Glen Doth Know

gmcr, cbou, ddrx --- i dunno. i had a list somewhere of the overpriced coffee stocks. i'm just saying like in Disney's movie Jungle 2 Jungle. Get out of Coffee.
cphi - still like it
chbp - scared, not always profitable
skbi/skbo - will look again later during when the market is open so i can look at the bid/ask. this thing is thinly traded and might be good.
hlf - not cheap enough for me to buy right now, but will likely outperform the market in the next 2 years, revenues sucked last 2 quarters
utvl - this thing is going to the NYSE. Tom suggested that there are more shares than google says there are out there, dont have time to check. mcconnel (purdue professor) suggested 5% appreciation on average before listing and 5% decline in price for 6 months post listing on NYSE.
pcap - like it
acas - like it
mcgc - like it
gnw - like it
cno - like it
ahr - like it
grvy - seems poorly managed. no increase in revenues and yet increased expenses.
gfre - guidance includes dilution, i'm scared!
jadae - most of its income is from its discontinued operations in 2008
sclx - following up with company, added to my sorting list.
utvl - huge growth potential, will it be exercised? i'll buy some
chcg - topside catalyst: franchise strategy, downside force: decreasing profit margins, i'll buy some - i sold at around $1.50 to buy other deals.
gtls - prolly will appreciate in price over the next 2 years. just not enough for me to mention
snen - blah, just don't know. what happens when this loss goes away? is the business growing? you'd think so... but there isn't a very clear trend to me. negative cash from operations lately. lets wait and see .. throw this with nwd

i need to look at
bucy, cedc, midd, and my old stocks again to dump some money into for an investor that wants a safer play.

Now --- for some emails:

First, a picture: I picked the bottom on this one. Luck or skill --- your choice.



So, what do we do now? It’s got a P/E of about 10, maybe a little higher than that. You are getting a 6.4% dividend here. The trailing 12 month P/E is 14.

Historically trades between $60-$70. Was as high as $50 recently.

You’re looking at 1 year upside potential of about 75% (maybe going higher than where they traded historically cause they picked up National City). I think we could very easily sell out of this around $50 here shortly --- or you could just bail now and try to ride something else with more upside.
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T --- I didn’t bet on this one. I don’t know whether it will outperform or underperform. If you don’t know, don’t bet.

You bought it at $20, which baffles me because its 52-week low was $20.90 according to Google. So, you got the bottom, luck or skill.

There’s a double bottom on this one in October and March around $21. They just increased their dividend in Q1 2009. Their dividend is sustainable and pays 6.9%. There was some huge acquisition or something at the beginning of 2007 that exploded revenues. I think from mid 2007 to mid 2008, this was overpriced because of this abnormal growth.

I’d be getting out at $30. I might even be willing to jump ship at $25 depending on if there is something else out there that’s better.

I just downloaded all the larger companies I was looking at this fall. Out of the batch of them, there are probably over half that are still improving as if there wasn’t a crisis, but are priced now as if the crisis is supposed to hurt business.

I’ll be sorting through them here shortly and if I think I can choose 2-3 of the best to replace PNC, that’s what I’ll do.
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UTVL-Good call on the details. It is incredibly undervalued compared to its competitors. It just got listed on NYSE amex. There is some dilution.

Their SSD segment is losing sales fast. I don't know if that's due to cannibalization or what. Other segments are growing well. This last quarter they did not grow rev or earnings, but I think that's probably due to seasonality and the worst of the recession.

I'll probably invest a little and see what new things develop.

Tom
On Sun, May 24, 2009 at 10:02 AM, Bradford, Glen Richard wrote:
I think you are wrong here.

There were about 41M shares outstanding according to their 10K.

Then they reverse split on march 31, 2009. http://www.pinksheets.com/edgar/GetFilingHtml?FilingID=6513635

I think google’s share count is right.

What are your thoughts?

Glen

From: tcorm [mailto:tcorso] On Behalf Of Tom Corson-Knowles
Sent: Saturday, May 23, 2009 1:04 PM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: UTVL

Hey,

UTVL has the wrong market cap shown on google finance. There are 38M share outstanding, so the real book value is almost $230 M. With $18M expected income for 2009, before dilution, that P/E seems high at over 20.

Tom
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The price goes up about 5% on the announcement and transition weeks, then trails off 5% over the next 6 weeks

________________________________________
From: Bradford, Glen Richard
Sent: Sun 5/24/2009 10:09 AM
To: McConnell, John J
Subject: OTCBB to NYSE Stock
Hey John,

First, I’d like to thank you for passing me in Finance the 3rd module this year. Second, I want your opinion on the average stock price changes on a company that goes from OTCBB to the NYSE.
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Hi Glen,

if you like ACAS, you'll love PCAP.

PCAP is in the same business, but has far fewer bad loans and a lower price/book, P/E and debt/equity.
They have violated bank covenants also, but only barely and recently.

Debt/equity is .96 vs 1.58 at ACAS, P/E (2010) 2.3 vs 4.2, price/book .22 vs .26

Slightly more expensive, but not much, is MCGC, which is in compliance with all covenants and will resume dividends earlier than the other two.

Among the chinese stocks, OPAI.OB is still trading at a P/E of 2, and half of book despite 30% growth.

I enjoy your articles very much. They are the best of all on SA, and I made a lot of money thanks to you.

Regards,

Fred

Labels: ahr, CHCG, CNO, GNW, mcgc, OPAI, pcap, sclx, snen, utvl

100% in 1 Month Financials
By
Glen Bradford

I think that if you’re a professional money manager and you don’t make 100% return in 1 year starting today --- you should look into other forms of employment.

Jim Cramer is right. I’m going to stand up and shoot for 100% in 1 month with a couple stocks. All of them are set for huge gains when the mutual funds grab them at $5.

Conseco (CNO) --- I’ve been yelling about this one since $0.33 when I backed up the truck. I came up with a 2009 EPS of $0.85 weeks before the analyst updated his estimate to include the restructure I forecasted. You too can ride this to $7 --- more than 100%.

Genworth Financial (GNW) --- They didn’t need the TARP. That’s a sign of strength. Just popped to $5. Next stop: $12. Get ahead of the curve and allocate your holdings where the money is heading next. Don’t wait!

American Capital (ACAS) --- I am anticipating a restructure of their current debt obligations. Note that this can bring back a huge yield if you sit tight. Odds are the restructure will eat out of short term (1-2 years) profit margins, but the stock price will soar. $8 is just around the corner.

I don’t respect people that recommend things that they themselves do not own. That’s why I’m long all the companies mentioned in this article. If you’re interested in banks, shoot the middle of the road and start with the ones that are down the most over the last 2 years and up the most over the last 2 months. That way you’ll pick up bargain banks that hopefully aren’t dead beats. A couple that I own are Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) and Huntington Bancshares (HBAN).

Disclosure: Glen and his investors own CNO, GNW, ACAS, FITB, HBAN

Glen Bradford
Purdue Industrial Engineer
Masters in Business Administration
www.glenbradford.com

Labels: ACAS, CNO, FITB, GNW, HBAN

Allow me to start off by illustrating my sentiment from January 2008 – February 2009: I hate banks and I have no idea what they are doing. I hate anything financially related.



But, I find myself not hating banks anymore. What happened? I’ve got 8 leading indicators that people might be aware of but aren’t catching headlines like they should be and I’ve got 4 monster catalysts. What do I know, I’m only the Motley Fool’s Hottest Player going into Easter Weekend. Further, My entire college tuition is riding on the stock market.



Leading Indicators:



1. Federal Funds Target Rate is nil. This means that banks can borrow as cheaply as they ever have been able to. When you borrow at these interest rates, the net present value of any opportunity where you can at least get your money back is a good one to be taking.
2. Banks as a sector cheap from a historical perspective. I wonder why? Fear, panic, disorder, lack of trust, lack of speculation --- just a few ideas.
3. There is tons of cash on the sidelines. Blood is in the streets. There has definitely been “the slaughtering of the speculator” over the past year and a half. I believe now is the time when the speculator finally gets congratulated.
4. We are up 28% off the bottom according to the S&P500.
5. Global Markets are leading the way. They are up 53.4% according to EEM [iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (ETF)].
6. My uncle who is a banker panicked and sold out of the market at Dow 6700.
7. Mark-to-market has been relaxed to ‘mark-to-whatever-makes-us-look-good.’ Aka: Mark-To-Profit.
8. The uptick rule might come back. In my opinion, this isn’t necessary at this point.



