Glen Doth Know

gmcr, cbou, ddrx --- i dunno. i had a list somewhere of the overpriced coffee stocks. i'm just saying like in Disney's movie Jungle 2 Jungle. Get out of Coffee.
cphi - still like it
chbp - scared, not always profitable
skbi/skbo - will look again later during when the market is open so i can look at the bid/ask. this thing is thinly traded and might be good.
hlf - not cheap enough for me to buy right now, but will likely outperform the market in the next 2 years, revenues sucked last 2 quarters
utvl - this thing is going to the NYSE. Tom suggested that there are more shares than google says there are out there, dont have time to check. mcconnel (purdue professor) suggested 5% appreciation on average before listing and 5% decline in price for 6 months post listing on NYSE.
pcap - like it
acas - like it
mcgc - like it
gnw - like it
cno - like it
ahr - like it
grvy - seems poorly managed. no increase in revenues and yet increased expenses.
gfre - guidance includes dilution, i'm scared!
jadae - most of its income is from its discontinued operations in 2008
sclx - following up with company, added to my sorting list.
utvl - huge growth potential, will it be exercised? i'll buy some
chcg - topside catalyst: franchise strategy, downside force: decreasing profit margins, i'll buy some - i sold at around $1.50 to buy other deals.
gtls - prolly will appreciate in price over the next 2 years. just not enough for me to mention
snen - blah, just don't know. what happens when this loss goes away? is the business growing? you'd think so... but there isn't a very clear trend to me. negative cash from operations lately. lets wait and see .. throw this with nwd

i need to look at
bucy, cedc, midd, and my old stocks again to dump some money into for an investor that wants a safer play.

Now --- for some emails:

First, a picture: I picked the bottom on this one. Luck or skill --- your choice.



So, what do we do now? It’s got a P/E of about 10, maybe a little higher than that. You are getting a 6.4% dividend here. The trailing 12 month P/E is 14.

Historically trades between $60-$70. Was as high as $50 recently.

You’re looking at 1 year upside potential of about 75% (maybe going higher than where they traded historically cause they picked up National City). I think we could very easily sell out of this around $50 here shortly --- or you could just bail now and try to ride something else with more upside.
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T --- I didn’t bet on this one. I don’t know whether it will outperform or underperform. If you don’t know, don’t bet.

You bought it at $20, which baffles me because its 52-week low was $20.90 according to Google. So, you got the bottom, luck or skill.

There’s a double bottom on this one in October and March around $21. They just increased their dividend in Q1 2009. Their dividend is sustainable and pays 6.9%. There was some huge acquisition or something at the beginning of 2007 that exploded revenues. I think from mid 2007 to mid 2008, this was overpriced because of this abnormal growth.

I’d be getting out at $30. I might even be willing to jump ship at $25 depending on if there is something else out there that’s better.

I just downloaded all the larger companies I was looking at this fall. Out of the batch of them, there are probably over half that are still improving as if there wasn’t a crisis, but are priced now as if the crisis is supposed to hurt business.

I’ll be sorting through them here shortly and if I think I can choose 2-3 of the best to replace PNC, that’s what I’ll do.
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UTVL-Good call on the details. It is incredibly undervalued compared to its competitors. It just got listed on NYSE amex. There is some dilution.

Their SSD segment is losing sales fast. I don't know if that's due to cannibalization or what. Other segments are growing well. This last quarter they did not grow rev or earnings, but I think that's probably due to seasonality and the worst of the recession.

I'll probably invest a little and see what new things develop.

Tom
On Sun, May 24, 2009 at 10:02 AM, Bradford, Glen Richard wrote:
I think you are wrong here.

There were about 41M shares outstanding according to their 10K.

Then they reverse split on march 31, 2009. http://www.pinksheets.com/edgar/GetFilingHtml?FilingID=6513635

I think google’s share count is right.

What are your thoughts?

Glen

From: tcorm [mailto:tcorso] On Behalf Of Tom Corson-Knowles
Sent: Saturday, May 23, 2009 1:04 PM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: UTVL

Hey,

UTVL has the wrong market cap shown on google finance. There are 38M share outstanding, so the real book value is almost $230 M. With $18M expected income for 2009, before dilution, that P/E seems high at over 20.

Tom
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The price goes up about 5% on the announcement and transition weeks, then trails off 5% over the next 6 weeks

________________________________________
From: Bradford, Glen Richard
Sent: Sun 5/24/2009 10:09 AM
To: McConnell, John J
Subject: OTCBB to NYSE Stock
Hey John,

First, I’d like to thank you for passing me in Finance the 3rd module this year. Second, I want your opinion on the average stock price changes on a company that goes from OTCBB to the NYSE.
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Hi Glen,

if you like ACAS, you'll love PCAP.

PCAP is in the same business, but has far fewer bad loans and a lower price/book, P/E and debt/equity.
They have violated bank covenants also, but only barely and recently.

Debt/equity is .96 vs 1.58 at ACAS, P/E (2010) 2.3 vs 4.2, price/book .22 vs .26

Slightly more expensive, but not much, is MCGC, which is in compliance with all covenants and will resume dividends earlier than the other two.

