Glen Doth Know

Dean,

I like VSEC, but lets take a look at VSE

VeraSun said it plans to use the net proceeds of the offering for general corporate purposes… what’s that? It’s very indescriptive.

You’re right, from a historical perspective, the revenues kick butt. But, the net incomes don’t follow and this company hasn’t been around that long.

Looks like they produce the E85 alternative gasoline. The short term news is bad. They just sold shares to raise capital for… who knows…?

They are taking a huge net loss this next quarter. Anyway, this thing has been down ever since it IPOed. (This doesn’t matter, just an observation)

I dunno, the net incomes don’t follow the revenues. This isn’t my kind of company. This is a “Turn-Around” They aren’t occurring “one-time” losses. Their loss is because of their operating business.

Thanks for the heads up, but I don’t plan on buying VSE. I could be wrong. I just don’t have any reason to buy besides it’s cheaper today than it was yesterday.

Glen

From: Dean Davis
Sent: Wednesday, September 17, 2008 11:07 AM
To: gbrad
Subject: Verasun

Glen,

I have taken an interest in Verasun based on one of your articles. After reviewing the company's financials and future prospects, I too think they are poised for tremendous growth in the coming years.

With the recent downgrade and third quarter projected losses, these seems like a very good entry point. What are your thoughts on the company given the new data?

Thanks!
Dean

Chuck,

I have AOB priced at $28 with a 30% growth rate, which is way below what it is likely to achieve. The issue with AOB is the EPS dilution which several writers have covered. I just don’t see why share dilution is a problem when the EPS is still growing at 20%. That’s still far better than you can get from most other companies.

Remember that there is a lot of uncertainty when investing abroad. Watching the TV makes me think the sky is falling. But, when I go outside, it’s clear that it’s not. That’s the nature of the market.

Glen

From: Kosel, Chuck
Sent: Wednesday, September 17, 2008 11:53 AM
To: gbra
Subject: AOB

Glen,

I enjoy reading your insight into AOB. I first bought this company back in 2005 when it was about $2. I’ve rode the roller coaster buying and selling it between but have now decided to continue to buy on dips and accumulate. There is just too much potential in this stock not to ride it for the next 5 years.

Continued good fortunes in AOB.

Regards,

Chuck Kosel

David,

Price doesn’t always reflect value. I doubled my holdings yesterday. Good catch on the interest rates. I was excited too. I wrote a new article that mentions XIN over the weekend. Hasn’t been published yet. XIN seems pretty far from going bankrupt, which is where it’s priced. As far as I can tell there’s no reason it should be priced at such a discount.

It’s at $3 cause more people are selling than buying. The question I ask is: Is there a reason?

Lower interest rates are good for XIN and pre-sales seem good for next quarter too. That’s my take.

Glen

From: David
Sent: Tuesday, September 16, 2008 10:47 AM
To: gbra
Subject: What's up with XIN ?

Glen,
Enjoy your contributions to Seeking Alpha. I, too, purchased XIN -- bought it $6.80. Why is it now in the $ 3 range ? To my knowledge, there has not been any press releases regarding major "bad" changes in Chinese housing. XIN announced they will be taking pre-sales of some of their projects in late September. Also, China just lowered their lending interest rate. I would think this would help the housing market.
Just curious as to your thoughts.
Thanks,
David

Thanks,

I do my best. It’s always a learning experience and I’m getting better at making decisions all the time. My current favorites:

AOB, ARD, MTW

Glen

From: Scott
Sent: Thursday, September 11, 2008 10:56 PM
To:
Subject: Your Stock Picks

Hi Glen:

I read your article on Stockpickr.com and decided to visit your site to read more about your investment strategy. I think you have a really great handle on investing…keep up the great work man.

Scott
Reebles, LLC
Don't Ask...Just Register!
www.reebles.com

It's a highly unpredictable company in a very troubled market that the government is cracking down on growth.

That said, it's shown explosive growth and has only gone down in value since it IPOed.

"took a big hit".. not really.. real estate isn't a predictable industry like making other types of products..

From what I understand, it's outperforming its competitors. I'm not planning on selling XIN just because it's cheap. But this one is definitely not as predictable as my other companies... if at all. It was simply too good for me to pass up.



