Glen Doth Know

Huge Buy Right now.

Labels: AOB

Just glanced at it,

SSRX

The PE looks high and there are some figures that look bad. Let’s dig.

For the third quarter 2008, 3SBio expects total net revenues of approximately RMB68.2 million (US$10.0 million), representing an increase of 21.6% over the third quarter 2007. For the same period, 3SBio expects to recognize a one-time impairment loss of approximately RMB19.0 million (US$2.7 million). This impairment loss was related to a US$3.0 million aggregate principal amount of Floating Rate Credit Linked Notes due on January 21, 2009 (the "Notes") held by the Company.

So, the normalized EPS is $0.492 =.127*4

PE is 13. It’s cheap for the growth your getting. Good find. Top side is a double.

Looks like it’s cheap and growing to me. But, I like AOB more. The PE is less than 9. AOB is cheaper and it’s growing just as fast if not faster and when you read into their last Q3 statement, you can tell they’re guiding lower than what’s realistic. Top side is a triple.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/105130-american-oriental-bioengineering-inc-q3-2008-earnings-call-transcript?page=-1

in a weak market, they’re buying their competition: The Nuo Hua and GHK acquisitions

Hongbo Lu – Piper Jaffray
Okay, thank you. Then I want to squeeze in two more questions, if I may. For the guidance $200 million and then I think Lily said, you said that does not include Nuo Hua and GHK numbers. So, since the deals were closed at the end of October, your fourth quarter earnings probably would potentially included revenue contribution from these two new acquisitions. So, what is expectation for your fourth quarter, contribution from these two subsidiaries?
(Spoken in Chinese)
Wilfred Chow
Yes, first of all, I think we are being very conservative in our net income expectation, and you are right because we have close Nuo Hua and GHK, these two companies is actually under our control end of October. We will begin to consolidate their financial operating income as well as net income starting November.
As I said, we are still trying to integrate this company, and for Nuo Hua in particular we are more concentrated on their net income contribution and we are currently expecting a phenomenal contribution from Nuo Hua and I don’t want to distract the – I mean the cover the our existing business contribution. So that is why we are not giving the guidance right now.
Hope this helps if it doesn’t let me know --- I’ve got cash tied up in other ideas --- and I’m watching for an oil and treasury reversal,

Thanks for the tip,

The downside to AOB:

1. The stock hasn’t fallen as significantly as other stocks in this climate. There are a bunch of stocks down 80%+
2. Their earnings that they report are too predictable --- could this be company number manipulation? Probably.

Glen Bradford
Purdue University
Masters in Business Administration
Bachelors in Industrial Engineering
School of Engineering Student Ambassador

www.glenbradford.com


From: Richard Pierson
Sent: Monday, December 29, 2008 4:33 PM
To: gbradfo
Subject: Your Article Alpha

Enjoyed reading your material. ? I thought China pegged their currency to the dollar. This action was unloved several years ago by the US but of recent has been to China's disadvantage...

My own work brought me to AOB but also to one you made no mention of....SSRX, your thoughts?

Labels: AOB, SSRX

Looks to me like the market bottomed.

PE was roughly 7. We've had lots of ridiculous stimulus.

I haven't looked at the russian market, but it will bottom when oil bottoms.

Labels: AOB, BUCY, EJ, GHII, MTW, SOHU, XIN

Half Down! Let's make 100% to break-even!

Just For the record, In case you can't read my main holdings changes by looking at my Validation pictures, here's my open positions. I figure --- I'll list them and discuss them afterwords.

Quantity/Ticker/Strike Price

I could only get BEAV for April 2008
April 2009
2 BEAV 25,
2 BEAV 15,

January 2010
2 NDAQ 35,
2 SIGM 20,
5 AOB 10,
3 CEDC 30,
3 YGE 10,
3 MTW 12.5,

January 2011
3 AOB 7.5

Out of them all, I'm bearish the most on SIGM --- it was a long shot and I knew it. I wouldn't buy it right now --- I blew it. Also, the YGE is a Obama play. It's one of the cheaper solar stocks that's actually killing profitability figures. That's one to watch for.

As the market has been punching me in the stomach and taking half of my starting value away from me, I feel that I've been positioning myself in order to take full advantage of the "Hulk" effect. I've been placing lay-away orders on companies in similar positions as me, and slowly losing purchasing power doing it. I think that even if my option positions crumble to nothing, the rest of the portfolio's I manage will surely rebound with returns greater than you'll see from the Dow 30. Will my option positions crumble to nothing? Doubt it. I make highly calculated bets. Most reports predict the end to this by the end of 2009. I'm just trying to take advantage of that by riding my companies through the roof that I've been yelling about all along.

I've been reading reports lately, I'm incredibly bullish. Hedge fund investor (cash flow and holdings) consensus reports indicate a capitulation point --- so do Insider transaction reports, as well as mutual fund cash flow and cash holdings reports.

Obama's going to throw $500B at the US consumer. If I had a bet right now, bet oil has bottomed. I called the top. Now's the bottom. It's at $55 I think today. It's back in the realm of normal trading --- as indicated by the fact OPEC is cutting production.

