My thoughts:
We need a bottom in the housing market, and in order to get one, US interest rates must remain low until inflation and foreign investment put a bottom into this market. Inflation will scare away foreign investors, but will help US home owners. Loans being restructured at lower interest rates will help too --- but idiots will restructure with variable interest rates and get squeezed out later down the road or possibly walk if their home is worth less than their mortgage (underwater). This will potentially dry up market liquidity and hurt banks and insurers and all that jazz as well as kill global GDP in the short term. Now that that's how I feel, let's see how the market reacts and react accordingly. China is still the best bet. Commodities already reflect these inflationary tendencies.
“‘Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted.’” - Albert Einstein
I wrote all of this the weekend of Sunday, June 7, 2009. I am not publishing it that weekend, but instead possibly mid-week or even later depending on how long it takes me to buy positions in some of the companies below. If you are reading this, it is public. Good luck.
llfh - my current lowball target is 71% price appreciation (and my estimates have a unreasonably strong tendancy to be conservative)
slm - will likely outperform the S&P500 by 100% over the next 12 months (if that's what you're interested in... i'm not, but I still may buy some)
canl - pricey but going to the nasdaq and selling around book value "A conversion to a Nasdaq listing can be completed as early as this summer," Guo said. "We will issue $70 million worth of new shares at that time." - i'm not interested in being diluted. that's like 50% dilution.
ccgy - opportunity knocks only for those who listen. buying opportunity of a lifetime? hint hint, nudge, nudge. I am buying.
wemu - It could triple. They say they have a lot in the pipeline. They say they are moving into the USA and PRC markets. They say they have a monster backlog.Although this would be operating on "he said, she said, the company said" --- the growth they are talking about is over 100%. This company isn't selling less than book value or significantly off its 52-week high. It isn't "cheap" to me. But, I feel that it is cheap to most.In the land of investing, it doesn't matter what the company is actually worth. What matters is how much people are willing to pay for it. Solar right now is hot, and this company is getting listed.They are profitable and have an optimistic outlook. I plan on picking some up casually, but nothing extravagant.
yuii - you will likely make money and beat the market, but i'm not excited about this one
chcg - like it, and this will go up and outperform the market. +300% in the next 3 years is 90% probable
abwtq - abh - haha.. no way
jgbo - an easy double before it gets listed
myst - weak cash flows and i can get better p/s ratios elsewhere. i don't think this is large enough to uplist. but it's definately worth more. cloud computing is an extreme thing. not mediocristian.
siaf - don't mess with pinks
feed - i'd rate around market perform, but it will likely beat the market.
ntes - too expensive, go with sohu instead
hrbn - probable valuation: $18.60
sina - worth more, but too expensive. Sell around a P/E of 40, or around $50 in the next 6 months if it gets there
ltus - love it.
cbak - not interested
cphi - i support this one. lots of upside
txic - looks very interesting, p/E around 4, so upside of around 200% fairly easily. the asian car market is very strong right now
acas - one of my turnaround plays
gls - this is the best airline stock i've found. profitable, i like this one. strong dividend, could shoot 200%.
gnk - my P/E = 4.6, at book value, should be an easy double
cno - like this one a lot.
--------------Note from a fellow Blogger
You should really read some of the articles on www.blogtoamillion.com about CNO.
I have followed your picks a lot, and this stock is one of my favorites - among
ACAS, GLS, and GNK. With 13 cents of Q1 earnings x 4 = 52 cents, or a PE ratio of 5.
..not sure about their insurance reserves (mortgage backed securities, treasuries,
corporate bonds), but they did have writedowns to protect themselves. The upside
here is $10-$15/shr, IMO, but just some disclosure: I am long CNO...
---------------------End Note
Earn a living or earn a fortune. I want to be rich. How do I plan on doing it?
Definitions:
OPM - Other People's Money
OPT - Other People's Time
IQ - My intelligence
I intend to promote my IQ to control OPM to own OPT.
Since I'm lazy, I would rather not reinvent the wheel here. In fact, I don't really want to manage other people or tell them what to do. I'll just stick to evaluating the performance of other people who like to work hard and buy stakes in their hard work when the stakes are cheaper than they should be and capture the value over time.
Now, I'm not claiming to have the best ability to value every company in the world. But, I figure if I focus on not owning anything that seems risky and only recommend the best deals I can find --- that puts me ahead of Wall Street.