-----Original Message-----
From: Anthony
Sent: Tuesday, September 09, 2008 5:05 PM
To:
Subject: XIN

Hey Glen,

Whats going on with XIN? Took a big hit recently with their 2Q and 2H
'08 results. Im thinking about loading up on XIN now its dropped so
low, you think its a good idea?



Thanks,

Anthony

Predictable and boring is what I look for. I love the companies that the mutual funds don’t even pay attention to and have huge insider ownership. The two books that I would recommend at this point:

Buffetology by Mary Buffet (A book that outlines what Buffet does.. a favorite so far)

The Exceptional Presenter Koegel (A book on presentational skills, not investing).

After that, I’ve read a lot of garbage books, but Peter Lynch’s One Up on Wall Street is also good.. but I’d read it after Buffetology.

I have an abstract.doc file that outlines some of my core beliefs and books, in the stocks folder on my website www.glenbradford.com/files/Stocks

You’re in the car industry. F and GM are your forte. I am trying to stay out of the auto industry. I don’t see it growing much. I think most people have cars these days. The auto industry also takes most of the earnings it has to reinvest.. but I don’t think that there’s much here to return to shareholders as quickly as I look for returns. The market's too saturated. Quick Glance to google: Ford doesnt look profitable. GM doesn't look profitable either. It doesn't make sense to me to buy into a future stream of negative cash flows.

Also... people spend more time shopping for their car than they do for their house or stocks. Also, they only buy cars when they are on sale. That's my take.

Glen

From: rolen
Sent: Tuesday, September 02, 2008 2:23 PM
To: gbr
Subject: General

Glen,

Just a note to let you know that I enjoyed your article in the SB Tribune Tuesday AM. I have read several of your articles and actually appreciate the "layman's" terms you use to make your points, specifically in your response to your reader that thought you sounded like a used car salesman! Many of your thoughts make good sense and it must be somewhat exhilarating to know that your ideas can move markets. Ironically I am in the "used car" business locally and although it has been very good to me, I find it very predicable and boring after 25 years. However, I have began to watch Cramer and study other publications and would enjoy some suggestive reading that you have used as a basis for your general philosophy. One is never too old to learn. I recently bought F and GM as an unschooled man would surmise that these, although not fast movers, are going to explode in the next 6-12 months. Additionally I own WM as I feel the financial sector is poised for the next big surge in growth and profit. NVDA however, kicked my butt a year or so ago and I almost quit playing, but I suppose it is similar to child birth in that 1 year down the road you kind of forget what it felt like! Keep up the good work....Clint

I look for stocks that have exhibited the potential to grow in the past.

I look for stocks that are increasing profits as fast as they are growing their revenues.

I look for stocks that are growing faster than the market.

I look for stocks without debt and a good company track record of reinvesting the ROE –buying companies, stock buybacks, etc.

I look for all of this, underpriced. A rule of thumb is a growth rate that’s higher than the PE ratio (Lynch).

Graham has a Warranted Market Value Equation that I use as well.

http://www.moneychimp.com/articles/valuation/graham.htm

Here’s the list of the stocks that I pulled together tonight…. It’s a great place to start in my opinion since I’ve been actively screening them out of everywhere... and rated them to the top of my list. I haven't sorted them yet. That comes next. I sort them from most favorite to least favorite.

Tickers
midd
ebix
xin
lxu
vsec
ande
apa
kci
adm
wab
ktii
beav
cedc
mtw
ndaq
ctsh
cbi
sohu
pcp
zumz
nvda
ezpw
bucy
nov
ard
air
azz
vdsi
pcr
oii
cas
jakk
mei
oxy
cmtl


Glen

From: JARED
Sent: Tuesday, September 02, 2008 9:26 AM

Subject: please help

Hi Glen,

I came across you website when trying to research stocks and found in researching it, it gave me inspiration. I’ve been attempting to trade stocks for a couple years now with limited success. I’ve really lost a lot of more than I have made by “buying stocks my friends told me about”. I’ve all but given up until I read you website. I would at least like to make my money back that I have lost and I also am in a situation where I need to finish up a degree with limited funds. Would you be willing to share with me your strategy for picking stocks? I would really like to know everything from research to deciding what to invest in.


Thank you very much for any help you can provide,

Jared