Sunday, June 7, 2009. I am not publishing it that weekend, but instead possibly mid-week or even later depending on how long it takes me to buy positions in some of the companies below. If you are reading this, it is public. Good luck.

llfh - my current lowball target is 71% price appreciation (and my estimates have a unreasonably strong tendancy to be conservative)
slm - will likely outperform the S&P500 by 100% over the next 12 months (if that's what you're interested in... i'm not, but I still may buy some)
canl - pricey but going to the nasdaq and selling around book value "A conversion to a Nasdaq listing can be completed as early as this summer," Guo said. "We will issue $70 million worth of new shares at that time." - i'm not interested in being diluted. that's like 50% dilution.
ccgy - opportunity knocks only for those who listen. buying opportunity of a lifetime? hint hint, nudge, nudge. I am buying.
wemu - It could triple. They say they have a lot in the pipeline. They say they are moving into the USA and PRC markets. They say they have a monster backlog.Although this would be operating on "he said, she said, the company said" --- the growth they are talking about is over 100%. This company isn't selling less than book value or significantly off its 52-week high. It isn't "cheap" to me. But, I feel that it is cheap to most.In the land of investing, it doesn't matter what the company is actually worth. What matters is how much people are willing to pay for it. Solar right now is hot, and this company is getting listed.They are profitable and have an optimistic outlook. I plan on picking some up casually, but nothing extravagant.
yuii - you will likely make money and beat the market, but i'm not excited about this one
chcg - like it, and this will go up and outperform the market. +300% in the next 3 years is 90% probable
abwtq - abh - haha.. no way
jgbo - an easy double before it gets listed
myst - weak cash flows and i can get better p/s ratios elsewhere. i don't think this is large enough to uplist. but it's definately worth more. cloud computing is an extreme thing. not mediocristian.
siaf - don't mess with pinks
feed - i'd rate around market perform, but it will likely beat the market.
ntes - too expensive, go with sohu instead
hrbn - probable valuation: $18.60
sina - worth more, but too expensive. Sell around a P/E of 40, or around $50 in the next 6 months if it gets there
ltus - love it.
cbak - not interested
cphi - i support this one. lots of upside
txic - looks very interesting, p/E around 4, so upside of around 200% fairly easily. the asian car market is very strong right now
acas - one of my turnaround plays
gls - this is the best airline stock i've found. profitable, i like this one. strong dividend, could shoot 200%.
gnk - my P/E = 4.6, at book value, should be an easy double
cno - like this one a lot.

--------------Note from a fellow Blogger
You should really read some of the articles on www.blogtoamillion.com about CNO.
I have followed your picks a lot, and this stock is one of my favorites - among
ACAS, GLS, and GNK. With 13 cents of Q1 earnings x 4 = 52 cents, or a PE ratio of 5.
..not sure about their insurance reserves (mortgage backed securities, treasuries,
corporate bonds), but they did have writedowns to protect themselves. The upside
here is $10-$15/shr, IMO, but just some disclosure: I am long CNO...
---------------------End Note

Earn a living or earn a fortune. I want to be rich. How do I plan on doing it?
Definitions:
OPM - Other People's Money
OPT - Other People's Time
IQ - My intelligence

I intend to promote my IQ to control OPM to own OPT.

Since I'm lazy, I would rather not reinvent the wheel here. In fact, I don't really want to manage other people or tell them what to do. I'll just stick to evaluating the performance of other people who like to work hard and buy stakes in their hard work when the stakes are cheaper than they should be and capture the value over time.

Now, I'm not claiming to have the best ability to value every company in the world. But, I figure if I focus on not owning anything that seems risky and only recommend the best deals I can find --- that puts me ahead of Wall Street.

A couple more ideas

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 18:09:00 +0000

jade - tried to write an article about it, but although i believe this thing is more likely to go up than it is to go down --- i'm very uncertain and uneasy making that call, good news is that i don't have to.
cgdi - i'm going to sit out on this one - shareholders equity has other people involved and not poriftable last quarter.
Ccgy - I would weed it out right now because it wasn’t profitable last quarter.
sblk vs dac vs free

--------------------------
jade - i did write an article and included it. just not as a top pick

chln - too expensive for me to want to own right now
cgyv - rumor has it cheap because a hedge fund dumped it. this isn't cheap enough for me. this last quarter sucked, but will be made up for in the next quarter.
chfr - P/S > 1. not cheap enough, this is a very small company based on first glance, could grow fast and stock could go with it. but it feels like a gamble, cash position low
glcc - scammy, and on top of that it's a pink sheet, no way.
gspg - maybe a good idea, but it looks too risky for me.
llfh - not cheap, not expensive, getting listed. will go up, compare to chgy and pudc.

Coal and Oil

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 03:32:00 +0000

Tommy,

Glad someone looks through my notes. I just added this to my to-do list --- which is currently 7 companies long.

My dad ran a business called ARM Computing for 15 years. I am just carrying on the legacy.

A couple things:

1. Your notes reflect that you dig deep enough and that you have a sense of what you are looking for. That's a plus.
2. If I had any advice, or a cautionary statement --- make sure you never get caught up in 1 company and try to continue to prove that it is a good value. Always be nimble and always be comparing that which you are invested in to that which you could be invested in. If you like another opportunity better. Switch.

A couple similar companies off the top of my head that you might be interested in/familiar with

oil
Cneh, lpih, I think snen too. (snen is not a buy for me, but it's interesting)

Coal:

Sclx, chgy, pudc

Anyway, I'm sure there are more. The bottom line: Find the best way to allocate your money so that you are the most confident that you will not lose. I can't emphasize that enough. By doing that, with that mindset, you should do fine. The trick is figuring out what not to own instead of wasting lots of time evaluating 1 single potential opportunity. I call this relative valuation.

Maybe I have no idea what I'm talking about, but empirical evidence suggests otherwise,

Glen

-----Original Message-----
From: Tommy Gallagher [mailto:thomasmgal
Sent: Monday, June 01, 2009 9:51 PM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: Re: CCGY

Hey Glen - congrats on getting the hedge fund started up. I wish you
luck. Does the ARM name have any significance? How'd you come up with
it?

A stock I came across tonight is CCGY - China Clean energy. Looks
like it may have bottomed in early March at .10 cents. With the
increase in diesel margins today of 8% and their new facility coming
online in September - this may be decent bargain. Their earnings
weren't impressive for last year or the first quarter. I didn't see
this in any of your round robins and was wondering if you've looked
into this stock at all. At 20 cents its pretty inviting. they were
initially on the docket to present at the china rising conference, but
they didn't. I'm not sure why Glass half empty - i should stay away,
there is a bad reason why they didn't present, couldnt get their act
together, were disinvited etc...glass half full - too much going on
with the economy, not enough time, another, some other benign reason
and now not everybody knows about this stock yet since it didn't
present and its an opportunity.

looks like it is getting some notice with 175k volume today.

Below is the link to the china conference website showing they were
originally scheduled to present and a piece of their quarter
filing...let me know what you think.

Thanks,

Tommy

http://www.chinarisingconference.com/news/news20090416.html

weekend recap

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 04:09:00 +0000

A market beating friend on REITs:
Of the REITs, I like Winthrop (FUR), Brandywine (BDN), and Lexington (LXP) the most. There are others that I haven't researched as thoroughly that still look fairly attractive, as well. HRPT Properties Trust (HRP), BioMed Realty (BMR) top that list.

