Glen Doth Know

Yeah, I was actually strategizing if I was going to blog about my findings anymore since I'm running a hedge fund. bottom line, it's something I like to do... and I also like to write for thestreet and seekingalpha and run around on ihub.

so, i'm going to keep doing what I like to do.

apwr- yuck
holi- yuck
cpst - yuck
ceua - 30% growth rate, p/e of 9, 2x book value
llfh - 25% growth rate, p/e of 8, 2.5x book value
anrgf - no clue
sutr - 30% growth clouded by recession, P/E of 5
wemu - 100% growth this year, 30% into the future prolly, P/E of 9
aemd - icky
ceua - p/e of 9, microcap for a couple years yet.
niv - growth of 20%, P/E of 10
bhrt - icky
qgp - yoink, yuck
blsw - icky
xsnx - nope
lege - nope
etak - nope
rxii - nope
npws - hype + potential? i don't care... waiting on this one.
gsi - looking into this one
csgh news
cphi news
yhgg - big potential pinkie, better than SIAF in my opinion
ciwt - expensive for my taste
chio - expensive for my taste
sutr - dip in fundies and already on the nasdaq
ors - still a/r hurting
caei - lots of upside, but still not cheap
mbrx - not profitable
cheh - not a stock
cga - expensive
cdii - expensive
ceua - expensive
rino - will likely outperform the market and probably pull 200% in the next 2 years, not enough for me seeing other opportunities
jngw - hurting, check Q2 earnings
chbo - no revenues, i just threw up in my mouth
ddr- payed out preferred dividend
inmd - too expensive for this type of investing climate
UNG – not interested
SD – not interested
HGT – looks interesting, prolly an 8% yielder. Upside is $25, not enough for me
NGLPF - dont like it
CPTC - dont like it
domr - no track record
vlov - no volume, but looks to have a p/e of around 5
pmi - and risk-o was his name-o
spng - appears to be a $100M company, price says that too, and lots of potential growth. not cheap enough right now
octi - no revenues
cagc - not cheap enough, but growth of 33% NEG CASH FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES
jngw - revisit in Q2
zolt - too expensive
zagg - wayyyy expensive

pulled the following from some crazy analytical guy that sells ideas that will in my opinion beat the market, but who cares about marginally beating the market? I don't. Not now, not when I can make 200% in 4 months.
* Kirby Corporation (KEX): Strong Interest (93%), Peter Lynch-based model
* Diana Shipping (DSX): Strong Interest (93%), Peter Lynch-based model
* Overseas Shipping (OSG): Strong Interest (93%), Peter Lynch-based model; Some Interest (90%), Joseph Piotroski-based model
* TBS International (TBSI): Strong Interest (93%), Peter Lynch-based model
* International Shipholding (ISH): Strong Interest (93%), Peter Lynch-based model; Some Interest (83%), Motley Fool-based model
* SEACOR Holdings (CKH): Some Interest (86%), Benjamin Graham-based model; Some Interest (74%), Peter Lynch-based model

kex - not interested --- too expensive + turnaround
dsx - dry bulk - interesting, but i think china is bidding these up in the short term and so i like FREE, SBLK, DAC more
osg - looks appealingly cheap with high growth, will look deeper
tbsi - not profitable last quarter, so more risky, but i picked outperform in CAPS (not real money)
ish - volatile stock price, buy below 18 and sell above 22 seems like a good gig ... i might be doing it - did it with CAEI for a couple "20% in 3 day" pops
ckh - price looks a lot like the baltic drybulk index. too expensive. no way.

my thoughts on the following list, i'm only going to cover ones i havent covered.
ABAT, AKRK, BKYI, CAEI, CCTR, CHFI, CHGY, CNOA, CSGH, CYXN, ETFC, GHII, LTHU, LTUS, NWD, ORS, XING

abat - too expensive
byki - too expensive
cctr - well... scam, or deal of a life time? referenced nmkt too. looks interesting, see below
cctr - revisited immediately - 110,944,194 shares outstanding, P/E > 50. not a growth story, not interested
lthu - haha NO WAY
NMKT - revisited again, pink sheets, and they've got videos from this really clean cut guy in a suit with what he thinks are good mba presentation skills. i hate these people. empty suits, but maybe i'm wrong here, bottom line is i am risk averse., their lead people make $200,000+, and share dilution is out the butt, screw them
siaf - still a pink sheet, seeks quotation on the OTCBB. cool. but looks like 52M shares outstanding yields a market cap of 37M, which upts the p/E higher than 5 and P/S > 2. i'm not interested
mtxx - down huge, for a reason. not interested.. icky -- but if you wanna dig deeper, let me know. prolly will go up above $5.70

aib - whoah nilly. why haven't i looked into this sooner.
ire - whoah nilly. why haven't i looked into this sooner.
txic - looks like a forward looking p/e of 3.58
hwd - wow - the motley fool keeps sucking less in their newsletter picks. but hell, they are getting better. this one will outperform and be a multi-bagger.