Labels: AOB, CEDC, MTW, YGE

I am buying YGE, MTW and AOB calls tomorrow morning.

Labels: AOB, MTW, YGE

Greg

I bought the calls at an average price of $6, they’re at about $9-11 now.

Anyway, tomorrow I’m buying calls on MTW and AOB. CEDC is still the way to go if you’re going to choose one I think. If you’re playing GHII put a limit buy order in at $0.11 or less and pray you catch it soon, cause their CFO is going to go promote them at some banquet where a bunch of small companies go.

Making rules you refuse to deviate from eliminates opportunities that come once a lifetime. That said, I broke rules these last three months that cost me a lot of money --- oh well.

Historically, the market goes up in oct/nov/dec of election year. I have no idea what will happen. I just play odds and buy stocks that are cheap relative to the market. Also, I think that by January 2010 --- I hope to be out of the woods as far as the ‘recession’ goes.

Glen

From: tubertini
Sent: Tuesday, November 04, 2008 7:38 PM
To: Bradford, Glen Richard
Subject: Re: one stock

Unfortunately, options is not an area where I have a lot of knowledge. However, I plan on purchasing shares of GHII sometime this week. I wanted to do a little more research and also wait and see the reaction after the election although I may risk a significant move up.

I see that you bought the Jan 2010 calls of CEDC at $30. What price are they at now? Also, the market has moved up significantly over the past few days. What are your thoughts on what may happen through the rest of the year. I was actually hoping for a pull back so that I can pick up some of the stocks I have been looking at for a lower price.

In addition, the one thing I struggle with is adhering to a set of metrics to make my investment decisions. Do you have a specific set of metrics that you rely on and do not deviate from? Do you use some type of spread sheet to perform your analysis on.

Sorry for all the questions seeing that you are the one that was emailing me the question to begin with.


Thanks.

Greg T

Labels: AOB, MTW

Looking at the numbers, I started with a net input of about $89K I rode that up about 20% --- and then recieved knock out blows into and through "Black October." I cut out my Trailing stops and rode my portfolio down to $55K (down 40% from the start and probably down about 50% from the peak). Throughout the whole thing, I shifted assets into my positions that were plummeting the fastest --- and I began buying January 2010 Calls in the accounts that I could when my dad and friends were telling me I was an idiot. That's what I've been doing. If I wasn't playing with college money and my investors accounts were set up to margin and buy calls, I'd have leveraged up more --- for better or worse.

"Shoulda-Coulda-Woulda" --- That's the call of wussies. At least I actually did it.

Now that I have experienced this kind of drop first hand... I plan on actually selling stocks when there's lots of negative outlook and monster selloffs early on... and waiting for better prices --- even for ridiculously undervalued priced stocks like mine.

Labels: AOB, BEAV, CEDC, NDAQ

Dario,

PCP and MTW are the two of those that I trust the least. I’m waiting on earnings on MTW, but PCP is pretty much hoping that the Boeing strike will end soon. I’ve got a pretty long time horizon and history is telling me to be optimistic. When the market bottoms (if it hasn’t already) it could either surge up, or just meander around and not go anywhere. There’s a lot of fear in the market, more than most market commentators “have ever seen.” According to Ben Graham, the market price of a stock can be broken down into three factors:

1. Intrinsic value (fundamentals on balance sheet)
2. Future growth expectations (income statement projections)
3. Market factors (fear, technical analysis, etc) --- Hugely over weighted in times of widespread panic and fear --- like now.

I try to find companies that have very strong 1 and 2’s and very negative 3’s. I figure companies that make a lot of money and should only be helped by the changing socioeconomic tides should eventually reflect that in their share price; but I don’t expect them to reflect this in their price very soon. Am I selling? No; but it may appear so. I’m assuming that the fear will have dissipated 1 year from now. I’m slowly leveraging my portfolio for a bull run by slowly shifting from stock to long calls (January 2010) on a select few companies in my portfolio.

There’s still a lot of overpriced companies out there; just try not to own any of those.

CEDC should be worth $175, but I’d consider selling at $75
AOB should be worth $20, but the asian stocks are all tracking around ¼ of the value of the rest of the stocks (why, I don’t know, so I’m overweighted now in asian stocks)

For the rest, a good rule of thumb is when the annual growth rate (5 year projected) gets close to the PE ratio OR PEG ratio > 1, sell. But make sure to watch the financial statements for signs of weakness.

Hope this helps?

Glen

From: Dario Visnjic
Sent: Friday, October 24, 2008 6:15 PM
To: gbradfo
Subject: Stocks

Hey Glen

Just read all your article on your website and Stockpickr. Thanks for all the recommendations. I read about the Buy Google and Apple and you said sell Google at $500 and Apple at $160, if am not mistaking. I own some stock that you had in your articles and when do you recommend that I sell AOB, VDSI, PCP, KCI, MTW, and CEDC. I got those from your articles. Also I own JPM, JpMorgan & Chase. When od you think I should let it go.

If you coudl please write back and let me know what you think.

Thanks
________________________________________
When your life is on the go—take your life with you. Try Windows Mobile® today

Labels: AOB, CEDC, MTW, VDSI