There have been a few that I have recommended that have skyrocketed over the past few months to... Read More the point that I need to re-evaluate them. Those include Colonial Properties (CLP) and CapitalSource (CSE). For that matter, BioMed has spiked considerably.
-----------------------------------
problems in china microcaps http://www.chinafirstcapital.com/blog/?p=552
---------------------------
his reccos: fur, bdn, lxp, hrp, bmr, clp, cse ---- i like CSE the most based on charts only and i looked at it before. will look at it deeper (again)
abc - not cheap enough
atai - potentially worth looking into, explosive growth. wow, really expensive. nevermind
stv - too expensive, but you'll probably make money. i have companies that make mroe money than this trading on the otcbb. retarded!
cner - appears too expensive, selling more than book value anyway
gfre - worth looking at again
pudc - i've established i like pudc.
simo - says they made money and decreased shareholders equity in 2007 to 2008? what gives? it's cheap. worth a second glance
apwr - too expensive
agm - too shaky, has been in the past and i just don't know
sclx http://crystalequityresearch.blogspot.com/2009/04/coal-fired-dragons.html
mic - too shaky, but looks cheap. too bad i'm not in the risk business, this is where most people would justify buying it because there is upside and say that the risk is justifyable. i don't like risk
prsc - too expe
gbe - too risky
tiv - not profitable
cxpo - still like it.
smrt - profitable, solid quarter, not interested.
lei - oil and gas company not profitable in 2008? not interested.
nni - not interested
zbb - too expensive
cnoa - like this one. woohoo
utvl? i like this one. new ticker since it's getting uplisted, UTA
expe - not cheap enough, but it makes you like UTA/UTVL --- above. lol
pcln - not cheap enough, but it makes you like UTA/UTVL --- above. lol
oww - not profitable. no wonder they gave me such a deal on spring break 2007.
ctrp - not cheap enough, but it makes you like UTA/UTVL --- above. lol
cpst not profitable. not interested! http://www.distributedenergy.com/march-april-2008/microturbine-market-growing-1.aspx
sblk - looks very interesting, comparable to my idea FREE, looking at again
dac - contracted through Q2 2010, but their last statement screams risk
sacq - 17% dividend in the works paid in a couple days? HELP?! SOMEBODY, TAKE MY MONEY!
mxc - too expensive
mwhgf - pink sheets not interested
mwh:ln - too risky
snen - still watching, not buying
seb - too expensive
cmfo - still a winner in my book
atk - not profitable
ttm - too expensive
uoy - not interested, buy lpih or cneh, or cxpo instead
jada - well, last time it was too expensive at $2. Now it is 1/10th that cost at $0.19
mhh - not cheap enough

looking at deeper:
cse - like it, but i haven't looked deep.
gfre - looks good, boo yah.
simo - turn around - not interested
sacq - $1 dividend? i don't care, not playing this game
jada - looks like a chicken dinner winner, buy-time

sblk vs free vs dac

no need to look at because i like them:
cnoa
cxpo
utvl/uta

One last piece of wisdom-----

You don’t need an umbrella if:

1.You don’t mind getting wet.
2.You don’t go outside when it rains.

I would meet constraint 1 as far as rain goes and constraint 2 as far as money goes.

Glen

Eating Risk for Breakfast

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 04:08:00 +0000

If you are looking at the US markets, you may believe that since early march investors are waking up and pouring themselves bowls of Risk Crispies for breakfast --- if only Kellogg’s (K) made these too. The stocks that have been rallying the hardest are the ones that have been sold down sometimes more than 90% in the past 2 years. Now, do note that I’m not here to recommend what I consider to be highly speculative plays, like *snap* General Motors (GM) *crackle* or Ambac Financial (ABK) *pop*. Actually, I wrote this before I knew GM was becoming Government Motors. I have been thinking of GM as the Titanic. Nobody wanted it to sink, but they structured the ship with too much optimism and it looks to be taking all the shareholders down to Davy Jones Locker.

What I will say is that I believe that the more you pay for the stake in a business, the less likely it becomes that you will be able to sell it to someone else at a higher price. In the land of investing, risk comes from overpaying --- the winner’s curse. I would say that it is certainly less risky to pay less for something if your objective is to make money by selling it off at a later date.

The way I see it, there are two kinds of risk in the stock market. There is good risk and bad risk. More emphasis should be placed on the bad kind of risk because by being able to avoid it, investors can outperform the market in the long run --- which is what most of us are interested in. Most bad risks come from people that don’t understand what they are doing.

A few examples of bad (dumb) risk would be: picking up pennies in front of a steam roller, riding your bicycle down the Autobahn, lying under oath, drinking and driving, or deciding to fight the guy at the bar that looked at you funny. The outcome is unknown, but you are likely to not be excited about it. The examples here are the stocks listed above. Battleship sunk!

A couple commonly believed good (intelligent) risks: studying for an exam that you want to pass, going to work if you want to keep your job, or exercising and eating a healthy diet to feel good. The outcome here serves more as a confirmation bias that makes these risks sound self-evident, but they aren’t that obvious to everyone. I try to keep 100% of my portfolio in this category. A couple new ideas that I haven’t talked about yet are Patriot Capital Funding (PCAP) and MCG Capital Corporation (MCGC). That said, you might want to consider the rising tide in Bulk Shipping with Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK), FreeSeas (FREE), and Danaos (DAC).

There are only a few examples of definable risk: rolling a dice, most games in a casino, and flipping a coin. The outcome can be precisely calculated. There is nothing in investing that I would say has a definable future real net present value. There is so much fluctuation between stock prices, currency prices, inflation, treasury yields, and expectations that I don’t feel confident predicting anything with 100% accuracy.

Believe it or not, there are examples of no risk: jumping out of a plane with no parachute, driving your car at 100 mph into a brick wall, traveling into outer space without a space suit. The outcome is in my opinion well-known. Unfortunately, there is no such thing as a sure thing in the stock market. Deals can always change --- even after they are announced.

Some investors justify making risky decisions based on their likelihood of achieving higher returns. In times of crisis, the price of the stock market goes down. Some perfectly good stocks go down more than 90%. Wouldn’t it be nice to be able to find these and pick them up for pennies on the dollar? That’s what I try to do. The trick is not stepping into the “fear breeds fear” market and wait for the lower valuations to begin to appreciate across the markets and signs of early strength. Then, hop aboard the rising tide on the companies marked down 90% in price that are fundamentally set to appreciate more than anything else you can find.

Some investors pay people to actively diversify their money across companies at mediocre prices. The investment vehicles here tend to be ETFs and Mutual Funds. That said --- this is a generalization. I know of several mutual fund companies and managers that I really like and I would even go as far as to recommend them to people who don’t know how to invest themselves.

In the investment world, there are 2 questions. Where do you put your money? When do you do it? It’s just that simple. You could put your money into high flying stocks at market bottoms, or you could put your money into undervalued companies at market peaks. Either way, you are fighting the wrong battle. At the market bottoms, you don’t want to be fighting off Winner’s curse. At the market peaks, you’re missing the perspective of how a negative trend bludgeons most investors’ risk appetites to death. Even though I’m making money since June 2008, I’ve been fighting the wrong battle for the majority of my tenure. I was simply trying to outperform the market. That’s what I used to be interested in. Now I’ve refocused on not losing money and I’m doing a lot better.

Discloser: Glen and his investors own PCAP, MCGC, DAC, SBLK, FREE.

Lux Would Love These Stocks

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Tue, 26 May 2009 03:46:00 +0000

on the hunt through my old favorites to find a few that aren't hurting except in their stock price. looking for something not china in this case, also not in the financial markets. lets work down a list that i screened out in order of stock price appreciation potential according to ben graham's formula P/E = 8 + 2G

NOV - cyclical downturn mildly "entertaining" this company. worth a lot more and my feeling is that you wont lose money on NOV, trading at book value, trading above backlog
BUCY - as red hot as coal, selling for cheaper than its backlog, also hurting a bit with the recession
dxpe - damn, hurting a bit, but still cheap. more easy money for those rich folk out there that read my blog and can't buy my pennies
aob - another great play, not hurting, everyone hates aob cause it is in china, not going to cut it in this search
psys - lowered guidance, still a growth machine as far as i can tell - i'd be cautious and wait and see on this one, not as confident as i am with those listed above. still deserves a P/E of 17.
azz - cut estimates for 2010 (in actuality, 2009, but that's cause their fiscal ends in february). i think they'll clear this hurdle.
sohu - chinese internet, better than bidu, struggling last 2 quarters, next!
ebix - WOW, KICKING BUTT AND TAKING NAMES! LETS GO EBIX! CHEER!
air - good for the long haul, but this looks good to me. this last quarter underperformed from a seasonal analysis/historical perspective. just fyi
sigm - really sucked lately, not a surprise. but, there's something to be said ... just not sure. this thing is sitting on potential, but too risky for my money right now --- anyone know anything about IPTV?
ctsh - expensive, but lots of opportunity on this growth stock.
---- running out of time tonight
lxu - underperformed last quarter, sitting tight
midd - looks like a bread winner for the mid caps. go MIDD!
oii - hurt this last quarter
cmtl - cautious guidance "we're not magicians" --- gotta love that :-)
joyg - double bottom, things looking up from here, kind of a turn around play.
pets - volatile trading, might want to swing trade this one for giggles. undervalued though, just not enough in the charts for my interest
zumz - another good one, another bottom of the cycle play. just not my thing though
kci, ande, beav --- scored below AT&T on a brief screen. not going to even look at. but kci could be good. constant currency basis turn around! called it

EZPW --- ARE YOU FREAKING KIDDING ME THIS IS SO CHEAP??!?!?!? WAKE UP PEOPLE!

buys: kci, bucy, ebix, midd, cedc, pcr, EZPW

agm - looks volatile, will look more tomorrow --- don't think there's a reason to stay awake for this one.

