just my notes:
have you done any research on the total institutional holdings for SPMD and DEXO now that kyle bass has bought in? i feel like the shares short are mostly offset by long institutions at this point.
Dexo for example:
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/dexo/institutional-holdings#.UQhkAL-eGSk
81% long by the listed institutions plus the 10% from kyle bass gets to 91% long. plus Robert E. Mead 8.64%
http://secfilings.com/searchresultswide.aspx?link=1&filingid=9075178
99.64% Long holders, registered, institutional holders and 20% short.
then you have 20% short:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=DEXO+Key+Statistics
so basically if you assume the institutions aren’t going to scare out at this point you have a situation… where if the shorts start to try and cover they cannot at this price, as they must find a price where 9% of the institutional holders are willing to part ways with the stock…
another thing is that the investment thesis here has to be crisis price driven, and i’d be surprised to see this trade less than p/fcf