Glen Doth Know

Tommy,

Glad someone looks through my notes. I just added this to my to-do list --- which is currently 7 companies long.

My dad ran a business called ARM Computing for 15 years. I am just carrying on the legacy.

A couple things:

1. Your notes reflect that you dig deep enough and that you have a sense of what you are looking for. That's a plus.
2. If I had any advice, or a cautionary statement --- make sure you never get caught up in 1 company and try to continue to prove that it is a good value. Always be nimble and always be comparing that which you are invested in to that which you could be invested in. If you like another opportunity better. Switch.

A couple similar companies off the top of my head that you might be interested in/familiar with

oil
Cneh, lpih, I think snen too. (snen is not a buy for me, but it's interesting)

Coal:

Sclx, chgy, pudc

Anyway, I'm sure there are more. The bottom line: Find the best way to allocate your money so that you are the most confident that you will not lose. I can't emphasize that enough. By doing that, with that mindset, you should do fine. The trick is figuring out what not to own instead of wasting lots of time evaluating 1 single potential opportunity. I call this relative valuation.

Maybe I have no idea what I'm talking about, but empirical evidence suggests otherwise,

Glen

-----Original Message-----
From: Tommy Gallagher [mailto:thomasmgal
Sent: Monday, June 01, 2009 9:51 PM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: Re: CCGY

Hey Glen - congrats on getting the hedge fund started up. I wish you
luck. Does the ARM name have any significance? How'd you come up with
it?

A stock I came across tonight is CCGY - China Clean energy. Looks
like it may have bottomed in early March at .10 cents. With the
increase in diesel margins today of 8% and their new facility coming
online in September - this may be decent bargain. Their earnings
weren't impressive for last year or the first quarter. I didn't see
this in any of your round robins and was wondering if you've looked
into this stock at all. At 20 cents its pretty inviting. they were
initially on the docket to present at the china rising conference, but
they didn't. I'm not sure why Glass half empty - i should stay away,
there is a bad reason why they didn't present, couldnt get their act
together, were disinvited etc...glass half full - too much going on
with the economy, not enough time, another, some other benign reason
and now not everybody knows about this stock yet since it didn't
present and its an opportunity.

looks like it is getting some notice with 175k volume today.

Below is the link to the china conference website showing they were
originally scheduled to present and a piece of their quarter
filing...let me know what you think.

Thanks,

Tommy


http://www.chinarisingconference.com/news/news20090416.html

Labels: ccgy, CHGY, CNEH, lpih, PUDC, sclx

Anthracite Capital is Reinflating
By
Glen Bradford
Instead of talking about finance institutions that are being diluted like Citigroup (C) and financial institutions that are so hot they’re already above their November lows like Wells Fargo (WFC) and Goldman Sachs (GS), I’m going to introduce you to a better place where it’s bottoms up from here.
After getting the wind knocked out of it, Anthracite Capital shows signs of life. Granted that the price has probably exploded higher from $0.74 by the time this article gets published, let us use it at a baseline. What do we know about Anthracite at $0.74?
1. Anthracite is trading at a P/E of 0.487 if you knock out the Q4 2008 earnings nightmare and look back 1 year from Q3. The reason I took out Q4 is because the loss claimed appears to be a one-time huge write off, followed by positive earnings the next quarter.
2. Anthracite Capital is trading at a book value of 0.1.
3. Anthracite Capital is traded on the New York Stock Exchange. Let me repeat. This is a company cheaper than the listing requirements on the New York Stock Exchange. It either increases in price or eventually gets delisted.
All of these figures indicate that Anthracite is priced for bankruptcy. Where’s the good news?
1. They have pushed back the disaster twice already and have been in talks to resolve the issue. If I know anything about creditors, the last thing they want to do is run their debtors into the ground.
2. Anthracite was profitable in Q1 2009, just not as profitable as it used to be. If you optimistically flat line the profit figures from Q1 2009 into the future, your P/E is still 0.685. Note that Q1 of 2008’s Net Income Applicable to Common Shareholders is twice as large of that of any quarter as far back as I can see. So, comparing Q1 2009 to Q1 2008 isn’t fair to begin with. The bottom line here is that comparing the income of Q1 2009 to Anthracite’s history --- things match up but the revenues are weaker.
So, what am I doing about it? I’m buying. I probably already have a sizeable position. I’d say you could add this to my suggestions for 100% in 1 month, but that would be an understatement. I’d be surprised if AHR didn’t see $2 by June 18th.
Disclosure: Glen and his investors own AHR.