Missed out on 1000% --- PRSC

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Mon, 25 May 2009 17:02:00 +0000

Good Day,

I looked into this back in December too.

Back when it was below $1.

Thought it was a steal. http://www.divguy.com/2007/10/safe-dividend-stocks.html

http://www.glenbradford.com/blog/archive/2008_11_01_archive.html

I listened to conference calls, read the reports, did the research. But, none of the professors at Purdue really were able to answer my questions --- I didn't have the time and they didn't have the time. As I recall, I was very concerned about the negative shareholder equity. I was scared out of something I semi-understood and definately-believed in. *Mental Note*

So, I missed out on 1000%. Won’t be the first time. Damn that sucks.

What do we do with PRSC now?

Well, I wouldn’t buy it now. It’s too expensive (that means less reward and more risk to me) than other companies I’m looking at. Forward P/E of about 10 based on what I can tell. The upside is only 200% from this point. I'm a go big kind of guy. I do my best to eliminate the risk of going home empty handed.

Nicola, thanks for bringing this to my attention. Even though I missed out, it’s good to know that I was right on this one. Learn from your mistakes.

Glen

From: Nicola Vallieri [mailto:n.vallie
Sent: Monday, May 25, 2009 8:45 AM
To: gbradfo
Subject: Stock tip

Dear Glen,
I am still invested with most of my holding into PRSC which I am going to keep on holding for another year but I'd like your opinion about it.
PRSC was a real stock from "Providence" to me. I went all-in in early november after months of real blood bath, where I lost 3/4th of my initial capital. I bought the same day Obama won the election for the following reason: US government can't provide health service to everybody on its own. Moreover PRSC comes 1/3th of its business from states, which suddenly became nasty payers, causing a spiraling falling down of the PPS. I trusted the management when they said there was no problem with the debt convenants (see bk) and I was right. PRSC was the first company to exit the crises topping the russell 3000 index during the first quarter of this year. Looking forward I am confident PRSC will be the first company to regain its pre-crises value around 30$ cause growth is already there although it is still not so evident since the management decided to not pubblish their 2009 EPS guidance yet.
Anyway since I'm an engineer and I'm used to crunch numbers I tried to perform my own guidance with the data I got in early april. The result is the following:

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_P/threadview?bn=25927&tid=2014&mid=2032
(I'm vitruvian_boy)

Any suggestion from you would be greatly appreciated.

Thank you,
Nicola (Italy)

Coffee = Overpriced

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Mon, 25 May 2009 03:51:00 +0000

gmcr, cbou, ddrx --- i dunno. i had a list somewhere of the overpriced coffee stocks. i'm just saying like in Disney's movie Jungle 2 Jungle. Get out of Coffee.
cphi - still like it
chbp - scared, not always profitable
skbi/skbo - will look again later during when the market is open so i can look at the bid/ask. this thing is thinly traded and might be good.
hlf - not cheap enough for me to buy right now, but will likely outperform the market in the next 2 years, revenues sucked last 2 quarters
utvl - this thing is going to the NYSE. Tom suggested that there are more shares than google says there are out there, dont have time to check. mcconnel (purdue professor) suggested 5% appreciation on average before listing and 5% decline in price for 6 months post listing on NYSE.
pcap - like it
acas - like it
mcgc - like it
gnw - like it
cno - like it
ahr - like it
grvy - seems poorly managed. no increase in revenues and yet increased expenses.
gfre - guidance includes dilution, i'm scared!
jadae - most of its income is from its discontinued operations in 2008
sclx - following up with company, added to my sorting list.
utvl - huge growth potential, will it be exercised? i'll buy some
chcg - topside catalyst: franchise strategy, downside force: decreasing profit margins, i'll buy some - i sold at around $1.50 to buy other deals.
gtls - prolly will appreciate in price over the next 2 years. just not enough for me to mention
snen - blah, just don't know. what happens when this loss goes away? is the business growing? you'd think so... but there isn't a very clear trend to me. negative cash from operations lately. lets wait and see .. throw this with nwd

i need to look at
bucy, cedc, midd, and my old stocks again to dump some money into for an investor that wants a safer play.

Now --- for some emails:

First, a picture: I picked the bottom on this one. Luck or skill --- your choice.

So, what do we do now? It’s got a P/E of about 10, maybe a little higher than that. You are getting a 6.4% dividend here. The trailing 12 month P/E is 14.

Historically trades between $60-$70. Was as high as $50 recently.

You’re looking at 1 year upside potential of about 75% (maybe going higher than where they traded historically cause they picked up National City). I think we could very easily sell out of this around $50 here shortly --- or you could just bail now and try to ride something else with more upside.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
T --- I didn’t bet on this one. I don’t know whether it will outperform or underperform. If you don’t know, don’t bet.

You bought it at $20, which baffles me because its 52-week low was $20.90 according to Google. So, you got the bottom, luck or skill.

There’s a double bottom on this one in October and March around $21. They just increased their dividend in Q1 2009. Their dividend is sustainable and pays 6.9%. There was some huge acquisition or something at the beginning of 2007 that exploded revenues. I think from mid 2007 to mid 2008, this was overpriced because of this abnormal growth.

I’d be getting out at $30. I might even be willing to jump ship at $25 depending on if there is something else out there that’s better.

I just downloaded all the larger companies I was looking at this fall. Out of the batch of them, there are probably over half that are still improving as if there wasn’t a crisis, but are priced now as if the crisis is supposed to hurt business.

I’ll be sorting through them here shortly and if I think I can choose 2-3 of the best to replace PNC, that’s what I’ll do.
----------------------------------------------------------------
UTVL-Good call on the details. It is incredibly undervalued compared to its competitors. It just got listed on NYSE amex. There is some dilution.

Their SSD segment is losing sales fast. I don't know if that's due to cannibalization or what. Other segments are growing well. This last quarter they did not grow rev or earnings, but I think that's probably due to seasonality and the worst of the recession.

I'll probably invest a little and see what new things develop.

Tom
On Sun, May 24, 2009 at 10:02 AM, Bradford, Glen Richard wrote:
I think you are wrong here.

There were about 41M shares outstanding according to their 10K.

Then they reverse split on march 31, 2009. http://www.pinksheets.com/edgar/GetFilingHtml?FilingID=6513635

I think google’s share count is right.

What are your thoughts?

Glen

From: tcorm [mailto:tcorso] On Behalf Of Tom Corson-Knowles
Sent: Saturday, May 23, 2009 1:04 PM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: UTVL

Hey,

UTVL has the wrong market cap shown on google finance. There are 38M share outstanding, so the real book value is almost $230 M. With $18M expected income for 2009, before dilution, that P/E seems high at over 20.

Tom
---------------------------------------------------
The price goes up about 5% on the announcement and transition weeks, then trails off 5% over the next 6 weeks

________________________________________
From: Bradford, Glen Richard
Sent: Sun 5/24/2009 10:09 AM
To: McConnell, John J
Subject: OTCBB to NYSE Stock
Hey John,

First, I’d like to thank you for passing me in Finance the 3rd module this year. Second, I want your opinion on the average stock price changes on a company that goes from OTCBB to the NYSE.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hi Glen,

if you like ACAS, you'll love PCAP.

PCAP is in the same business, but has far fewer bad loans and a lower price/book, P/E and debt/equity.
They have violated bank covenants also, but only barely and recently.

Debt/equity is .96 vs 1.58 at ACAS, P/E (2010) 2.3 vs 4.2, price/book .22 vs .26

Slightly more expensive, but not much, is MCGC, which is in compliance with all covenants and will resume dividends earlier than the other two.

Among the chinese stocks, OPAI.OB is still trading at a P/E of 2, and half of book despite 30% growth.