We need a bottom in the housing market, and in order to get one, US interest rates must remain low until inflation and foreign investment put a bottom into this market. Inflation will scare away foreign investors, but will help US home owners. Loans being restructured at lower interest rates will help too --- but idiots will restructure with variable interest rates and get squeezed out later down the road or possibly walk if their home is worth less than their mortgage (underwater). This will potentially dry up market liquidity and hurt banks and insurers and all that jazz as well as kill global GDP in the short term. Now that that's how I feel, let's see how the market reacts and react accordingly. China is still the best bet. Commodities already reflect these inflationary tendencies.
“‘Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted.’” - Albert Einstein
I wrote all of this the weekend of Sunday, June 7, 2009. I am not publishing it that weekend, but instead possibly mid-week or even later depending on how long it takes me to buy positions in some of the companies below. If you are reading this, it is public. Good luck.
llfh - my current lowball target is 71% price appreciation (and my estimates have a unreasonably strong tendancy to be conservative)
slm - will likely outperform the S&P500 by 100% over the next 12 months (if that's what you're interested in... i'm not, but I still may buy some)
canl - pricey but going to the nasdaq and selling around book value "A conversion to a Nasdaq listing can be completed as early as this summer," Guo said. "We will issue $70 million worth of new shares at that time." - i'm not interested in being diluted. that's like 50% dilution.
ccgy - opportunity knocks only for those who listen. buying opportunity of a lifetime? hint hint, nudge, nudge. I am buying.
wemu - It could triple. They say they have a lot in the pipeline. They say they are moving into the USA and PRC markets. They say they have a monster backlog.Although this would be operating on "he said, she said, the company said" --- the growth they are talking about is over 100%. This company isn't selling less than book value or significantly off its 52-week high. It isn't "cheap" to me. But, I feel that it is cheap to most.In the land of investing, it doesn't matter what the company is actually worth. What matters is how much people are willing to pay for it. Solar right now is hot, and this company is getting listed.They are profitable and have an optimistic outlook. I plan on picking some up casually, but nothing extravagant.
yuii - you will likely make money and beat the market, but i'm not excited about this one
chcg - like it, and this will go up and outperform the market. +300% in the next 3 years is 90% probable
abwtq - abh - haha.. no way
jgbo - an easy double before it gets listed
myst - weak cash flows and i can get better p/s ratios elsewhere. i don't think this is large enough to uplist. but it's definately worth more. cloud computing is an extreme thing. not mediocristian.
siaf - don't mess with pinks
feed - i'd rate around market perform, but it will likely beat the market.
ntes - too expensive, go with sohu instead
hrbn - probable valuation: $18.60
sina - worth more, but too expensive. Sell around a P/E of 40, or around $50 in the next 6 months if it gets there
ltus - love it.
cbak - not interested
cphi - i support this one. lots of upside
txic - looks very interesting, p/E around 4, so upside of around 200% fairly easily. the asian car market is very strong right now
acas - one of my turnaround plays
gls - this is the best airline stock i've found. profitable, i like this one. strong dividend, could shoot 200%.
gnk - my P/E = 4.6, at book value, should be an easy double
cno - like this one a lot.
--------------Note from a fellow Blogger
You should really read some of the articles on www.blogtoamillion.com about CNO.
I have followed your picks a lot, and this stock is one of my favorites - among
ACAS, GLS, and GNK. With 13 cents of Q1 earnings x 4 = 52 cents, or a PE ratio of 5.
..not sure about their insurance reserves (mortgage backed securities, treasuries,
corporate bonds), but they did have writedowns to protect themselves. The upside
here is $10-$15/shr, IMO, but just some disclosure: I am long CNO...
---------------------End Note
Earn a living or earn a fortune. I want to be rich. How do I plan on doing it?
Definitions:
OPM - Other People's Money
OPT - Other People's Time
IQ - My intelligence
I intend to promote my IQ to control OPM to own OPT.
Since I'm lazy, I would rather not reinvent the wheel here. In fact, I don't really want to manage other people or tell them what to do. I'll just stick to evaluating the performance of other people who like to work hard and buy stakes in their hard work when the stakes are cheaper than they should be and capture the value over time.
Now, I'm not claiming to have the best ability to value every company in the world. But, I figure if I focus on not owning anything that seems risky and only recommend the best deals I can find --- that puts me ahead of Wall Street.
Labels: canl, ccgy, cphi, gls, gnk, LTUS, sina, slm, txic, wemu
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