Glen Doth Know" /> Glen Doth Know" />

Thursday, April 30, 2009 

My Dad's Perspective

By Mark Bradford

I am just about an easy-going guy as you can meet.

Sure I get excited when I am in charge of something or other similar times, but for the most part I’ll just move over or stay out of the way when people try to use their perceived power on me because, quite honestly, life is too short to bother with the small stuff.

I have always believed most of what people told me anyway. My dad said “Save your money, son” and so I did. My mom said “Eat your vegetables” and so I did. My professor told me”Invest $250/month in the stock market and you will be a millionaire at the end of 40 years because the stock market returns about 9 percent annually, give or take.” So I did.

In fact, my wife and I invested $500 every month, through thick and thin and sending three kids to college. Like the rest of us, we watched as our life savings seemingly disappeared this past winter, even though they were placed in "safe" mutual funds. Being the easy-going guy that I am, I just shrugged and said, “Give it time, it will come back.”

So I did. That was OK until I watched a 60 Minutes episode in which they detailed how all the mutual fund managers were getting rich despite the bad economy. All of it was and still is perfectly legal, of course. They were still charging 3-5 percent management fees despite incurring huge losses through blatant mismanagement of MY money.

MY money. I have a son who is a budding investment guru. His “practice” portfolio (which included $50,000 of our family money) took a dive this past winter, too. But his losses were approximately equal to or less than my “professionally managed” funds. So, a college kid still wet behind the ears was able to think just like “seasoned pros” who supposedly have my best interests at heart.

My ass, they do. It suddenly occurred to me that every does time I was paying 3-5 percent fee just to dump money into their fund, I was losing money and they were taking (not making) it. They were the ones living the high life and vacationing in Hawaii while I spent two months trying to figure out how to pay an unexpectedly high tax bill.

Then it occurred to me that I didn’t HAVE to let these overpriced underachievers invest my money for me. If I was going to lose an automatic 3-5 percent upfront, I wanted to do it myself. I already had my Internet brokerage account and access to CNBC (my guess is the fund managers are drinking lattes and not watching Squawk Box in the morning). I am able to track the market on my own and, in fact bought the financials at historic lows and have a selling strategy in place.

And I don’t charge myself 3-5 percent. So, I called my IRA mutual fund holder and told them to get me out and send the cash to my discount broker. I filled out all their indecipherable forms and am now waiting for the cash to hit my Internet account. In fact, I have been waiting two weeks for these highly paid mutual fund managers to write a check and get it done. Great service.

When that happens, I will work with my son to choose the most effective accounts for long term growth and stability. I will have my ups and downs and I will make mistakes. But I can pretty much guarantee that if anyone gets a chance to live in the Hamptons on my 3-5 percent this time, it will be me.

When I was in high school in the 1960’s it was a popular phrase to say “Stick it to the man.” Little did I know “the man” would be disguised as some greedy mutual fund manager and that he would bleed me slowly and make me like it.

My change of heart is just my way of sticking him. And I hope others do too.

By Mark Bradford

Labels: , , , ,

Sunday, April 12, 2009 

Mark-To-Profit

Allow me to start off by illustrating my sentiment from January 2008 – February 2009: I hate banks and I have no idea what they are doing. I hate anything financially related.



But, I find myself not hating banks anymore. What happened? I’ve got 8 leading indicators that people might be aware of but aren’t catching headlines like they should be and I’ve got 4 monster catalysts. What do I know, I’m only the Motley Fool’s Hottest Player going into Easter Weekend. Further, My entire college tuition is riding on the stock market.



Leading Indicators:



1. Federal Funds Target Rate is nil. This means that banks can borrow as cheaply as they ever have been able to. When you borrow at these interest rates, the net present value of any opportunity where you can at least get your money back is a good one to be taking.
2. Banks as a sector cheap from a historical perspective. I wonder why? Fear, panic, disorder, lack of trust, lack of speculation --- just a few ideas.
3. There is tons of cash on the sidelines. Blood is in the streets. There has definitely been “the slaughtering of the speculator” over the past year and a half. I believe now is the time when the speculator finally gets congratulated.
4. We are up 28% off the bottom according to the S&P500.
5. Global Markets are leading the way. They are up 53.4% according to EEM [iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (ETF)].
6. My uncle who is a banker panicked and sold out of the market at Dow 6700.
7. Mark-to-market has been relaxed to ‘mark-to-whatever-makes-us-look-good.’ Aka: Mark-To-Profit.
8. The uptick rule might come back. In my opinion, this isn’t necessary at this point.



Monster Catalysts:
1. Citigroup and Bank of America said they were profitable in the first 2 months of 2009. Great! Now they can do whatever they want to their balance sheet with the relaxation of mark-to-market. What does that imply? How can you lose money when you get to put whatever you want on a balance sheet? Especially if you’re a bank and you thoroughly understand how to crunch numbers and make them look favorable, you’re going to be looking really good now. It’s the Enron dilemma of “mark-to-model.” I could come up with some great spreadsheet models that make me look like an undervalued opportunity.
2. It’s already happening! Wells-Fargo is coming in crushing analysts. Well, of course! What do you expect when you can borrow money to invest in opportunities and you’re not paying a significant interest rate on what you borrow?
3. Analysts are going to get caught with their pants down this week. Earnings are coming out. Tuesday: Goldman Sachs; Thursday: JPMorgan Chase; Friday: Citigroup. There is so much upside that they simply can’t see because they don’t really understand what’s going on. If they did, they wouldn’t be analysts. They’d be retired. What does this do? This sets up an opportunity for some huge price target upgrades, usually after the price actually appreciates to that target. Have you noticed that analyst price targets seem to be a lagging indicator of stock prices --- or is it just me?
4. Debt upgrades. Once Mark-To-Profit kicks into full swing, the ratings agencies have to think a little more highly of these poor banks.