I enjoy your articles very much. They are the best of all on SA, and I made a lot of money thanks to you.

Regards,

Fred

I could get used to R-Robbins

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Thu, 21 May 2009 05:27:00 +0000

hgsi - wow? I don't know what to make of this --- it's traded on 12 exchanges, what? a monster profit Q1 of 2009? Is that sustainable? I have no idea. Worth looking at if you understand these type of things. i clearly do not. Something Unusual around $38.9M.
ctic - another one of those non-for-profits as far as i'm concerned
cege - another one of those non-for-profits as far as i'm concerned
agen - not profitable in the last 5 years, negligable revenues, but a profit in q4 of 2008? Haha, too bad the profit is larger than the revenues. Looks like enron math.
htm - not profitable, i'd recommend back a look at dwsn and other geoimaging companies that make money. also maybe a look at GEOY --- seems like you like big ideas --- these are a few more
tgx - had a huge write down or something in Q4 2008. Profitable through the rest of 2007 and into 2009. But, not profitable enough for it to warrant a buy.
acad - another non-for-profit with negligable revenues.
sclx - rumor is: So 2008 was the first year with full production (100,000 tonnes). Since then they expanded to 350,000 tonnes (March 09) with plans for 1,000,000 tonnes expansion by the end of 2009 and 6,000,000 tonnes by the end of 2010.
khd - haha, this thing had like a P/E of 35. Whoops. still has a P/E of around 8. out of my price range at the moment.
to do:
xjt - someone remind me when this thing goes profitable or warn me before it does
abk - looks like the financial scape goat. this is the ultimate turnaround play. i'm not interested. this is what i see as a stupid risk. see you guys in vegas!
pmi - provides residential mortgage insurance products designed to promote homeownership. aren't those CDS? Isn't that what got us into this mess? still.. if this thing can put together some good numbers i'll hop aboard. right now people are confusing risk with the cheerios they eat for breakfast. Even bad ideas are going up like pmi and abk. Maybe they ran out of milk money and are pouring beer on their cheerios, getting drunk, and trading. This makes me more cautious.
ddrx - looks overpriced. i might short in my CAPS account, Coffee is like private education was 7 months ago, overpriced. This reminds me of when I tried to brew beer-coffee. Didn't work out too well.
nvax -- gross non-for-profit
sqnm -- gross non-for-profit
ghdx -- gross non-for-profit
fpic - not cheap enough. i'm looking to sift through stock price plane wrecks to find planes still flying, this one is in the air still
feed - already looked at this one, nobody would guess about 2009 for me. might as well stick with HOGS, but i own feed

to do list:
sclx - following up with company
ddrx - short?
utvl - huge growth potential
chcg - revisit
cno - revisit

2 Articles and my radar

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Mon, 18 May 2009 13:52:00 +0000

Anthracite Capital is Reinflating
By
Glen Bradford
Instead of talking about finance institutions that are being diluted like Citigroup (C) and financial institutions that are so hot they’re already above their November lows like Wells Fargo (WFC) and Goldman Sachs (GS), I’m going to introduce you to a better place where it’s bottoms up from here.
After getting the wind knocked out of it, Anthracite Capital shows signs of life. Granted that the price has probably exploded higher from $0.74 by the time this article gets published, let us use it at a baseline. What do we know about Anthracite at $0.74?
1. Anthracite is trading at a P/E of 0.487 if you knock out the Q4 2008 earnings nightmare and look back 1 year from Q3. The reason I took out Q4 is because the loss claimed appears to be a one-time huge write off, followed by positive earnings the next quarter.
2. Anthracite Capital is trading at a book value of 0.1.
3. Anthracite Capital is traded on the New York Stock Exchange. Let me repeat. This is a company cheaper than the listing requirements on the New York Stock Exchange. It either increases in price or eventually gets delisted.
All of these figures indicate that Anthracite is priced for bankruptcy. Where’s the good news?
1. They have pushed back the disaster twice already and have been in talks to resolve the issue. If I know anything about creditors, the last thing they want to do is run their debtors into the ground.
2. Anthracite was profitable in Q1 2009, just not as profitable as it used to be. If you optimistically flat line the profit figures from Q1 2009 into the future, your P/E is still 0.685. Note that Q1 of 2008’s Net Income Applicable to Common Shareholders is twice as large of that of any quarter as far back as I can see. So, comparing Q1 2009 to Q1 2008 isn’t fair to begin with. The bottom line here is that comparing the income of Q1 2009 to Anthracite’s history --- things match up but the revenues are weaker.
So, what am I doing about it? I’m buying. I probably already have a sizeable position. I’d say you could add this to my suggestions for 100% in 1 month, but that would be an understatement. I’d be surprised if AHR didn’t see $2 by June 18th.
Disclosure: Glen and his investors own AHR.

Title ideas: China: Harder, Better, Faster, Smaller
China: Go Small Or Go Home
By
Glen Bradford
Cramer’s a buyer of Bucyrus. I’ve been a fan of Bucyrus since I came across it in late August 2008. Back then, I grabbed the coattails of the top of the roller coaster and rode it down from $67 to $62. If I liked it then, imagine how much I like it now at $23, on its way back up. Up over 100% from its low, why is this growing company trading so cheaply with a P/E of 6.86? I’ve got one idea. Opportunity cost. If you want to play china the right way right now, you have to start small and work your way up to see the big picture.
Bucyrus makes the mining equipment. Let’s take a look at some folks that may use this kind of equipment and are trading at a discount to Bucyrus. To set the stage, Bucyrus has a P/E of 6.8 and is selling at 1.7x Book Value. Let’s look at some undervalued Oil and Coal ideas that are all less than half as expensive as Bucyrus with respect to both metrics.
1. Puda Coal (PUDC) is being featured at the China Rising Investment Conference today and is set to run from 10:00-10:30am. Puda Coal is a supplier of metallurgical coking coal to the industrial sector in the PRC. They are currently in the process of vertically integrating their supply chain. Goldman Sachs just upgraded the entire coal industry. The reason for upgrading the industry is mostly due to China. Looking at these numbers, I’m going to agree with Goldman.
2. Longwei Petroleum Investment Holdings (LPIH) is one of the leading diesel, gasoline, fuel oil and solvent oil distributors/wholesalers in Taiyuan City, Shanxi Province, P.R. China. Do note that they’re expansion is being financed through their working capital. Bank loans in China have been unbearably tough to get this last year --- so this is a strong point.
3. China North East Petroleum (CNEH) is engaged in the exploration and production of crude oil in Northern China. They just signed a contract to drill another 48 wells in the next 10 months, taking their total to 303 after the project is completed. Crunch the numbers and that’s 18% growth in production in 10 months.
4. Now, I would outline the advantages of China Energy (CHGY), but I did that 2 weeks ago. Instead I’ll give you a bonus pick that’s American. Crimson Exploration (CXPO) is even less than half of half as expensive by both metrics as Bucyrus. They are an independent natural gas and crude oil company engaged primarily in the United States, Gulf Coast and South Texas regions.
Now, I’m not telling you that you’re not likely to make a lot of money on Bucyrus right now. What I’m saying is that if you have two opportunities, and one of them is more likely to return more money than the other --- it would make sense to buy into the one with better returns, right? That said, Bucyrus in my opinion is definitely worth more in the long run. It’s trading less than its backlog and that’s pretty much sinful.
Disclaimer: Glen and his investors own LPIH, PUDC, CNEH, CHGY, CXPO.

