Glen Doth Know

Just glanced at it,

SSRX

The PE looks high and there are some figures that look bad. Let’s dig.

For the third quarter 2008, 3SBio expects total net revenues of approximately RMB68.2 million (US$10.0 million), representing an increase of 21.6% over the third quarter 2007. For the same period, 3SBio expects to recognize a one-time impairment loss of approximately RMB19.0 million (US$2.7 million). This impairment loss was related to a US$3.0 million aggregate principal amount of Floating Rate Credit Linked Notes due on January 21, 2009 (the "Notes") held by the Company.

So, the normalized EPS is $0.492 =.127*4

PE is 13. It’s cheap for the growth your getting. Good find. Top side is a double.

Looks like it’s cheap and growing to me. But, I like AOB more. The PE is less than 9. AOB is cheaper and it’s growing just as fast if not faster and when you read into their last Q3 statement, you can tell they’re guiding lower than what’s realistic. Top side is a triple.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/105130-american-oriental-bioengineering-inc-q3-2008-earnings-call-transcript?page=-1

in a weak market, they’re buying their competition: The Nuo Hua and GHK acquisitions

Hongbo Lu – Piper Jaffray
Okay, thank you. Then I want to squeeze in two more questions, if I may. For the guidance $200 million and then I think Lily said, you said that does not include Nuo Hua and GHK numbers. So, since the deals were closed at the end of October, your fourth quarter earnings probably would potentially included revenue contribution from these two new acquisitions. So, what is expectation for your fourth quarter, contribution from these two subsidiaries?
(Spoken in Chinese)
Wilfred Chow
Yes, first of all, I think we are being very conservative in our net income expectation, and you are right because we have close Nuo Hua and GHK, these two companies is actually under our control end of October. We will begin to consolidate their financial operating income as well as net income starting November.
As I said, we are still trying to integrate this company, and for Nuo Hua in particular we are more concentrated on their net income contribution and we are currently expecting a phenomenal contribution from Nuo Hua and I don’t want to distract the – I mean the cover the our existing business contribution. So that is why we are not giving the guidance right now.
Hope this helps if it doesn’t let me know --- I’ve got cash tied up in other ideas --- and I’m watching for an oil and treasury reversal,

Thanks for the tip,

The downside to AOB:

1. The stock hasn’t fallen as significantly as other stocks in this climate. There are a bunch of stocks down 80%+
2. Their earnings that they report are too predictable --- could this be company number manipulation? Probably.

Glen Bradford
Purdue University
Masters in Business Administration
Bachelors in Industrial Engineering
School of Engineering Student Ambassador

www.glenbradford.com


From: Richard Pierson
Sent: Monday, December 29, 2008 4:33 PM
To: gbradfo
Subject: Your Article Alpha

Enjoyed reading your material. ? I thought China pegged their currency to the dollar. This action was unloved several years ago by the US but of recent has been to China's disadvantage...

My own work brought me to AOB but also to one you made no mention of....SSRX, your thoughts?

Labels: AOB, SSRX

Hey,

I haven't written anything lately cause not much has changed.

If you want to play the January effect, it should happen, but not for the same reasons that it used to. It's probably just going to happen cause the small tech sector is significantly oversold. Expect to see a self fulfilling prophecy.

Also, Oil is set to bottom here shortly, there's a seasonal trend that's going to add upward pressure to the price/barrel. February 25th to May 9th is historically an oil booming period. This could mark a huge turn around. When oil turns, get ready to see global markets turn, especially russia --- that's the big one I'm watching.

I will be calling out the bottom after it happens.

Otherwise, I'm still holding my positions. If the market plummets, I'll leverage up one last time --- but I expect this won't happen.

Labels: CEDC, DXO, RSX

Looks to me like the market bottomed.

PE was roughly 7. We've had lots of ridiculous stimulus.

I haven't looked at the russian market, but it will bottom when oil bottoms.

Labels: AOB, BUCY, EJ, GHII, MTW, SOHU, XIN

Bank of America - Now is a good time to buy January 2011 Calls on BAC.

Also, expect to see HIG beat the market this next week.

It's at $14.59, $20 sounds good. I expect $25. I expect it to be a lot like Citigroup, C.

These ideas are not like my Buffet ideas. But, my roomate wanted my thoughts on the industry for the next week. Also, I hate the autoindustry, but out of them all, I like Ford, F the best. And that's only if they get the bailout they want.

Labels: BAC, C, F, HIG

Hey, in case you read my last post on the price of a barrel of oil, I now would like to revise my last statement. It's going to fall. The countries producing it are fighting and OPEC doesnt seem to have much control over supply.. so they're going to keep production as it is. $50 was a price that made sense as a bottom until I realized that the surplus is increasing and production isn't being cut... because the countries producing and selling are acting foolishly.

i think it will be funny when i fill up my tank next at a $1/gal.