Monster Catalysts:
1. Citigroup and Bank of America said they were profitable in the first 2 months of 2009. Great! Now they can do whatever they want to their balance sheet with the relaxation of mark-to-market. What does that imply? How can you lose money when you get to put whatever you want on a balance sheet? Especially if you’re a bank and you thoroughly understand how to crunch numbers and make them look favorable, you’re going to be looking really good now. It’s the Enron dilemma of “mark-to-model.” I could come up with some great spreadsheet models that make me look like an undervalued opportunity.
2. It’s already happening! Wells-Fargo is coming in crushing analysts. Well, of course! What do you expect when you can borrow money to invest in opportunities and you’re not paying a significant interest rate on what you borrow?
3. Analysts are going to get caught with their pants down this week. Earnings are coming out. Tuesday: Goldman Sachs; Thursday: JPMorgan Chase; Friday: Citigroup. There is so much upside that they simply can’t see because they don’t really understand what’s going on. If they did, they wouldn’t be analysts. They’d be retired. What does this do? This sets up an opportunity for some huge price target upgrades, usually after the price actually appreciates to that target. Have you noticed that analyst price targets seem to be a lagging indicator of stock prices --- or is it just me?
4. Debt upgrades. Once Mark-To-Profit kicks into full swing, the ratings agencies have to think a little more highly of these poor banks.



How to play this one:



I like a couple insurance agencies in decreasing order: CNO, GNW, PNX. I think GNW didn’t need the TARP anyway. That’s a sign of strength. Am I the only one seeing this?



I like a couple bank plays, also in decreasing order: FAS, C, BAC. I’m not into the Wells-Fargo’s and the Goldman Sach’s or even JP Morgan’s of the world --- where is the upside there? 100%? Not enough.



Disclosure: Glen Bradford owns CNO, GNW, PNX, FAS, C, BAC and/or options on them in his and his investor’s accounts.

Labels: BAC, C, CNO, EEM, FAS, GNW, IYF, PNX

Allow me to start off by illustrating my sentiment from January 2008 – February 2009: I hate banks and I have no idea what they are doing. I hate anything financially related.



But, I find myself not hating banks anymore. What happened? I’ve got 8 leading indicators that people might be aware of but aren’t catching headlines like they should be and I’ve got 4 monster catalysts. What do I know, I’m only the Motley Fool’s Hottest Player going into Easter Weekend. Further, My entire college tuition is riding on the stock market.



Leading Indicators:



1. Federal Funds Target Rate is nil. This means that banks can borrow as cheaply as they ever have been able to. When you borrow at these interest rates, the net present value of any opportunity where you can at least get your money back is a good one to be taking.
2. Banks as a sector cheap from a historical perspective. I wonder why? Fear, panic, disorder, lack of trust, lack of speculation --- just a few ideas.
3. There is tons of cash on the sidelines. Blood is in the streets. There has definitely been “the slaughtering of the speculator” over the past year and a half. I believe now is the time when the speculator finally gets congratulated.
4. We are up 28% off the bottom according to the S&P500.
5. Global Markets are leading the way. They are up 53.4% according to EEM [iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (ETF)].
6. My uncle who is a banker panicked and sold out of the market at Dow 6700.
7. Mark-to-market has been relaxed to ‘mark-to-whatever-makes-us-look-good.’
8. The uptick rule might come back. In my opinion, this isn’t necessary at this point.



Monster Catalysts:
1. Citigroup and Bank of America said they were profitable in the first 2 months of 2009. Great! Now they can do whatever they want to their balance sheet with the relaxation of mark-to-market. What does that imply? How can you lose money when you get to put whatever you want on a balance sheet? Especially if you’re a bank and you thoroughly understand how to crunch numbers and make them look favorable, you’re going to be looking really good now. It’s the Enron dilemma of “mark-to-model.” I could come up with some great spreadsheet models that make me look like an undervalued opportunity.
2. It’s already happening! Wells-Fargo is coming in crushing analysts. Well, of course! What do you expect when you can borrow money to invest in opportunities and you’re not paying a significant interest rate on what you borrow?
3. Analysts are going to get caught with their pants down this week. Earnings are coming out. Tuesday: Goldman Sachs; Thursday: JPMorgan Chase; Friday: Citigroup. There is so much upside that they simply can’t see because they don’t really understand what’s going on. If they did, they wouldn’t be analysts. They’d be retired. What does this do? This sets up an opportunity for some huge price target upgrades, usually after the price actually appreciates to that target. Have you noticed that analyst price targets seem to be a lagging indicator of stock prices --- or is it just me?
4. Debt upgrades. Once ‘mark-to-whatever-makes-us-look-good’ kicks into gear, the ratings agencies have to think a little more highly of these poor banks.