Red Robin Post Half

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Sun, 17 May 2009 21:27:00 +0000

ddr - yes~! an REIT that's back to profits and is priced for the underworld
gsol - too expensive. i'm bargain shopping, remember?
myst - can get cheaper p/s, p/e and more predictability elsewhere If they pull big numbers out of a hat on cloud computing I’ll reconsider this as an option. Cloud computing in my opinion isn’t a commodity type product. This illustrates mediocristian vs extremism. In mediocristian, like farming, anyone can do it --- not a big deal. In extremism, like the NFL or NBA, not everyone gets the opportunity to play. But, if MYST is indeed a leader --- that’s a huge opportunity, I just see lots of questionable news. Also, 1/3 of their assets are intangibles (good news is that it’s not in goodwill but in copyrights) Be sure to watch the trend of online membership services.
sopw - Selling at 4x of book value ---also a killer for me P/S = 0.62 Not profitable -- that's a killer for me All sorts of stock option activity around $1 Most of sales are in asia, then to Europe then to USA, but the majority of their assets are in the USA
caah - doesnt make money, never really has, not interested.
nfes - not very stable incomes over the last 10 years. i'm scared --- P/E of 4, out of my price range, P/S = 1, P/B = 1
chng - canl --- too expensive. they are reverse splitting 2:1 trying to get listed. P/E is 3.86 and this thing is growing at 15%, the 10Q detective scared me off
cbak - not profitable, not interested, but i loved the battery idea
feed - eps .57 price 4.02 P/B 1.29 Growth 15%
HOGS: P 9.67 E 1.08 P/B 1.4 Growth 30%
igc - minority interest knocks this one to selling above book value. i'll stick with chfi
free - growth of 15%, earnings of .88, price of 1.58, p/b of .275
CPBY - p/b 1.5, price 2.92, eps .5, growth of 14%
utvl - p/b 2.5, price 5.8, eps 1, growth 20%
alrc - eps .58, price 1.16, growth 30%, p/b .46
ygyb - eps 0.72, price 2.30, growth 50%, p/b 2
to do:ytec,cga,hrbn

Whoah Nillies: gnw,pnx,cno,ob,ahr,ddr

I'll put up another radar here soon.

tomorrow alerts: http://www.chinarisingconference.com/presenting.html

Red Robin Half Time

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Fri, 15 May 2009 04:10:00 +0000

AGT.UN --- Not Interested – But I like Agrium instead in this sector
Based on what I can tell, it’s trading at a P/S of ¼. http://www.sedar.com/CheckCode.do;jsessionid=0000SXv4swJYiWjxrp5g69Y1SUo:-1

According to Google, the numbers are in CAD (Canadian Dollars). But According to sedar.com’s filings --- can’t tell. It is my understanding that any $ sign indicates USA Dollars --- but it doesn’t say as far as I can tell. Their cash flows from operations are negative.

Their notes 10 and 11 indicate that their accounts receivable are exploding and that a large part of their transactions are to related parties.

It looks like there has been some serious share dilution. Otherwise, everything looks good. But I think there are too many red flags for me to want to buy. For example, I could be one of 3 majority shareholders that are using this fund to slowly build accounts receivable and taking investors money by continuing to dilute shares.

Plus, this thing is really close to what google finance has for its 2 year high.

GMN.V --- not interested, but I like CHGY, LPIH, CNEH, and PUDC instead.

GMN.V is selling at ¼ of what it used to sell at. They are selling less than cash according to their Q1 2009 estimate. They are ditching $63M of discontinued operations. I’d ballpark that at $30M to be safe after getting rid of their discontinued liabilities.

Good news is they’re audited by Ernst and Young. Looking at Their last 8Q’s of Revs/Earnings. I’m not interested in GMN.V

HLR.UN --- interested

Glad to see this plummeting from $5 in mid 2007 to $0.75. Appears to be selling significantly less than book value $30M/$150M

Revenues from 2007 to 2008 have increased. Went from profitable to non-profitable, but their Gross profit increased. What happened?

Seems like their occupancy rates are above average. http://www.hlreit.com/site-hl/media/hlreit/Holloway_AR2008.pdf

Looks like they burned through $18M in cash from 2007 to 2008. They do have positive cash from operations, $15M.

This is a company that could turn around and make money in 2009 if we pull out of the global recession. The dividend would be somewhere around 70%. Right now it appears to be actively yielding 28%. They cut it in march but brought it back in april.

That said, I’m not interested at the moment because the trading volume at these lower prices is negligible. If the trend turns positive it’s worth looking at again. That said, if you want to sit on a fairly large dividend that was cut that appears to be coming back… not a bad idea. Looks like people were seriously jumping ship from September to early January, where the people stopped jumping and the stock doubled. Good news, nothing good has happened and it’s back down. This looks like a big potential winner to me.

alright, out of those the ones i'm taking a second glance at only made it to ahr so far. Watching Friday snen,esv,ne,atw,ahr,ddr,gsol,myst,sopw,caah,nfes,cbak,chng,feed,igc,free

round 2 thus far:

mhh - can't tell if it's growing, growth rate of 0% --- but it is cheap. P/E of 3.48. I don't know enough about this type of company, but I did research EBIX 5 months ago and liked that one. there's more comments: http://web.ics.purdue.edu/~gbradfor/glen/blog/2009/05/digest-obvious.html

snen - less shares outstanding than there were a year ago, growing sales, 35% of Book value, new tech of conversion of natural gas for automobiles - we'll say growth of 30% to compensate for loss of NI, but HUGE Revenue Growth; P/E of 1.37

esv - looks like it'll go up, but I like NOV too in this sector. I don't think either could go up 200% in less than a year.

ne -
heck, I like this one more than NOV and ESV just looking at it. this thing will probably outperform both of them

atw - like ne, just a tad more expensive.

ahr - yes, a finance company that's struggle city, priced for bankruptcy. what happens friday? i'll wait for the news and make a decision. should come out in 24 hours from when I wrote this.

Round Robin

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Thu, 14 May 2009 20:13:00 +0000

My computer's been down, I've gotten a lot of emails asking my thoughts on particular stocks. Here's what I've got for a first glance. If I missed your stock, let me know. There are probably duplicates. Remember my philosophy. When investing, it's not figuring out what to buy that makes you money --- it's figuring out what not to own.

ctic - don't like it, doesnt make money
ttnp - don't like it, doesnt make money
vnda - don't like it, doesnt make money
snen - looks interesting, heading towards a losing quarter. worth a second glance
apwr - too expensive for me
mesa - don't really want to buy airlines.
mbi - down to $5.69 from above $60. Woohoo. but i dont like their business model right now.
chng - too expensive, i'm looking for deals
clne - not down enough from it's 2 year high.
do - not down enough from it's 2 year high.
esv - looks reasonable, worth a second glance
ne - not down a lot from its 52 week high but it does have a low p/e. worth a second glance
atw - same as ne
free - i like this one, i have checked it out, great buying opportunity
ocnf - more risky than free, still need to look through it in depth
pncl - i dont like airlines but this one looks to have opportunity, will look into it
ahr - looks like it's down huge, could be a buy. will look into
ddr- looks like it's down huge, could be a buy. will look into
GSOL - looks itneresting, will need to dig deeper, don't like that the trading volume has gone down as the stock price has gone down
sclx - not interested, close to 52-week high, but their is a good growth story, will look for cheaper prices if it comes down
xhua - this looks like it died, they dont have revenues, not interested
myst - i like this one and will add it to my sorting list. odds are it'll be near the bottom though.
sopw - looks interesting, cheap solar potentially, will look into
caah - looks like it's been dying for 9 years. but it's cheap so i'll look into it
ckgt - i've liked this since 30 cents. no reason to change now.
nfes - looks like it's worth looking into
cbak - looks worth looking into
ltus - like this one, own it
sina - don't think it's cheap enough based on 2 year charts
found this link: http://www.cnanalyst.com/upside/
hrbn - P/S = 2, not cheap enough
ntes - 52 week high, not interested
chng - not cheap enough, but looks solid just from the numbers, probably will go x2 in 3 years
feed - accidently bought it --- but no reason to sell, i was trying to buy free. wish I ran across it in march. school gets in the way of everything
cneh - dirty dirty cheap. gotta love it. i own it.
cnoa - bob's got me cautious on this one, but i still own it and am a net buyer.
siaf - pink sheet, no way.
caah - sucks for last 9 years, worth investigating if they will suck for the next 9 of if there's actually some substance.
cbak - on my investigation list
cpst - not profitable
igc - looks like a potential idea, low trading volume. worth looking into
bcon - not cheap enough unless something is going on. lemme know
cpst - not profitable, yuck
geoy - chris fernandez pick, this thing is a trader's dream. i think i'm going to start trading this one. buy when it's oversold, sell when it's overbought.

alright, out of those the ones i'm taking a second glance at: snen,esv,ne,atw,ahr,ddr,gsol,myst,sopw,caah,nfes,cbak,chng,feed,igc,free

Reader Feedback

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Mon, 11 May 2009 15:18:00 +0000

Hi Glen,

My portfolio has increased another 10% since Friday. Conseco blasted off on today's 1Q earnings report. I can't believe I picked it up at 48 cents and it's hit a high of 3.90 today. My numbers are fast approaching $3500 and expect that to double yet again in the next few months. I'm taking a little off the top on some of my investments to further diversify my China portfolio. I'm attaching a screen capture of my 6 month returns to verify my numbers as of May 9th - plus the cash on hand from today's sales. These numbers represent following your blog advice and nothing else. Remarkable. Simply remarkable.