ACAS - If American Capital survives, let’s see here. They are paying out stock as a dividend. Looks like a $200M dividend ballpark. Just assume that none of this dividend is cash. So now they throw out another 50M shares. If they do this 3 times, that’s 350M shares outstanding and a current market cap of 1.361B
Still cheap in my book, but I’d take the price back in 2006 and say $35 is your high point, so with 50% dilution, $17.50 is your new high point. So, I’m saying banks are fairly valued down 50% from where they were, so I’d be out at $9 unless the market turns up big and they aren’t diluting.
Lazy analysis is better than anything an analyst can do for you.


chgi - Yeah it’s a pretty compelling story as they already have money making lines…and given the fact they’re the only company in China with the ability to produce “nuclear graphite”. The gov’t in China is currently building 40 nuclear reactors at 12 facilities throughout China by 2015. CHGI is the only publicly traded Chinese company with the technology to produce this type of graphite.
cpe
- looks cheap, but i can't figure out


China Real Estate Opportunities SA
(Public, LON:CREO)

chump of the day
http://finance.yahoo.com/special-edition/active-investor/options-beyond-fear

philip guziec
http://www.moneyshow.com/directory/speaker.asp?speakerid=5E54BF2B5F7547959B039BA50831C736

Being the CFO for OPAI
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=208628&t=01000000000214846910

Labels: ACAS, aib, chgi, ire, llfh, wemu

100% in 1 Month Financials
By
Glen Bradford

I think that if you’re a professional money manager and you don’t make 100% return in 1 year starting today --- you should look into other forms of employment.

Jim Cramer is right. I’m going to stand up and shoot for 100% in 1 month with a couple stocks. All of them are set for huge gains when the mutual funds grab them at $5.

Conseco (CNO) --- I’ve been yelling about this one since $0.33 when I backed up the truck. I came up with a 2009 EPS of $0.85 weeks before the analyst updated his estimate to include the restructure I forecasted. You too can ride this to $7 --- more than 100%.

Genworth Financial (GNW) --- They didn’t need the TARP. That’s a sign of strength. Just popped to $5. Next stop: $12. Get ahead of the curve and allocate your holdings where the money is heading next. Don’t wait!

American Capital (ACAS) --- I am anticipating a restructure of their current debt obligations. Note that this can bring back a huge yield if you sit tight. Odds are the restructure will eat out of short term (1-2 years) profit margins, but the stock price will soar. $8 is just around the corner.

I don’t respect people that recommend things that they themselves do not own. That’s why I’m long all the companies mentioned in this article. If you’re interested in banks, shoot the middle of the road and start with the ones that are down the most over the last 2 years and up the most over the last 2 months. That way you’ll pick up bargain banks that hopefully aren’t dead beats. A couple that I own are Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) and Huntington Bancshares (HBAN).

Disclosure: Glen and his investors own CNO, GNW, ACAS, FITB, HBAN

Glen Bradford
Purdue Industrial Engineer
Masters in Business Administration
www.glenbradford.com

Labels: ACAS, CNO, FITB, GNW, HBAN

Everyone is deriving absolutely idiotic conclusions on ACAS.

American Capital's Board of Directors will make a decision on the allocation of the dividend between cash and stock which will be announced at the time of declaration.

They also got approved the possibility of 4 stock splits a year and usually pay a divided each quarter.

1+1+1+1=4.

I see stock dividends in the near future as they restructure their debt covenants.

I hope that the idiots out there are SELL SELL SELL, I'll BUY BUY BUY.

I'll watch the short term gaming on this one. I might sell out and buy in lower. That usually makes sense, right? Thought so.

Fear the Idiots. It makes no sense to run headstrong into a "poorly founded" stampede, cause you're still going to get knocked to the ground like in the Lion King.

Labels: ACAS

All I have to say is... wow! To be honest, I'm never to sure about what's going to happen. But, if it looks stormy outside or your grandfather's knees start hurting (a signal of lower pressure, and for you non-geologists/weather familiar people that means that you're likely close to a storm front. See, high pressure zones run clear skies usually.). Where was I going with this? If you have an undervalued company... If you have a GlenBradford.com undervalued company and price action is starting to take effect, get ready. My companies these days are undervalued by around 700% on average.

No, as my roomate Mazen would put it --- I am not blowing smoke into your a$$hole. They teach us discounted cash flows in MBA school and then they tell us to forget about using them to make stock market investment decisions. The lense I like to look through is the following. Imagine I am a corporate officer of my own company GlenBradford. Now Imagine that I have several projects all with fairly predictable future cash streams attached to them. Wouldn't it make sense to put down the least amount of money possible to get the most back?

Anyway, Below is my radar and a couple stocks you should watch immediately: GHII, ACAS, CHFI, PUDC. They are catching interest.

Labels: ACAS, CHFI, GHII, PUDC