POTash
I was asked this weekend to look into POT, Potash Corporation. I ran my analysis incredibly conservatively and simply assumed that the entire last year's incomes were unjustified. Based on incomes last year, the company is priced to grow at 14.8%. Over the last 9 years (excluding the last year), you've got a growth rate of about 18%, most of which is in the latter part. I think this was a cyclical boom. I think the company is still overpriced. Using my lazy calculations, $40 is where I'd become a buyer. But, maybe there is something to this last year of absolutely ridiculously overpriced everything. I'm waiting till the 4Q's come out before I guide any higher.
Labels: POT
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