Today: YPG is 283K advertisers, 43% digital, ARPA is 3256 on 1100 sales people
Today: DXM is 600K advertisers, 24% digital, 2000 sales people – reverse engineer arpa 3777
Q1 2011 YPG was 25% digital:
http://www.ypg.com/images/ckeditor/files/2011_Q1_PR.pdf
so, the time that it has taken to go from 25% digital to 43% digital for YPG was ~1000 days
http://www.convertunits.com/dates/from/Mar+31,+2011/to/Jan+15,+2014
canaccord basically says that at 50-60% digital EV/EBITDA is 5x — right now at 43% YPG is at 3.3x according to canaccord
https://research.canaccordgenuity.com/_layouts/researchnoteviewer.aspx?pubid=100594
here is a reasonable perspective on dxm
http://alphavulture.com/2013/11/26/valuation-of-highly-leverageddistressed-equities/
the dex media debt comes due december 31, 2016
the days between now and when the dex media debt comes due is ~1081 days
http://www.convertunits.com/dates/from/Jan+15,+2014/to/Dec+31,+2016
http://www.marketfolly.com/2013/05/kyle-bass-sohn-conference-presentation.html
so that’s about it.. a pre-existing example of a situation that is pulling through in around the same timeline as we are expecting dex media to do the same thing.
can they do it? people say things are more competitive state side.
well. here is what i’m looking at… Q4 was supposed to be stronger for dxm because of how they were selling “prove me” bundles.
also the cross selling of spmd products to dexo clients and vice versa should boost digital Q4 an Q1
if you ctrl+f look at their last Q3 conference call transcript, the word digital comes up 56 times.
1. selling digital at higher prices than average or something?
“Yes, as I indicated earlier, we’ve seen slight improvement in the AVO there. As we enhance bundles and we enhance the solutions packages that we’re selling and you’re selling bigger packages, you’re taking folks across a broader space in the digital arena, I think those packages will command more value”
and then…. on missing.
As I mentioned in my remarks, we were looking for additional lift or additional effect in the Dex One markets of the bundled solutions that didn’t come to fruition to the degree that we were looking for. We also did not get the lift in retention rates on the — in the SuperMedia markets with some of those. We are looking to address those with some of the cross rollouts of their respective products and some of the new solutions. As well as Peter indicated, there’s a lot of activities around integration. There was a lot of elements that we were driving for in the business to position it for the future. Isolating exactly what the component was that changed those trend lines or moved those trend lines to the flat level. As you would expect putting specific metrics around it is very difficult to do, but there was a lot of contributing factors there. We are looking to address all of those with solutions as we move through fourth quarter and into 2014 to change that trend line.
and
And we have 200,000 clients, which is a great base to build on in the digital area. So — and we’re getting results. And that’s one of the things that sets us apart in thinking about this is every one of our clients that allows us to, which is almost all of them, we track to make sure that we’re getting results for our advertisers. And so from a color standpoint, I wouldn’t think about a client or a couple of clients. I think that what you’re looking at is what we build as client base. And we believe that we have a bright future with the opportunities we have with the solutions that are out there.
and
We believe we have opportunity to grow the digital. And the solutions and the tactical plans that we’re putting into the marketplace and getting out right now to start to drive that result. We believe we’ll see them bear fruit and change these trend lines. It’s a question as we move through the markets in the fourth quarter and into the 2014, but we do believe we have opportunity, we have the solutions, we have the assets in place to drive digital.
lastly
It combines — the combined companies have 200,000 of digital clients. And so we are rolling out — and part of the merger, part of this integration or part of the benefit is that some of the products that were in one company will share across the other company and vice versa. So we can expand our product launch to the entire footprint over the next couple of quarters.
Samuel D. Jones – Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President and Treasurer
Yes, I mean, we have a base of 200,000 clients with digital solutions already. So over 1/3 of our existing client base have digital solutions with us. With the cross launches of products, we’re looking to drive that penetration higher.
And that would, I would think, eventually lead to a higher digital sales, which would be certainly important.
Peter J. McDonald – Chief Executive Officer, President and Director
That’s the objective.
and
AVO has been fairly stable, slightly declining. There are some decreases in the market plus with the bundled solutions that we put out in some of the discounting programs that we utilize, I’ve seen see a slight decline in average order price in aggregate. The digital side’s kind of moved up, but the aggregate has come down slightly.