Among the chinese stocks, OPAI.OB is still trading at a P/E of 2, and half of book despite 30% growth.

I enjoy your articles very much. They are the best of all on SA, and I made a lot of money thanks to you.

Regards,

Fred

Labels: ahr, CHCG, CNO, GNW, mcgc, OPAI, pcap, sclx, snen, utvl

Anthracite Capital is Reinflating
By
Glen Bradford
Instead of talking about finance institutions that are being diluted like Citigroup (C) and financial institutions that are so hot they’re already above their November lows like Wells Fargo (WFC) and Goldman Sachs (GS), I’m going to introduce you to a better place where it’s bottoms up from here.
After getting the wind knocked out of it, Anthracite Capital shows signs of life. Granted that the price has probably exploded higher from $0.74 by the time this article gets published, let us use it at a baseline. What do we know about Anthracite at $0.74?
1. Anthracite is trading at a P/E of 0.487 if you knock out the Q4 2008 earnings nightmare and look back 1 year from Q3. The reason I took out Q4 is because the loss claimed appears to be a one-time huge write off, followed by positive earnings the next quarter.
2. Anthracite Capital is trading at a book value of 0.1.
3. Anthracite Capital is traded on the New York Stock Exchange. Let me repeat. This is a company cheaper than the listing requirements on the New York Stock Exchange. It either increases in price or eventually gets delisted.
All of these figures indicate that Anthracite is priced for bankruptcy. Where’s the good news?
1. They have pushed back the disaster twice already and have been in talks to resolve the issue. If I know anything about creditors, the last thing they want to do is run their debtors into the ground.
2. Anthracite was profitable in Q1 2009, just not as profitable as it used to be. If you optimistically flat line the profit figures from Q1 2009 into the future, your P/E is still 0.685. Note that Q1 of 2008’s Net Income Applicable to Common Shareholders is twice as large of that of any quarter as far back as I can see. So, comparing Q1 2009 to Q1 2008 isn’t fair to begin with. The bottom line here is that comparing the income of Q1 2009 to Anthracite’s history --- things match up but the revenues are weaker.
So, what am I doing about it? I’m buying. I probably already have a sizeable position. I’d say you could add this to my suggestions for 100% in 1 month, but that would be an understatement. I’d be surprised if AHR didn’t see $2 by June 18th.
Disclosure: Glen and his investors own AHR.


Title ideas: China: Harder, Better, Faster, Smaller
China: Go Small Or Go Home
By
Glen Bradford
Cramer’s a buyer of Bucyrus. I’ve been a fan of Bucyrus since I came across it in late August 2008. Back then, I grabbed the coattails of the top of the roller coaster and rode it down from $67 to $62. If I liked it then, imagine how much I like it now at $23, on its way back up. Up over 100% from its low, why is this growing company trading so cheaply with a P/E of 6.86? I’ve got one idea. Opportunity cost. If you want to play china the right way right now, you have to start small and work your way up to see the big picture.
Bucyrus makes the mining equipment. Let’s take a look at some folks that may use this kind of equipment and are trading at a discount to Bucyrus. To set the stage, Bucyrus has a P/E of 6.8 and is selling at 1.7x Book Value. Let’s look at some undervalued Oil and Coal ideas that are all less than half as expensive as Bucyrus with respect to both metrics.
1. Puda Coal (PUDC) is being featured at the China Rising Investment Conference today and is set to run from 10:00-10:30am. Puda Coal is a supplier of metallurgical coking coal to the industrial sector in the PRC. They are currently in the process of vertically integrating their supply chain. Goldman Sachs just upgraded the entire coal industry. The reason for upgrading the industry is mostly due to China. Looking at these numbers, I’m going to agree with Goldman.
2. Longwei Petroleum Investment Holdings (LPIH) is one of the leading diesel, gasoline, fuel oil and solvent oil distributors/wholesalers in Taiyuan City, Shanxi Province, P.R. China. Do note that they’re expansion is being financed through their working capital. Bank loans in China have been unbearably tough to get this last year --- so this is a strong point.
3. China North East Petroleum (CNEH) is engaged in the exploration and production of crude oil in Northern China. They just signed a contract to drill another 48 wells in the next 10 months, taking their total to 303 after the project is completed. Crunch the numbers and that’s 18% growth in production in 10 months.
4. Now, I would outline the advantages of China Energy (CHGY), but I did that 2 weeks ago. Instead I’ll give you a bonus pick that’s American. Crimson Exploration (CXPO) is even less than half of half as expensive by both metrics as Bucyrus. They are an independent natural gas and crude oil company engaged primarily in the United States, Gulf Coast and South Texas regions.
Now, I’m not telling you that you’re not likely to make a lot of money on Bucyrus right now. What I’m saying is that if you have two opportunities, and one of them is more likely to return more money than the other --- it would make sense to buy into the one with better returns, right? That said, Bucyrus in my opinion is definitely worth more in the long run. It’s trading less than its backlog and that’s pretty much sinful.
Disclaimer: Glen and his investors own LPIH, PUDC, CNEH, CHGY, CXPO.

Labels: ahr, C, CHGY, CNEH, cxpo, lpih, PUDC