Coffee = Overpriced
gmcr, cbou, ddrx --- i dunno. i had a list somewhere of the overpriced coffee stocks. i'm just saying like in Disney's movie Jungle 2 Jungle. Get out of Coffee.
cphi - still like it
chbp - scared, not always profitable
skbi/skbo - will look again later during when the market is open so i can look at the bid/ask. this thing is thinly traded and might be good.
hlf - not cheap enough for me to buy right now, but will likely outperform the market in the next 2 years, revenues sucked last 2 quarters
utvl - this thing is going to the NYSE. Tom suggested that there are more shares than google says there are out there, dont have time to check. mcconnel (purdue professor) suggested 5% appreciation on average before listing and 5% decline in price for 6 months post listing on NYSE.
pcap - like it
acas - like it
mcgc - like it
gnw - like it
cno - like it
ahr - like it
grvy - seems poorly managed. no increase in revenues and yet increased expenses.
gfre - guidance includes dilution, i'm scared!
jadae - most of its income is from its discontinued operations in 2008
sclx - following up with company, added to my sorting list.
utvl - huge growth potential, will it be exercised? i'll buy some
chcg - topside catalyst: franchise strategy, downside force: decreasing profit margins, i'll buy some - i sold at around $1.50 to buy other deals.
gtls - prolly will appreciate in price over the next 2 years. just not enough for me to mention
snen - blah, just don't know. what happens when this loss goes away? is the business growing? you'd think so... but there isn't a very clear trend to me. negative cash from operations lately. lets wait and see .. throw this with nwd
i need to look at
bucy, cedc, midd, and my old stocks again to dump some money into for an investor that wants a safer play.
Now --- for some emails:
First, a picture: I picked the bottom on this one. Luck or skill --- your choice.
So, what do we do now? It’s got a P/E of about 10, maybe a little higher than that. You are getting a 6.4% dividend here. The trailing 12 month P/E is 14.
Historically trades between $60-$70. Was as high as $50 recently.
You’re looking at 1 year upside potential of about 75% (maybe going higher than where they traded historically cause they picked up National City). I think we could very easily sell out of this around $50 here shortly --- or you could just bail now and try to ride something else with more upside.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
T --- I didn’t bet on this one. I don’t know whether it will outperform or underperform. If you don’t know, don’t bet.
You bought it at $20, which baffles me because its 52-week low was $20.90 according to Google. So, you got the bottom, luck or skill.
There’s a double bottom on this one in October and March around $21. They just increased their dividend in Q1 2009. Their dividend is sustainable and pays 6.9%. There was some huge acquisition or something at the beginning of 2007 that exploded revenues. I think from mid 2007 to mid 2008, this was overpriced because of this abnormal growth.
I’d be getting out at $30. I might even be willing to jump ship at $25 depending on if there is something else out there that’s better.
I just downloaded all the larger companies I was looking at this fall. Out of the batch of them, there are probably over half that are still improving as if there wasn’t a crisis, but are priced now as if the crisis is supposed to hurt business.
I’ll be sorting through them here shortly and if I think I can choose 2-3 of the best to replace PNC, that’s what I’ll do.
----------------------------------------------------------------
UTVL-Good call on the details. It is incredibly undervalued compared to its competitors. It just got listed on NYSE amex. There is some dilution.
Their SSD segment is losing sales fast. I don't know if that's due to cannibalization or what. Other segments are growing well. This last quarter they did not grow rev or earnings, but I think that's probably due to seasonality and the worst of the recession.
I'll probably invest a little and see what new things develop.
Tom
On Sun, May 24, 2009 at 10:02 AM, Bradford, Glen Richard wrote:
I think you are wrong here.
There were about 41M shares outstanding according to their 10K.
Then they reverse split on march 31, 2009. http://www.pinksheets.com/edgar/GetFilingHtml?FilingID=6513635
I think google’s share count is right.
What are your thoughts?
Glen
From: tcorm [mailto:tcorso] On Behalf Of Tom Corson-Knowles
Sent: Saturday, May 23, 2009 1:04 PM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: UTVL
Hey,
UTVL has the wrong market cap shown on google finance. There are 38M share outstanding, so the real book value is almost $230 M. With $18M expected income for 2009, before dilution, that P/E seems high at over 20.
Tom
---------------------------------------------------
The price goes up about 5% on the announcement and transition weeks, then trails off 5% over the next 6 weeks
________________________________________
From: Bradford, Glen Richard
Sent: Sun 5/24/2009 10:09 AM
To: McConnell, John J
Subject: OTCBB to NYSE Stock
Hey John,
First, I’d like to thank you for passing me in Finance the 3rd module this year. Second, I want your opinion on the average stock price changes on a company that goes from OTCBB to the NYSE.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hi Glen,
if you like ACAS, you'll love PCAP.
PCAP is in the same business, but has far fewer bad loans and a lower price/book, P/E and debt/equity.
They have violated bank covenants also, but only barely and recently.
Debt/equity is .96 vs 1.58 at ACAS, P/E (2010) 2.3 vs 4.2, price/book .22 vs .26
Slightly more expensive, but not much, is MCGC, which is in compliance with all covenants and will resume dividends earlier than the other two.
Among the chinese stocks, OPAI.OB is still trading at a P/E of 2, and half of book despite 30% growth.
I enjoy your articles very much. They are the best of all on SA, and I made a lot of money thanks to you.