How to play this one:



I like a couple insurance agencies in decreasing order: CNO, GNW, PNX. I think GNW didn’t need the TARP anyway. That’s a sign of strength. Am I the only one seeing this?



I like a couple bank plays, also in decreasing order: FAS, C, BAC. I’m not into the Wells-Fargo’s and the Goldman Sach’s or even JP Morgan’s of the world --- where is the upside there? 100%? Not enough.



Disclosure: Glen Bradford owns CNO, GNW, PNX, FAS, C, BAC and/or options on them in his and his investor’s accounts.

Labels: BAC, C, CNO, EEM, FAS, GNW, IYF, PNX

For those of you who passed simple math, 2+2=4

For those of you who understand a successful merger/acquisition, the goal is the combination of the two companies to yield more than their separate parts, essentially 2+2=5

Anyway, what you saw in Wells Fargo is going to happen over the next 5 weeks to the entire banking sector as well. If you cut the rate at which banks borrow to finance their loans, that increases their profit margin. Expect either a blockbuster quarter or a write off, but the blockbuster is more likely in my opinion.

Get ready to either be positioned in these stocks or miss the boat.

Tuesday: Goldman Sachs

Thursday: JPMorgan Chase

Friday: Citigroup reports

Where is the play? FAS. Further, I like Citigroup over JPM and GS, cause --- it has the most upside.

If I owned AIG, I'd sell out at $5 if it ever gets that high. The old CEO laughed at management's decisions since he left, go figure. Pass the blame.

If you're into insurance, GNW, PNX, and CNO are the ones I'm riding.

Labels: AIG, C, CNO, FAS, GNW, GS, JPM, PNX

Another Blog

A Chart

Q4 Earnings Transcript

A few quotes:

"As we noted on prior occasions, CPP participation by way of a thrift acquisition was only one of the strategic levers Genworth has considered to provide another level of capital flexibility to address unforeseen events, and the nature of that program has continued to evolve," said Michael D. Fraizer, Genworth chief executive officer. "Since Genworth's initial CPP application in November, we have made significant progress enhancing our capital levels and flexibility using various strategies including reinsurance, refinements in targeted markets, dividend reductions, risk mitigation and expense streamlining. Genworth will continue to benefit from these actions. In addition, we remain comfortable with our target of a consolidated life insurance company risk-based capital ratio of 350 percent or above for year end 2009. We ended 2008 with about $2.0 billion of capital across Genworth in excess of levels required for targeted ratings or regulatory requirements. We continue to progress in our evaluation of additional strategic opportunities ranging from selected asset sales to other governmental programs that could provide additional financial flexibility, and we will pursue these where we believe it makes sense."

Genworth will report first quarter operating results in early May and will provide additional comments as appropriate at that time.

In a related development, Genworth Financial Inc. (GNW) has decided not to participate in the TARP program, saying that its efforts to improve its financial position are working. The Journal notes that the company had few other options.

"Treasury officials told life insurers in late 2008 they could be eligible for federal assistance if they owned bank-holding companies," according to the Journal. "However, Genworth said it was informed by Treasury on Thursday that the deadline it set for approval by the Office of Thrift Supervision to become a bank-holding company wouldn't be extended."

Currently a $1.19B company with a stock price of $2.75
Looks to me like a survival PE of about 1
Also looks to me like 1/9 of Revenues
Also 0.1334 of Book value

Quick Glance, I think we have a surviver!

Now, granted, this thing isn't growing like CNO, but I'll take it! I don't think that GNW really needed this TARP money. I think it's going home and sitting on a huge quarterly earnings surprise like it's a golden egg. Odds are that if a company really needs something to survive, it's a high priority and GNW would have clawed tooth and nail to get that "oh help me, i'm drowning" TARP bailout status.

Labels: GNW