Title ideas: China: Harder, Better, Faster, Smaller
China: Go Small Or Go Home
By
Glen Bradford
Cramer’s a buyer of Bucyrus. I’ve been a fan of Bucyrus since I came across it in late August 2008. Back then, I grabbed the coattails of the top of the roller coaster and rode it down from $67 to $62. If I liked it then, imagine how much I like it now at $23, on its way back up. Up over 100% from its low, why is this growing company trading so cheaply with a P/E of 6.86? I’ve got one idea. Opportunity cost. If you want to play china the right way right now, you have to start small and work your way up to see the big picture.
Bucyrus makes the mining equipment. Let’s take a look at some folks that may use this kind of equipment and are trading at a discount to Bucyrus. To set the stage, Bucyrus has a P/E of 6.8 and is selling at 1.7x Book Value. Let’s look at some undervalued Oil and Coal ideas that are all less than half as expensive as Bucyrus with respect to both metrics.
1. Puda Coal (PUDC) is being featured at the China Rising Investment Conference today and is set to run from 10:00-10:30am. Puda Coal is a supplier of metallurgical coking coal to the industrial sector in the PRC. They are currently in the process of vertically integrating their supply chain. Goldman Sachs just upgraded the entire coal industry. The reason for upgrading the industry is mostly due to China. Looking at these numbers, I’m going to agree with Goldman.
2. Longwei Petroleum Investment Holdings (LPIH) is one of the leading diesel, gasoline, fuel oil and solvent oil distributors/wholesalers in Taiyuan City, Shanxi Province, P.R. China. Do note that they’re expansion is being financed through their working capital. Bank loans in China have been unbearably tough to get this last year --- so this is a strong point.
3. China North East Petroleum (CNEH) is engaged in the exploration and production of crude oil in Northern China. They just signed a contract to drill another 48 wells in the next 10 months, taking their total to 303 after the project is completed. Crunch the numbers and that’s 18% growth in production in 10 months.
4. Now, I would outline the advantages of China Energy (CHGY), but I did that 2 weeks ago. Instead I’ll give you a bonus pick that’s American. Crimson Exploration (CXPO) is even less than half of half as expensive by both metrics as Bucyrus. They are an independent natural gas and crude oil company engaged primarily in the United States, Gulf Coast and South Texas regions.
Now, I’m not telling you that you’re not likely to make a lot of money on Bucyrus right now. What I’m saying is that if you have two opportunities, and one of them is more likely to return more money than the other --- it would make sense to buy into the one with better returns, right? That said, Bucyrus in my opinion is definitely worth more in the long run. It’s trading less than its backlog and that’s pretty much sinful.
Disclaimer: Glen and his investors own LPIH, PUDC, CNEH, CHGY, CXPO.

Labels: ahr, C, CHGY, CNEH, cxpo, lpih, PUDC

All I have to say is... wow! To be honest, I'm never to sure about what's going to happen. But, if it looks stormy outside or your grandfather's knees start hurting (a signal of lower pressure, and for you non-geologists/weather familiar people that means that you're likely close to a storm front. See, high pressure zones run clear skies usually.). Where was I going with this? If you have an undervalued company... If you have a GlenBradford.com undervalued company and price action is starting to take effect, get ready. My companies these days are undervalued by around 700% on average.

No, as my roomate Mazen would put it --- I am not blowing smoke into your a$$hole. They teach us discounted cash flows in MBA school and then they tell us to forget about using them to make stock market investment decisions. The lense I like to look through is the following. Imagine I am a corporate officer of my own company GlenBradford. Now Imagine that I have several projects all with fairly predictable future cash streams attached to them. Wouldn't it make sense to put down the least amount of money possible to get the most back?

Anyway, Below is my radar and a couple stocks you should watch immediately: GHII, ACAS, CHFI, PUDC. They are catching interest.

Labels: ACAS, CHFI, GHII, PUDC