Todd,
MTW is priced to grow at -1.2% over the next 5 years. Their Crane group does about 80% of their revenues.
From their last quarterly transcript: “This trend was reflected in our crane backlog, which stood at $3.5 billion at June 30, an increase of 70% over the same period in 2007.”
“The solid backlog also reflects the pay back of our innovation strategy as well as the success of our new products in the marketplace. Our outlook for the Crane segment remains strong through at least the end of 2010, despite the recent decline in U.S. housing market, the softening of commercial in some mature markets and slowing residential construction in Western Europe. We expect to offset these trends as demands for our higher capacity cranes particularly those serving infrastructure and energy application continues to grow in both developed and emerging economy.”
It’s trading way below where it usually does as far as historical price and growth trends are concerned. (As you’re probably aware).
I measure leverage as the ratio of ROA to ROE and then I look at historical debt. By those metrics, they are 31/13, and in the same neighborhood as their competitors.
Fuel prices are lower, commodity prices are lower, demand is probably going to be lower in the near term.
Analysts have it growing anywhere from 7% to 26%. As far as being relatively liquid, in the short term, they can pay current liabilities and really have been paying off long term debt over the past few years.
http://www.forbes.com/finance/2008/08/07/manitowoc-bucyrus-terex-pf-ii-in_ja_0807soapbox_inl.html
http://seekingalpha.com/article/87831-manitowoc-co-inc-q2-2008-earnings-call?page=2
You’re asking the right questions,
Glen
From: Todd.Johnson
Sent: Friday, October 17, 2008 4:37 PM
To: gbradfo
Subject: MTW
Glen,
I saw your article today, “How to take advantage of bad times” and your thoughts on MTW. Closing @ 11.89 today with a P/E multiple of 3.77, it looks really cheap. I was not aware that they typically are conservative on their earnings forecasts, so thank you. What are your thoughts when they report Q3 at the end of the month? Does their sales pipeline look pretty good right now, even with the slowing global economy? Do they depend on very much leverage, or are they relatively liquid? Thanks and have a great weekend.
Todd A. Johnson