How to play this one:



I like a couple insurance agencies in decreasing order: CNO, GNW, PNX. I think GNW didn’t need the TARP anyway. That’s a sign of strength. Am I the only one seeing this?



I like a couple bank plays, also in decreasing order: FAS, C, BAC. I’m not into the Wells-Fargo’s and the Goldman Sach’s or even JP Morgan’s of the world --- where is the upside there? 100%? Not enough.



Disclosure: Glen Bradford owns CNO, GNW, PNX, FAS, C, BAC and/or options on them in his and his investor’s accounts.

Labels: , , , , , , ,

 

Financials Set To Soar

Allow me to start off by illustrating my sentiment from January 2008 – February 2009: I hate banks and I have no idea what they are doing. I hate anything financially related.



But, I find myself not hating banks anymore. What happened? I’ve got 8 leading indicators that people might be aware of but aren’t catching headlines like they should be and I’ve got 4 monster catalysts. What do I know, I’m only the Motley Fool’s Hottest Player going into Easter Weekend. Further, My entire college tuition is riding on the stock market.



Leading Indicators:



1. Federal Funds Target Rate is nil. This means that banks can borrow as cheaply as they ever have been able to. When you borrow at these interest rates, the net present value of any opportunity where you can at least get your money back is a good one to be taking.
2. Banks as a sector cheap from a historical perspective. I wonder why? Fear, panic, disorder, lack of trust, lack of speculation --- just a few ideas.
3. There is tons of cash on the sidelines. Blood is in the streets. There has definitely been “the slaughtering of the speculator” over the past year and a half. I believe now is the time when the speculator finally gets congratulated.
4. We are up 28% off the bottom according to the S&P500.
5. Global Markets are leading the way. They are up 53.4% according to EEM [iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (ETF)].
6. My uncle who is a banker panicked and sold out of the market at Dow 6700.
7. Mark-to-market has been relaxed to ‘mark-to-whatever-makes-us-look-good.’
8. The uptick rule might come back. In my opinion, this isn’t necessary at this point.



Monster Catalysts:
1. Citigroup and Bank of America said they were profitable in the first 2 months of 2009. Great! Now they can do whatever they want to their balance sheet with the relaxation of mark-to-market. What does that imply? How can you lose money when you get to put whatever you want on a balance sheet? Especially if you’re a bank and you thoroughly understand how to crunch numbers and make them look favorable, you’re going to be looking really good now. It’s the Enron dilemma of “mark-to-model.” I could come up with some great spreadsheet models that make me look like an undervalued opportunity.
2. It’s already happening! Wells-Fargo is coming in crushing analysts. Well, of course! What do you expect when you can borrow money to invest in opportunities and you’re not paying a significant interest rate on what you borrow?
3. Analysts are going to get caught with their pants down this week. Earnings are coming out. Tuesday: Goldman Sachs; Thursday: JPMorgan Chase; Friday: Citigroup. There is so much upside that they simply can’t see because they don’t really understand what’s going on. If they did, they wouldn’t be analysts. They’d be retired. What does this do? This sets up an opportunity for some huge price target upgrades, usually after the price actually appreciates to that target. Have you noticed that analyst price targets seem to be a lagging indicator of stock prices --- or is it just me?
4. Debt upgrades. Once ‘mark-to-whatever-makes-us-look-good’ kicks into gear, the ratings agencies have to think a little more highly of these poor banks.



How to play this one:



I like a couple insurance agencies in decreasing order: CNO, GNW, PNX. I think GNW didn’t need the TARP anyway. That’s a sign of strength. Am I the only one seeing this?



I like a couple bank plays, also in decreasing order: FAS, C, BAC. I’m not into the Wells-Fargo’s and the Goldman Sach’s or even JP Morgan’s of the world --- where is the upside there? 100%? Not enough.



Disclosure: Glen Bradford owns CNO, GNW, PNX, FAS, C, BAC and/or options on them in his and his investor’s accounts.

Labels: , , , , , , ,

 

Week of April 12

For those of you who passed simple math, 2+2=4

For those of you who understand a successful merger/acquisition, the goal is the combination of the two companies to yield more than their separate parts, essentially 2+2=5

Anyway, what you saw in Wells Fargo is going to happen over the next 5 weeks to the entire banking sector as well. If you cut the rate at which banks borrow to finance their loans, that increases their profit margin. Expect either a blockbuster quarter or a write off, but the blockbuster is more likely in my opinion.

Get ready to either be positioned in these stocks or miss the boat.

Tuesday: Goldman Sachs

Thursday: JPMorgan Chase

Friday: Citigroup reports

Where is the play? FAS. Further, I like Citigroup over JPM and GS, cause --- it has the most upside.

If I owned AIG, I'd sell out at $5 if it ever gets that high. The old CEO laughed at management's decisions since he left, go figure. Pass the blame.

If you're into insurance, GNW, PNX, and CNO are the ones I'm riding.

Labels: , , , , , , ,

Tuesday, March 10, 2009 

FAS

I'm buying into financials tomorrow, using FAS; anticipating the uptick rule to come back and some sort of dealings with mark to market changing the entire ballgame in favor of the long term investor.

Labels: