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Hello Glen. My name is [redacted]. I am a average retail investor. I am no one of consequence and what I say here is my opinion only. I don’t like to put my name and email address out in blogs. But I did want to contact you and thank you for the updates on Fannie Mae (Freddie Mac).
I got interested in this story around the time I saw Bruce Berkowitz did. I did my research on the topic and did about an hour-long presentation to some investing friends. None of us acted on it at that time.
Months later when the stock price retreated from 5dollars to 3dollars I started buying. With the adverse ruling from Judge Lambreth (whatever his name was; it doesn’t matter now because he made himself a footnote to the story) and the move of the stock price to 1.50, I doubled my position.
Like you, I am looking for ways to buy more shares even at today’s price.
So I am long Fannie Mae and we are clearly right. As you know, that is not a guarantee we will prevail. I turned 50 last year and have seen too many occasions where bureaucratic inertia can allow a mistake to persist for a very, very, very long time. I am looking for ways to buy at this price and hoping to get a better price before final vindication–however long that takes.
“The value investor wants the herd to agree with him. Later.” (James Grant)
I think Bill Ackman and Bruce Berkowitz are the shit. Watched Mr. Ackman’s interviews on Herbalife and can see the same sort of things taking shape with Fannie Mae. The noose is tightening on Herbalife. Time is not their friend. Herbalife used to recruit from the middle class but because of Mr. Ackman’s publicity they have had to focus on the less-informed and more vulnerable. As Mr. Ackman continues doing “God’s work,” Herbalife is having an increasingly difficult time recruiting and moving their product. With hightened scrutiny from other interested parties (governments, regulators, press, investors), Herbalife is running out of room. In public and in private, Mr. Ackman is bringing the full weight of his authority and talent to bear and I believe Herbalife is running out of room and time. There is also the small matter of the Herbalife employees jumping ship and going over to Mr. Ackman to tell him what’s been going on. I believe the time that is causing some of the Fannie Mae investors so much angst is in our favor as it gives Mr. Ackman, Mr. Berkowitz and others time to arrange the chess pieces in such a way as to allow their opponents no other option but to move themselves into a position of check.
I believe the same sorts of things could be going on with Fannie Mae. Time is on our side. There are any number of ways this plays out in our favor–additional amendments as you have mentioned, legal rejection of the conservatorship, legal rejection of the third amendment, realignment of politics and people in ways we can’t imagine. I’ve learned a lot about life through investing. It is said “Politics makes strange bed-fellows.” I have added that in finance the bed-fellows become truly queer. If anyone over the course of my life had bet me I would be on the same side of an issue as Maxine Waters I would’ve lost a lot of money! As you and timhoward717 and others have noted, the crowd and the chorus are growing. The conservatorship is growing weary on more and more people philosophically, financially, and legally. And Mssrs. Ackman and Berkowitz and others closing from other flanks.
You seem to be a young man and so I hope this works in our favor. Though life gets tough and will deliver a number of defeats, I hope you learn from this episode that you can be on the side of good and right and you can win and profit. As I said, I am long Fannie Mae. And I am in ’til the end….
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