Regards,
Fred
cphi - still like it
chbp - scared, not always profitable
skbi/skbo - will look again later during when the market is open so i can look at the bid/ask. this thing is thinly traded and might be good.
hlf - not cheap enough for me to buy right now, but will likely outperform the market in the next 2 years, revenues sucked last 2 quarters
utvl - this thing is going to the NYSE. Tom suggested that there are more shares than google says there are out there, dont have time to check. mcconnel (purdue professor) suggested 5% appreciation on average before listing and 5% decline in price for 6 months post listing on NYSE.
pcap - like it
acas - like it
mcgc - like it
gnw - like it
cno - like it
ahr - like it
grvy - seems poorly managed. no increase in revenues and yet increased expenses.
gfre - guidance includes dilution, i'm scared!
jadae - most of its income is from its discontinued operations in 2008
sclx - following up with company, added to my sorting list.
utvl - huge growth potential, will it be exercised? i'll buy some
chcg - topside catalyst: franchise strategy, downside force: decreasing profit margins, i'll buy some - i sold at around $1.50 to buy other deals.
gtls - prolly will appreciate in price over the next 2 years. just not enough for me to mention
snen - blah, just don't know. what happens when this loss goes away? is the business growing? you'd think so... but there isn't a very clear trend to me. negative cash from operations lately. lets wait and see .. throw this with nwd
i need to look at
bucy, cedc, midd, and my old stocks again to dump some money into for an investor that wants a safer play.
Now --- for some emails:
First, a picture: I picked the bottom on this one. Luck or skill --- your choice.
So, what do we do now? It’s got a P/E of about 10, maybe a little higher than that. You are getting a 6.4% dividend here. The trailing 12 month P/E is 14.
Historically trades between $60-$70. Was as high as $50 recently.
You’re looking at 1 year upside potential of about 75% (maybe going higher than where they traded historically cause they picked up National City). I think we could very easily sell out of this around $50 here shortly --- or you could just bail now and try to ride something else with more upside.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
T --- I didn’t bet on this one. I don’t know whether it will outperform or underperform. If you don’t know, don’t bet.
You bought it at $20, which baffles me because its 52-week low was $20.90 according to Google. So, you got the bottom, luck or skill.
There’s a double bottom on this one in October and March around $21. They just increased their dividend in Q1 2009. Their dividend is sustainable and pays 6.9%. There was some huge acquisition or something at the beginning of 2007 that exploded revenues. I think from mid 2007 to mid 2008, this was overpriced because of this abnormal growth.
I’d be getting out at $30. I might even be willing to jump ship at $25 depending on if there is something else out there that’s better.
I just downloaded all the larger companies I was looking at this fall. Out of the batch of them, there are probably over half that are still improving as if there wasn’t a crisis, but are priced now as if the crisis is supposed to hurt business.
I’ll be sorting through them here shortly and if I think I can choose 2-3 of the best to replace PNC, that’s what I’ll do.
----------------------------------------------------------------
UTVL-Good call on the details. It is incredibly undervalued compared to its competitors. It just got listed on NYSE amex. There is some dilution.
Their SSD segment is losing sales fast. I don't know if that's due to cannibalization or what. Other segments are growing well. This last quarter they did not grow rev or earnings, but I think that's probably due to seasonality and the worst of the recession.
I'll probably invest a little and see what new things develop.
Tom
On Sun, May 24, 2009 at 10:02 AM, Bradford, Glen Richard
I think you are wrong here.
There were about 41M shares outstanding according to their 10K.
Then they reverse split on march 31, 2009. http://www.pinksheets.com/edgar/GetFilingHtml?FilingID=6513635
I think google’s share count is right.
What are your thoughts?
Glen
From: tcorm [mailto:tcorso] On Behalf Of Tom Corson-Knowles
Sent: Saturday, May 23, 2009 1:04 PM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: UTVL
Hey,
UTVL has the wrong market cap shown on google finance. There are 38M share outstanding, so the real book value is almost $230 M. With $18M expected income for 2009, before dilution, that P/E seems high at over 20.
Tom
---------------------------------------------------
The price goes up about 5% on the announcement and transition weeks, then trails off 5% over the next 6 weeks
________________________________________
From: Bradford, Glen Richard
Sent: Sun 5/24/2009 10:09 AM
To: McConnell, John J
Subject: OTCBB to NYSE Stock
Hey John,
First, I’d like to thank you for passing me in Finance the 3rd module this year. Second, I want your opinion on the average stock price changes on a company that goes from OTCBB to the NYSE.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hi Glen,
if you like ACAS, you'll love PCAP.
PCAP is in the same business, but has far fewer bad loans and a lower price/book, P/E and debt/equity.
They have violated bank covenants also, but only barely and recently.
Debt/equity is .96 vs 1.58 at ACAS, P/E (2010) 2.3 vs 4.2, price/book .22 vs .26
Slightly more expensive, but not much, is MCGC, which is in compliance with all covenants and will resume dividends earlier than the other two.
Among the chinese stocks, OPAI.OB is still trading at a P/E of 2, and half of book despite 30% growth.
I enjoy your articles very much. They are the best of all on SA, and I made a lot of money thanks to you.
Regards,
Fred
Labels: ahr, CHCG, CNO, GNW, mcgc, OPAI, pcap, sclx, snen, utvl
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