Apple doesn't lower price (see constant/even growing iPhone asp over past three years) and unmatched economies of scale should lead to gross margin expansion in 2012. Then consider that Apple's R&D and G&A are much, much lower than their peers and as a percentage of revenue these expenses are shrinking for the last 5+ years every single year. Tax rates are also falling as revenue mix shifts overseas. Net income % has been up every year for the past 5+ years. I see margins up in 2012 and 2013 for all these reasons. Sent from my iPhone On Dec 5, 2011, at 6:17 AM, "Glen Bradford" <globalspeculation@gml.com> wrote: > These analysts are good at charting trends and forecasting exponential > growth curves. My question is when does the exponential growth model > stop holding up? That I don't know. > > Sure apple is cheap if you look at their historical trends and > forecast them forward and they are cheap based on their last few > quarters projected forward ex cash. > > http://boombustblog.com/BoomBustBlog/Yes-That-s-Right-The-Only-and-I-M > ean-th > e-Only-Investment/Research-House-To-Warn-Of-An-Apple-Miss-Is-Vindicate > d.html > > http://boombustblog.com/BoomBustBlog/Sliced-Apples-For-Dinner.html > > sure reggie is a little crazy, but what happens if their margins get > cut significantly? Then it is like 32x earnings ex cash and they > aren't growing.. > > it's just tough for me... and this worry is why I don't own it... > maybe I'm stupid. I hope so and I hope you make money. > > Do Not Lose, > > Glen Bradford > CEO ARM Holdings LLC > www.glenbradford.com > www.armholdingsllc.com > > > > None of the above is intended as investment advice. I can't guarantee > the information I gathered is from an accurate source. I may buy or > sell any stock or security without prior notice. > Disclaimer: http://www.glenbradford.com/disclaimer.php > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Adam Pensack [mailto:adampensack@yho.com] > Sent: Sunday, December 04, 2011 10:06 PM > To: Glen Bradford > Subject: Re: Email List Revival > > AAPL will be the big winner of 2012. Check these two sites from 2 of > the top > 5 AAPL analysts on Earth. > > Aaplmodel.blogspot.com > > Postsateventide.com > > Sent from my iPhone > > On Dec 4, 2011, at 6:49 PM, Glen Bradford <admin@armholdingsllc.com> wrote: > >> In the past 5 years I spent up till about March of this year >> believing in > the Chinese growth miracle. I'm not particularly fond of it anymore. > Apparently studying fraud in MBA school was no match for the blatant > fraud of the filings that happens in China. It could be worse... > meaning that I could still believe their lies. >> >> At this point I thought it would be fun to revisit this email list >> and > point out the latest news that appears actionable. >> >> > http://seekingalpha.com/article/293357-lee-enterprises-buying-opportun > ity-of > -a-lifetime >> >> Over the weekend Lee Enterprises announced that they intend to >> complete > their refinancing: >> http://lee.net/newsreleases/pdf/Lee%20NR%20refinancing%20120211.pdf >> >> I've been following Lee for some time. I think it's a bargain at the > present price of anything less than $1. >> >> Of course I could be wrong, I obviously was wrong on DJSP and I was >> wrong > on anything in China and I will likely be wrong again in the future > and I could be wrong on Lee Enterprises. >> >> Just thought it was worth bringing to your attention. I do have a >> market > buy order going in tomorrow morning, I figure that it will fill below > $1 and Lee will likely be over $3 at some point in the next 12 months > assuming the markets dont collapse (they could). >> This is useful in regards to understanding gold and Europe: >> http://seekingalpha.com/article/248333-inherent-flaws-in-the-gold-sta >> ndard >> >> Note that it is my opinion that there is a lot of systemic risk out >> there > at the present time. Prices on average seem high. China is printing > their worst PMI's in years and Q3 USA earnings are dropping like I > expected and US banks are cheating on their earnings reports. >> >> Overall, I think that things are overvalued, but that doesn't mean >> that > they will go down. The most interesting aspect of all of this appears > to be a large currency war whereby the "winners" tend to hold their > currencies below the losers and thus experience the miracle of "economic growth" >> >> Also note that the last time I looked at my peak oil hypothesis I was > figuring around Q1 2012 as to when I thought we'd see the next oil > shock, new all time higher prices might be in store sometime next > year, but obviously I don't know too much about that either. >> >> Lastly, I'll close with the definition of an investment: Finance > investment is putting money into something with the expectation of > gain, that upon thorough analysis, has a high degree of security for > the principal amount, as well as security of return, within an expected period of time. >> >> If you like LEE, the other similar company that I like is DEXO. Other >> than > that, I still like GOOG and I'm a fan of formula investing through > Joel Greenblatt. >> >> Also, feel free to unsubscribe from this list if you think my advice >> not > only historically is terrible but also on a forward basis will > continue to be terrible. That is to say: I have not learned nor am capable of learning. >> >> Glen