Best,

D.A.Wagner

100% in 1 Month Financials

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Mon, 11 May 2009 05:18:00 +0000

100% in 1 Month Financials
By
Glen Bradford

I think that if you’re a professional money manager and you don’t make 100% return in 1 year starting today --- you should look into other forms of employment.

Jim Cramer is right. I’m going to stand up and shoot for 100% in 1 month with a couple stocks. All of them are set for huge gains when the mutual funds grab them at $5.

Conseco (CNO) --- I’ve been yelling about this one since $0.33 when I backed up the truck. I came up with a 2009 EPS of $0.85 weeks before the analyst updated his estimate to include the restructure I forecasted. You too can ride this to $7 --- more than 100%.

Genworth Financial (GNW) --- They didn’t need the TARP. That’s a sign of strength. Just popped to $5. Next stop: $12. Get ahead of the curve and allocate your holdings where the money is heading next. Don’t wait!

American Capital (ACAS) --- I am anticipating a restructure of their current debt obligations. Note that this can bring back a huge yield if you sit tight. Odds are the restructure will eat out of short term (1-2 years) profit margins, but the stock price will soar. $8 is just around the corner.

I don’t respect people that recommend things that they themselves do not own. That’s why I’m long all the companies mentioned in this article. If you’re interested in banks, shoot the middle of the road and start with the ones that are down the most over the last 2 years and up the most over the last 2 months. That way you’ll pick up bargain banks that hopefully aren’t dead beats. A couple that I own are Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) and Huntington Bancshares (HBAN).

Disclosure: Glen and his investors own CNO, GNW, ACAS, FITB, HBAN

Glen Bradford
Purdue Industrial Engineer
Masters in Business Administration
www.glenbradford.com

Well. Logic Errors run rampant.

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Mon, 11 May 2009 05:16:00 +0000

Well. Logic Errors run rampant.
By
Glen Bradford

For example. Back when kids had to walk up hills both ways to get to school in the snow and kids ate ice from the ice man off the street (the good old days), it was financially savvy to buy larger lot sizes of shares (you paid for the volume as opposed to a flat fee). My grandma has a couple rules that she inherited that will in my opinion prevent her from taking advantage of steals. One of them is she refuses to buy overpriced companies. She likes them between $10 and $50. So, I asked her if she wanted to buy a share of Google for $100. “No way. That’s too expensive.” How about a share of Berkshire for $200? “What are you Glen, crazy?”

My dad likes to hold on to losers in the attempt to “wait them profitable.” To me, here’s how I look at things: I have two companies. One I own, one I don’t own. The one I own is down 50% from its high and I feel like crap. I just lost 50%! The one I don’t own is down 95% from its high and upon further research, indicates that business still exists and is growing, where my one that is down 50% is kind of taking a beating on the business side too. Now, from my dad’s perspective, selling the one down 50% is a fools game. From my perspective, not reallocating into the steal is a fools game. The side note to this is that when you see a lot of people selling a stock, the goal is to get ahead of where the money is heading at any given point in time. It’s really hard to predict this, but if you see your stock getting hit by a steaming locomotive, a speeding bullet, and getting jumped by Wall Street’s hoodlums like a girl scout's cookies at fat camp --- you might want to get out and get back in at a lower price.

Human behavior loves trends. You see this traditional cycle where somehow stock analysts continue to have jobs of forecasting what the stock price used to be by using a little less logic and a little more of what the stock price is now. Don’t fight the trend unless you believe you can keep aliens from reading your mind by wearing aluminum foil around your head or predict the stock market cycles by using solar cycles or astrology.

Size matters. Everyone loves talking about large companies. They have the most shareholders. The largest companies in the world probably can’t double in size as easily as the smallest company in the world. For example, I don’t see Exxon Mobil doubling in size as easily as the one-man barber shop down the street. Heck, the guy could call my sister up and have a floor sweeper in about 10 minutes and have doubled his work force. I see no reason to own these touted companies at their higher prices. Look at most investors portfolios (if you can peek past their mutual funds). What do they own? This large cap garbage.

Jeremy Siegel has empirically proven numerous times that stocks outperform most everything in the long run. My mom can’t stop buying gold. I didn’t care really --- until I found out she was selling my most undervalued holding because it was up 50%. Even though I tried really hard, she seemed incapable of understanding how selling a company at less than half of net cash (cash – total liabilities) to buy gold (paying 20% of the cost to brokerage fees) not only seemed like a ridiculously more risky proposition to me, but also in my opinion was getting nothing for something.

What’s with this “playing with the house’s money” garbage? I called up the “house” and they confirmed that it indeed was my money. This is a logic error at its finest. You should always allocate your portfolio to maximize your returns. Convincing yourself you’re playing for free, when in reality you are still playing with your own money is pretty much the dumbest idea that everyone at wall street loves to propagate.

Well, that’s a pretty good snippet, don’t-cha think?

Glen

From: Jon Slotnick
Sent: Monday, May 11, 2009 12:48 AM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: Re: New Dragon Asia?

P.S. What are "old-fasioned rule mechanisms?"
On Sun, May 10, 2009 at 9:44 PM, Bradford, Glen Richard wrote:
Jon,

I think it’s a bargain, just don’t own any --- I sold out. I will buy back in if it turns a profit and is still cheap. There are less risky more profitable ideas out there.

Hope this helps, convincing my father to sell out was a pain in the neck. He doesn’t like to sell at a loss. There are a lot of old fashion rule mechanisms that I’ve been jotting down so that I have some good material for an article once I get enough of them.

Glen

From: Jon Slotnick
Sent: Monday, May 11, 2009 12:25 AM
To: gbradf
Subject: New Dragon Asia?

Dear G.B.,
I read your blurb on NWD and am holding 30,000 shares @ .17. Not sure if the company will stay afloat after Friday's 10-Q, or actually is a bargain at these prices. What do you think?

Thanks,

Jon

Knowledgable Gene Franco

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Sat, 09 May 2009 23:05:00 +0000

Ahh the macro view.

I had an interesting conversation with a private equity analyst at Blackstone last month, his basic thesis was that commodity export dependent and goods export dependent economies are basically a form of leveraged economy and will run up the most during this recovery.

The US manufactures guns, no butter, and some MTV. No leverage.

They talk about the BRIC's, but it's really the IC's, Brazil and especially Russia are not in the same league as China and India, which have simply plowed through this recession without much of a whimper, and China's economy is much more commodity export and goods export dependent than India's, which seems to be service based.

One play I have now are 'triple happiness' stocks, e.g. PetroChina and China North East Petroleum, which have:

1) large reserve value increases due to dollar increase per bbl as the dollar devalues and demand picks up, reinflating per bbl oil prices

2) large cashflow increases due to dollar increase per bbl as the dollar devalues and demand picks up, reinflating per bbl oil prices

3) tremendous organic growth funded via assets which throw off gobs of cash

I sold off PTR and placed most of it into CNEH at the start of the month and it's produced a handsome return, but no sense looking a gift horse in the mouth, I need to diversify into some other China plays. Hence the screen.

-Gene

On Sat, May 9, 2009 at 5:00 PM, Bradford, Glen Richard wrote:
I agree.

Dumb money is what makes the stock market go so low and so high. We are on the upswing. Look to the VIX when the S&P is down, when both were down, I started loading up. The bottom was in.

I agree with all the money on the sidelines not sitting there much longer. Where is it going? USA Stocks or foreign stocks?

Last time I checked (like 4 months ago) the deals aren’t here. The money and exchange rates are looking good in eastern Europe and places where commodity exports are leading GDP drivers.

Only number crunch when you have to. If you want to know about dryshipping, just go visit a big boat yard and ask around if the jobs are good and see if ships are moving.

Glen

From: Eugene Franco [mailto:efranc]
Sent: Saturday, May 09, 2009 4:43 PM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: Re: EMH and Chinese Small Caps

mutual fund follow on*
On Sat, May 9, 2009 at 4:42 PM, Eugene Franco wrote:
Since you like data crunching and your resume lists quite an array of programming and statistical knowledge, maybe you'd find this data fun to play with:

http://www.ici.org/stats/mf/index.html

The two most interesting pieces I've been looking at are the mutual fund money flows, and the money market assets.

One can see a clear flight to safety with MMA Gov't assets soaring 70% or $600 Billion from August 2008 to March 2009, massive dry powder.

The data indicates the dry powder is starting to be ignited, with $120B total drop in MMA assets of which $100B is MMA Gov't, but it would appear that ~80% of the dry powder is still remaining.

What's interesting is that most of this seems to be going directly into stocks, rather than heading into mutual funds, which have only seen $15B net inflows the past month.

So methinks this run up driven by hedge funds and retail traders that are pulling cash out of MMA, and that there will soon be a follow on as people reallocate their 401(k)'s back to stocks (dumb money).

Thoughts?

On Sat, May 9, 2009 at 3:51 PM, Eugene Franco wrote:
In HS to win stock competitions I just used two opposite high alpha portfolios.

Porfolio A has 10 highest alpha stocks.
Portfolio B is short 10 highest alpha stocks.

That was my temporary solution to the Kobayashi Maru, hahaha. Of course it doesn't work in real life, just silly high school stock competitions.

Eugene

On Sat, May 9, 2009 at 3:46 PM, Bradford, Glen Richard wrote:
Yeah,

Too bad they wouldn’t remove my first 2 weeks of trades. I was just putting stuff in and out to see how easy CAPS was to use.

Oh well,

Glen

From: Eugene Franco [mailto:efranc
Sent: Saturday, May 09, 2009 3:43 PM

To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: Re: EMH and Chinese Small Caps

amen.

btw, nice caps rating!

Ahh.... overheating is an old friend..in high school I ran a P4 with a refrigeration unit (it sat under the desktop, I kid you not) so I could overclock it. In college my desktop used to crash from running backtesting on years worth of data, I would have to run the backtests at night when the dorm room was cooler and pray in my sleep that the test would run to completion.

I ended up upgrading to a dual core pc, my time was worth more than the $800 for a new desktop.

A touchscreen, sounds exciting, not sure I see the connection to operations research stock market software. What will the software do?

-Eugene
On Sat, May 9, 2009 at 2:24 PM, Bradford, Glen Richard wrote:
Gene,

Not a big deal. It’s not malware. It’s overheating. Plus, I use computers about 10x harder than your average user. Granted, I’m not doing autocad --- but I’m always downloading and analyzing large quantities of data.

Good news is I’m getting a touchscreen and I’ve wanted to write some operations research stock market software so that I can use that to its full capacity.

Glen.

From: Eugene Franco
Sent: Saturday, May 09, 2009 2:19 PM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: Re: EMH and Chinese Small Caps

Oh no, I hope it isn't too serious of a crsh.

I had my computer taken over by malware in January, which is amusing considering I run 2 antivirus programs, and don't download garbage. The malware programmers are becoming better, they now block updates from anti-virus sites, block the anti-virus programs from running, lock the files to prevent them from being deleted, and prevent reboots into safemode.

After spending the weekend dealing with that I now have no fewer than 3 anti-malware guards and 2 anti-virus programs running, it's really getting outrageously ridiculous for windows xp.

Take care,
Gene
On Sat, May 9, 2009 at 1:53 PM, Bradford, Glen Richard wrote:
Eugene,
Glad you’re thinking. I agree with your X, Y, Z concept. My adjustment to it would be that that time Z would also include an environment that doesn’t change. Since the environment is constantly changing, the stock market is kind of a lagging indicator. There’s all sorts of inefficiencies.

Great! I love lists. My computer crashed www.glenbradford.com/blog I’ll let you know when I get things back up and running.

Glen

From: Eugene Franco
Sent: Friday, May 08, 2009 8:38 PM
To: gbradfo
Subject: EMH and Chinese Small Caps

Hey Glen,

Enjoyed your post on EMH on your blog and your articles on Seeking Alpha.

I had the EMH debate with a friend at Goldman Sachs FICC, the conclusion we came to is that for EMH to hold true one needs sufficient players X and freely available information for all parties Y, and these would eventually be reached given enough time Z.

I've been hand screening the universe of Chinese micro caps, and am curious what fields you use for your personal screen (i've weeded 700 down to ~30, but I am having trouble weeding the list down further). The screen results are attached. I'm currently long CNEH, but I'm looking to diversify my position with some investments in unrelated industries before I add leverage.

Take care,
Gene

Beating The Market AND Making Money

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Sat, 09 May 2009 19:57:00 +0000

It's official,

My strategy is making money since late July 2008 and I was fully invested in bullish stocks and options the whole crash through.

That means I'm beating the market too. I will document the track record charts when I get my laptop up and running.

Glen

CNOA Caution: Computer Still Crashed

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Sat, 09 May 2009 19:20:00 +0000

First, you get an "A" for coming up with the answers. I am sure that was not fun. My comments, in red, below. Bob
I don't pull any punches, the comments are meant to be constructive. I am sure you will take them that way. Bob

On Sat, May 9, 2009 at 10:28 AM , Bradford, Glen Richard wrote:

Here goes with the answers. Looks like I might have bagged a loser in disguise.

You will look like a prudent and thoughtful person if you generate a cautionary note , which says that you have
discovered what appear to be areas which deserve to be explored in more detail, and will let everyone know if you can recomment the stock, in the future. No need to go any farther. If you choose to exit your position, I think that should be disclosed. Bob.

Glen

From: Bob B
Sent: Thursday, May 07, 2009 3:01 PM
To: Bradford, Glen
Subject: RE: CNOA book value, "10 Best Chinese"

Glen,

These are not rhetorical questions, I really would like a response. You are dealing with other people's money here.
A one word answer on each will be appreciated.

Did you know that China Organic financed approx 100% of the Bellissimo aquisition cost? Off hand, No. That is what the internet is for. Google Bellissimo Vinyard and you would have come up with the sales price, and the terms. This would fall in the category of "you should have known."
Did you know that 50% of the $14 M cost was allocated to land, 50% to high end residences? Off hand, No. I found that in the SEC filings.
Did you know that 10 months after acquisition, their FS carries the California Multi-Million housing category assets "At Cost" and reflects no significant impairment of the asset? I assume that this vineyard is worth significantly less than they paid for it, maybe worth $1M. The problem may lie in the vinyard, but it DEFINATELY exists with the housing. California Res Market is rat shit, especially in high end homes, they state $7M of improvements, which is the housing, the earlier buyer folded up, etc, etc. We can figure out a reasonable value on the vinyard portion of the asset a lot easier than the res portion. UNtil we know the history of the property (which is required by USPAP) we are flying blind.
Did you know that FASB requires an asset impairment to be addressed? Yes. Excellent.
Did you know that a US based financial consultant who was taken on specifically to assist with accounting deficciencies for Sorbanes-Oxley purposes has severed his relationship with the firm? I believe that was what the lawsuit was about.
Did you know of the two directors resignations of this week? Nope, haven’t been able to keep up. But now that I know this, I’m going to act accordingly. That was real late-breaking news. A reasonable person would realize that info was probably not in the system when you were forming your opinion.
Did you know there was an appraisal of the property? I did not. If you found that they were financed by a Life Insurance Co, and you had experience in Deeds of Trust, FIRREA, etc, you would know that Life cos always require commercial appraisals. So you're learning. Now you know, and you will never forget it.

Glenn, I am not trying to bust your chops. I don't want you to become a legend for the wrong reasons!
I am trying to understand what you knew when you wrote your article. In my life experience, at the time you submitted your article, either
1. you knew some of these facts, or 2. you should have known, or 3. they are new,breaking news.
Nobody should think poorly of you if you disclosed more.

