Glen Doth Know

Tom,

I’m dumping XIN ASAP. I’m finding other opportunities that are significantly better. XIN is still a great company and will probably appreciate in price…

But, like most of my articles indicate: I will always drop a great deal if I find a better one. Right now, you can find growing companies with P/E < 2. That’s huge.

Just be glad you’re investing in china. It’s set to do significantly better than the US markets. The shanghai is already up about 27% so far this year, not to mention that it’s up more than that from its bottom.

I don’t plan on writing articles on the absolutely unbelievable deals I’m finding. I plan on putting them on my blog and trying to pick up a few more individual investors. When I feel that I’m personally invested enough, that’s when I’m going to take my ideas public again. I see no reason to tell other people about hidden gold when I am not set to profit from it.

Glen

From: Tom Anth [mailto:qbeagle
Sent: Saturday, February 14, 2009 3:26 PM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: Re: KHD

Thanks for getting back to me, Glen - I do appreciate it. My one concern with KHD was their ability to grow, but throw in the China stimulus and their cash on hand and I thought it deserved more research.

I've read through your blog and completely agree on XIN, I picked up some shares back when it was below 2 bucks. I don't know much about GHII, but will definitely do some more digging on it.

Thanks again, Glen

Tom


On Fri, Feb 13, 2009 at 8:39 PM, Bradford, Glen Richard gbradf wrote:
Tom,

I was looking through their investor presentation. It looks like KHD may be cheap for a reason. The industry appears to be cyclical.

I think that there is probably more downside. That's my best guess. I would rather bet on companies that are going to grow in these hard times and are equally cheap.

Glen

Labels: KHD, XIN

Looks to me like the market bottomed.

PE was roughly 7. We've had lots of ridiculous stimulus.

I haven't looked at the russian market, but it will bottom when oil bottoms.

Labels: AOB, BUCY, EJ, GHII, MTW, SOHU, XIN

China to launch $586B stimulus plan

My companies that should sky-rocket:

GHII
XIN
EJ

Labels: EJ, GHII, XIN

XIN announced a $10 Million share repurchase. Investors get to vote December 4th

The first proxy enables the buyback
the second proxy ammends their statements to include the buyback
and the third proxy does their auditing stuff.

If this passes, this buyback is currently equivalent to 18x the daily share volume and about 1/10 of all shares outstanding.

Their cash position is strong and this buyback makes sense. I expect doubling. That said, Russian and Chinese and Brazil securities are all over the place. Get ready.

Labels: XIN

M,

You’re correct. But, to be honest, that doesn’t matter much. It’s cool, but look at the liabilities. The liabilities are 4x their cash. Sales figures for properties in china are really bleak right now. SELLL SELL SELL! Is what they’re saying. Mean’s a great buying opportunity for those who think that there will continue to be some level of construction in china over the next 5 years. The downside to XIN is that it does high turnover. The upside is that it operates in Tier II.

The way I figure, if you write off all their property under development down by 50% (worst case scenario) about 300, and add cash about 160,

You’ve got assets backing liabilities still. Doesn’t seem nearly as risky as it’s priced. I’m not selling my shares, but I’m not buying more. It’s in my top 4 positions, which is good enough for me. (I probably should be buying more and would be if I wasn’t playing with college money.)

Glen

From: sagges
Sent: Thursday, October 09, 2008 10:53 AM
To: gbradfo
Subject: XIN

Glenn,

Still hanging in with XIN?

Unless I am reading the balance sheet incorrectly their cash position is twice their market value.

I understand the total instability of the world markets but this looks like a ridiculous opportunity.


M

Labels: XIN