Bob
PS I got new info of MAIs, there are 5 in China, if you include Hong Kong.
================================================

On Thu, May 7, 2009 at 7:35 AM , Bradford, Glen Richard wrote:

> Yep,
>
> Was aware of the lawsuit. Makes things interesting.
>
> I'll probably revisit my investment thesis this weekend to look for more cracks.
>
> Glen
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Bob B
> Sent: Thursday, May 07, 2009 4:12 AM
> To: Bradford, Glen Richard
> Subject: RE: CNOA book value, "10 Best Chinese"
>
> more info on the lawsuit. Plus, they are carrying Bellissimo at cost,
> and have not recognized any impairment on the asset. About $7M for the
> structures was their cost allocation. Assume 50 percent depreciation,
> which could be light. another $7 on the land. No grape sales. Life
> Insurance co financed, I assure you it was appraised. Lawsuit says it
> was a classic pump and dump securities fraud.
>
> http://securities.stanford.edu/1041/CNOA_01/
>
> Bob
>
>
>
> On Wed, May 6, 2009 at 4:51 AM , Bradford, Glen Richard wrote:
>
> > Just about to take a final. I think they overpaid. But I am
> > optimistic. Sure, sometime next week we could dig deeper.
> > glen
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Bob B
> > Sent: Wednesday, May 06, 2009 3:41 AM
> > To: Bradford, Glen Richard
> > Subject: CNOA book value, "10 Best Chinese"
> >
> > Glen,
> >
> > First, the Appraisal Institute hasn't got back on my inquiry of the
> > number of MAIs in USA vs China, sometimes I think once someone's paid
> > their dues they ignore you.
> >
> > Your summary on CNOA mentions "When you look at the value of a
> > California Wine label in China where China Organic distributes the
> > stuff, you begin to see the big picture profit potential."
> >
> > Okay, I'll bite, what IS the value of a
> > California wine label in China?
> >
> > Bellisimo doesn't produce wines, it grows grapes. Did the sale of
> > Bellisimo involve a California wine label?
> > I think Bellisimo can be viewed as a couple of high end residences,
> > located on a vinyard. Since it is pretty well documented that
> > California high end homes of the multi million dollar variety have a
> > history of drastic percentage decline in value since the date of the
> > Bellisimo transaction, and that market has not recovered, I suggest
> > that the book value should reflect that fact. I am not saying it
> > isn't there, but I don't see it. It looks to me like they paid more
> > than appraised value for it (Is that why suddenly you see blue sky
> > cropping up. . . ) I Suggest you request a copy of the appraisal
> > that was done at the time of purchase.
> >
> > You imply CNOA paid cash and own it free and clear, but I would sure
> > like to know if that is the case, or not. IF not, the implications
> > might be huge. Consider:
> >
> > It makes a big difference if they paid $14M, borrowed $9 million, and
> > now it has a Current Market Value of, say, $6M, doesn't it? Makes an
> > even bigger difference if that has not been properly disclosed, ot
> > maybe it has, and you haven't figured it out. That might lead you
> > to say that CNOA bought Bellisimo for about $14M and is trading at
> > $23M. That would change the net value of their interest in Bellisimo
> > from "14M" to "NEGATIVE 3 Million" that potential swing of 17 million
> > in book value would have a significant impact on Book Value, in your
> > matrix, wouldn't it?
> >
> > If you get a copy of the appraisal, I will be happy to review it with
> > you, no charge, just tell you what I see. It will be real interesting
> > to see how they developed their opinion of the Highest and Best Use
> > of the property. MAIs who do vinyards are very sensitive to the
> > business value, value of brands, the value of lands, the difference
> > between going concern value vs. liquidation value vs Current Market
> > Value, Highest and Best Use, etc.
> >
> > Since you are emphasizing Book Value in your matrix, I thought you
> > would want to zero in on exactly what CNOA's Book Value is? What CNOA
> > bought, what the current value is, or was at year end, and whether the
> > "GAAP accounting" that they say they are in conformance with has
> > recognized the decline in value from when they bought it. I will be
> > happy to put you in touch with an MAI who specializes in values of
> > Vinyards, etc, in that area, if you like. Never set foot on one,
> > myself.
> >
> > Lots to learn here, lots of wealthy people are interested in wines.
> > Doug Casey is into Argentine Wines in the Salta region. Are you
> > familiar with him? Interesting classmate of Bill Clinton's. Lots of
> > Canadian Mining stock experience. Hard money guy.
> >
> > Bob

Computer Crash

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Sat, 09 May 2009 17:49:00 +0000

Hey David,

Glad to hear. My computer crashed yesterday so I bought a new one but am working on a borrowed one until I’m up and running again.

So, shoot me an email again in a week or so to make sure that I have you on my email list. I backed up the email list --- but who knows.

Glad you’re doing well.

Glen

From: D.A.Wagner
Sent: Saturday, May 09, 2009 7:11 AM
To: gbradfo
Subject: Update

Hello Glen,

I wrote you on April 6 to let you know how I've been doing. At that time I'd doubled what was left of my old portfolio. Now it's May 9 and it's actually more than quadrupled. I looked back at my starting figures and there was $768 in my Scottrade Account last November 11, 2008. Now there's over $3200 and I keep adding new stocks every week or two from your China lists. I share my success with friends, but they don't quite believe me, they think I'm getting duped. Pretty funny considering I'm doing my own trading.

Thanks for restoring my faith in thinking outside of the box.

Best,

D.A.Wagner

Digest the obvious

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Wed, 06 May 2009 23:42:00 +0000

Everyone is deriving absolutely idiotic conclusions on ACAS.

American Capital's Board of Directors will make a decision on the allocation of the dividend between cash and stock which will be announced at the time of declaration.

They also got approved the possibility of 4 stock splits a year and usually pay a divided each quarter.

1+1+1+1=4.

I see stock dividends in the near future as they restructure their debt covenants.

I hope that the idiots out there are SELL SELL SELL, I'll BUY BUY BUY.

I'll watch the short term gaming on this one. I might sell out and buy in lower. That usually makes sense, right? Thought so.

Fear the Idiots. It makes no sense to run headstrong into a "poorly founded" stampede, cause you're still going to get knocked to the ground like in the Lion King.

Too Good To Be True?

noreply@blogger.com (Glen Bradford) — Wed, 06 May 2009 20:46:00 +0000

Your name is Glen too?

Yep, you’d think so. Because I can’t drive to their HQ’s because they are in China and deliver a punch to the face of top management, I diversify across my top ideas. I figure a couple of these companies will screw me and that by diversification I can slowly eliminate this risk.

For example, CYXI is a company that I’ve been watching. They closed their factory and their CFO quit as well as some plant auditors. I still have no idea what the hell is going on --- but until I do I am not buying. The greatest risk is of course taking a dumb one. Granted, all of these companies could be lying to me. Maybe I’m a sucker for a great story?

I believe that these opportunities exist because nobody else knows about them. As their stories propagate the public investing community --- I’ve developed a theory that the market makers must first drive their stock price to bargain prices for people like me to start buying them and spreading the word. I figure they might dump 10% of the company at retardedly low prices just to get enough trading.

I tried to write an article China MicroCRAPS? To illustrate this perspective. Didn’t get run. Fortunately, the head of seekingalpha is now on my side.

So yeah, I deal in probabilities and estimations and I do my best to eliminate the risk of loss on each investment. I do this by making sure they SAY they are profitable, check the cash from operations, ORS didn’t do that, whoops! Not on my buy list anymore. I dumped at $1.04 for 300% profit. I got lucky. But I know so much about statistics that I know how people use them to lie and actually used them back in the day to illustrate that people that say stuff in Psychology is statistically significant are just playing a fools game. I read the Black Swan, Blew my mind.

I also make sure that they SAY they are growing and are selling less than their CHINESE Book Value, which could be more lies. Then, they have to be cheap as all get out and I’m in like rumplestiltskin.

All this leads me to my main point. Uncertainty will certainly work for me, not against me.

Hope this helps,

Glen Bradford

From: igt500
Sent: Wednesday, May 06, 2009 4:26 PM
To: gbradfo
Subject: Chinese microcaps..

Hi Glen,

Nice work your doing! Actually it looks to good to be true.. and that's what worries me.

Accounting fraud runs rampid in micro caps as I'm sure you are aware of.. but how can we be more certain they are safe?

I also wonder why there are no serious insider purchases at these levels? Though I realize some insiders do have large positions already.. however.. why haven't they purchasing more at these insane prices? Not to mention the institutions that have extremely small positions in some of these stocks.. why haven't they purchased more? Can it be that they are all restricted from buying micro caps?

I have purchased small quantities of shares in some of these companies.
Can you offer additional information even for a fee.. that may prompt me to invest a greater dollar amount?

Please advise.. I look forward to hearing from you.

Glen ~(not Glen Bradford --- is this another Glen? or did he just put my name?)